The first quarter of the season has been a sobering time for the Redskins.
The Washington Redskins organization, from top to bottom, came into the 2019 season with the belief that they could compete for success, to some degree.
Now, four weeks have gone by, and the Redskins are 0-4. They’re already on their third quarterback, and each loss has seen the margin of defeat increase. The team has displayed an ineptitude on par with the tanking Miami Dolphins, and unlike the Dolphins, this collapse caught Washington entirely by surprise.
There are few ways to spin such an embarrassing stretch into a positive, but if the Redskins keep this pace, they should be able to secure a top three pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, putting themselves in prime position to have maximum leverage, as well as a chance to nab a top college talent. As of now, per OddsShark, Washington has the second-highest odds to land the No. 1 pick.
The Redskins haven’t picked in the top three, without trading up, since 1994. What are the opportunities and stipulations that come with an early first-round pick?
Best player available
The obvious benefit that comes with picking early is getting one’s pick of the litter of the top talents in a given NFL Draft class. The worst teams often have the luxury of picking without the restriction of need, and thus, they can focus solely on one question: Who is the best player available?
Among the teams in contention for the No. 1 overall pick, both the Dolphins and Bengals are heavy favorites to land a quarterback early in 2020. In this sense, drafting Dwayne Haskins in 2019 helped the Redskins, because if the Redskins pick the earliest, out of themselves, the Jets, and the Broncos, then they could be in play for the best non-quarterback in the 2020 NFL Draft.
And no, before you ask, they shouldn’t consider a quarterback in 2020. They should find a coach who’s willing to work with Haskins and see out his development.
As of now, the best non-quarterback in the 2020 NFL Draft class seems to be a unanimous selection. It’s Ohio State’s Chase Young, an edge rusher with outstanding athleticism, power, length, and speed to get around the edge.
Maybe before the 2019 season, the Redskins wouldn’t have considered Young, being that they had Ryan Kerrigan. But Kerrigan’s gotten off to a slow start this year, and he isn’t getting any younger. And the prospect of being able to pick a player like Young at edge is a rare thing. He and Montez Sweat would form a formidable duo with incredible upside.
Much has been made of the Redskins draft position in recent years; situated in the middle of the field, they’d always be stuck with the leftovers from the first tier. But with a top pick, they’d have their choice, and the best player available, regardless of position, can never be ruled out. But for the Redskins, there’s more to it than that.
Managing needs and resources
Best player available is an attractive strategy on the surface, but it doesn’t change the fact that all teams have needs which are more serious than others. Even for the teams that have the opportunity to pick the best player available, managing needs and resources is a necessary step in succeeding at the NFL Draft. Simply throwing darts doesn’t cut it.
The Redskins won’t have an excess of draft selections next year, unless they make a trade or two in the offseason of 2020. As of now, they’re on track to have seven total selections; one in Round 1, one in Round 3, two in Round 4, one in Round 5, and two in Round 7.
The lack of a second-round pick, due to the trade for Montez Sweat in 2019, is the most complicating matter for the Redskins draft strategy. If they want to address a certain position with a top talent more than others, they might only get one chance to do it: At the top of Round 1. Then it’s a long wait to Round 3.
For that reason, unfiltered best player available might not be the most all-encompassing strategy for the 2020 Redskins. There are multiple positions that deserve attention that early. Andrew Thomas is an offensive tackle worth picking that early, Jerry Jeudy is an explosive offensive weapon also worth a top pick, and other exemplary players, like Grant Delpit and Tristan Wirfs, might also deserve attention in the top three or five.
If the Redskins are willing to bump themselves down a bit, in order to acquire more draft assets, and still be in play for players like Henry Ruggs III, Paulson Abedo, Jeffrey Okudah, and others, then they could trade back from the top three. They likely wouldn’t be able to pick a top talent like Young or Thomas in that case, but they’d be able to diversify their solutions, and add more talent overall, supplementing their roster in different areas.
Trading back
As mentioned before, the Redskins would be in prime position to trade back, were they to earn one of the top picks in the 2020 NFL Draft. They need more picks, they already have a first-round quarterback on a rookie deal, and the 2020 NFL Draft is a very strong signal caller class.
Between Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jacob Eason, Joe Burrow, Jake Fromm, Jordan Love, and Jalen Hurts, the 2020 NFL Draft is stocked to the brim with quarterback talent, and there’s a chance that at least five could go in the first round.
The Redskins have no need for a new quarterback, but with an early pick, teams would be battling to give Washington the best offer, in order to move up and get their guy. Even if the Redskins pick after the Dolphins and Bengals, presumably eliminating Tagovailoa and Herbert from the mix, teams would still be fawning over high-upside passers like Burrow, Eason, and Love.
It’s well-known that draft-day trades for quarterbacks can be lucrative ventures for both teams involved. Teams trading up get their chance at a franchise quarterback, and teams trading down get a treasure chest of picks. A treasure chest is exactly what the Redskins need, with a dearth of early-round picks, a quarterback who needs support, a potential coaching search where they need to make themselves attractive, and a rebuild looming on the horizon.
Opportunity for a trade back should be plentiful in the 2020 NFL Draft, were the Redskins to have a top three pick. Teams that could potentially be in search of a new quarterback, minus the Dolphins and Bengals, include the Colts (although Jacoby Brissett has played well thus far), the Raiders, the Panthers, the Titans, the Buccaneers, the Vikings, the Chargers, the Saints, and the Patriots.
Trading a king’s ransom certainly isn’t the style of all those teams, and much of the need designation depends on speculation, as there are twelve games left to go in 2020. But overall, demand should be high, and with a strong quarterback class on the way, tension should be even higher. It’s the kind of situation that bodes well for the seller.
Drafting to build, not to win
Whatever the Redskins do, whether it’s picking the best available player in the top three, or trading back to accumulate assets, they need to understand that they’re not drafting to win right away. They’re drafting to build a winner the right way, and with that process, they must be patient.
Bruce Allen’s belief that the team was “close” in January of 2019 is the reason they’re currently tanking against their will, and battling a Dolphins team that’s actually trying to lose for the No. 1 overall pick. The Redskins are very far away from competing right now, but they can catalyze a quick rebuild by using their positioning to their advantage in the 2020 NFL Draft.
But herein lies the reason why many teams end up picking early for years on end. It’s not just the possession of the early pick that matters. It’s how you use it. There are endless horror stories available to reference the negligence some teams carry with them into the top of the NFL Draft. The last time the Redskins picked in the top three without making a trade, they selected Heath Shuler. Success is by no means a given.
But by inadvertently tanking the 2019 season, the Redskins are putting themselves in a position to springboard off into a new era. Will they be able to take advantage of the complications that come with possessing a sought-after early first-round pick? All they have to do is keep losing, and they’ll get to answer that soon enough.