The annual disappointed stare off into the abyss sure did begin early this season for Redskins fans.
After 20 minutes of euphoria-inducing football that went about as well as anyone rooting for the Burgundy and Gold could have possibly hoped, the Washington Redskins fell back into what has become a predictable pattern of failing to handle prosperity well, leaving the team, coaches and fans muttering the familiar refrain of, “woulda-coulda-shoulda.”
But fear not, Redskins fans. After a wobbly start of my own to this season due to circumstances beyond my control, I’m back for another season of sharing Reality Checks for the team we all love to complain about. This week, I’ll both look back at the roller-coaster that was Philly and try to get you properly prepared for Dallas Week. So without further ado, here are your Philly-Dallas Sandwich Reality Checks.
1. Reality Is: Case Keenum may be a better fit than Alex Smith for Jay Gruden’s offense.
Though Alex Smith had a good first half of his opening game last season in Arizona (and though the team came out with a win last year), any careful observer could tell that Case Keenum seemed to have a better feel for what Jay is trying to do with his offense than Alex showed at any time last year.
Even without Jordan Reed on the field, and with Derrius Guice apparently gimpy, Keenum had a better statistical first half against the Eagles than Alex Smith had at any point last year, and ended up just one missed deep-ball short of an “A” performance. Alex Smith never had one of those last year. Specifically, Keenum’s willingness to take his progressions from deep to short, rather than from short to deep is a significant indicator that he’s more of a Jay Gruden-type of guy than Smith is.
2. Reality Is: Terry McLaurin is the real deal.
We heard about it all offseason, but didn’t get to see anything but a few training camp highlights. But Scary Terry showed us all why the team finally felt they could move on from Josh Doctson. He was that same deep-ball miss by Keenum from a 6-200-2 stat line and real consideration for Offensive Rookie of the Week.
The Redskins haven’t had that kind of potential weapon on their roster since RGIII and Alfred Morris took over the NFC East in 2012. Will Terry McLaurin have some down days? Assuredly. Does he have everything he needs to be a freakish blend of DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon? Yes. There’s reason for real excitement about what the Redskins have in No. 17.
3. Reality Is: If Adrian Peterson had played, it wouldn’t have changed the game… but he should have still been active.
Sometimes, the decision that makes the most sense still isn’t the right one. And Jay Gruden’s decision to sit Adrian Peterson on Sunday was just one of those situations. I have no problem with Guice being given the start; he’s got way more upside than AP at this point in his career. But de-activating AP created an unnecessary and unhelpful distraction for a team that needed to be firing on all cylinders on Sunday. With Guice likely out for the next few weeks, the team will have a chance to see if AP still has enough in the tank to demand being activated even beyond Guice’s return.
4. Reality Is: Manusky should be on the hotseat, and the defensive players have something to prove.
All too often, the debate after a loss is about who to blame: players or coaches. I’m here to tell you… both.
There were both blatantly bad coaching blunders and terrible mistakes by the players on display as the Redskins gave up a 32-7 run to the Eagles on Sunday. On both of DeSean Jackson’s touchdowns, the players simply didn’t respect his speed enough. That’s on them. But there were no adjustments made when it was clear the front seven couldn’t get pressure on Wentz. There was a lack of creativity in play-calling, and there was a total lack of answers for the Eagles’ running out of three-wide personnel grouping.
Jonathan Allen‘s presence is a major factor, but with or without him, this unit needs to produce at a consistently high level to keep this team competitive this year. Stopping the run, creating turnovers, and getting off the field on third down must be hallmarks of this defense, and it’s going to take better coaching, better communication, and better individual efforts to accomplish that. The defensive players and coaches all have to take a long look in the mirror this week and decide if they’re going to do what it takes to live up to the potential they have, or if they’re going to be just one more in a string of mediocre, inconsistent Redskins defensive units.
Ok, and now, “WE WANT DALLAS!”
5. Reality Is: Dallas isn’t as good as New York made them look.
Living in the Dallas area, I have the opportunity to never miss a Cowboys game. I also have the opportunity to experience the insanity that is the overreactions locally and nationally about this team every week of every year. Win = Super Bowl. Loss = Somebody’s Head.
Here’s what’s true about Sunday’s game against New York: Dallas beat a terrible team coached by a terrible staff with a terrible owner and a worse GM. Saquon Barkley is special, and nobody else on that team is above replacement-level. The Cowboys are talented, but they are not invincible or elite. There’s a reason the sharp money bet the line for Cowboys/Redskins down from +7 to +4. The Cowboys should beat the Redskins… but the Redskins have a fighting chance.
6. Reality Is: The right side of the offensive line needs to show massive improvement this week.
Morgan Moses had three accepted penalties against Philly and two more that were declined. He also whiffed on several stunts in pass pro and struggled to block the back side on several run plays. Scherff was mostly a stud as usual, but still participated in several miscommunications on stunts with Moses, and got blown up a couple times by Fletcher Cox.
The Redskins need their right side to show out against Dallas to have any chance to move the ball consistently on Sunday. Another inconsistent day from their two best active offensive linemen will spell trouble for both the ground and air games.
7. Reality Is: Jordan Reed is the key to this game.
If Jordan Reed plays in this game, there’s a real chance the Redskins can win. His presence takes the strength of the Cowboys’ defense – the inside linebackers – and forces them to cover instead of being able to key the run. If Reed is cleared to play, expect a heavy dose of single TE sets with Trey Quinn cracking down on the front side of run plays and chipping on the front side of pass plays, while Richardson and McLaurin try to take the top off and Reed patrols the middle of the field.
Since Vernon Davis‘ skill set is more that of an outside receiver, he doesn’t allow the offense to be as variable, and the Redskins’ hope will rest on the effectiveness of AP and their ability to create turnovers on defense. If Reed is active, the playbook opens up and Dallas’ secondary likely gets exposed.
8. Reality Is: Making predictions after Week 1 of the NFL season is probably even sillier than making them before Week 1.
Overreactions are in the DNA of all football fans, and with a sample size of one week, the recency bias of a team’s Week 1 result combined with irrational fan emotion leads to wildly inaccurate predictions. And yet, part of what I do each week with the Reality Checks is give realistic predictions of what I expect to happen the following week. So, fully aware of the precarious nature of my situation, here are my predictions for Week 2 vs Dallas:
- AP accumulates 87 yards and 1 TD on 18 touches
- Case Keenum comes back to earth a bit with a 24/38, 247yd 2 TD, 1 INT day
- Reed functions primarily as a decoy, but ends up with 5 catches for 58 yards and a TD
- McLaurin records his second solid day with 4 catches for 68 yards and a TD
- Kerrigan and Payne shake off their poor opening games and each come up with a sack
- Ioannidis starts in place of Jon Allen and records a sack of his own
- Ryan Anderson out-snaps Montez Sweat and forces a Tony Pollard fumble
- Jimmy Moreland shakes off the rough start to his pro career and picks off Dak Prescott while largely locking down Randall Cobb
- Redskins start quickly again, end up losing their lead, but recover to kick a field goal to take the lead late in the 4th quarter, only to end up losing 26-24 on a late field goal set up by Amari Cooper torching soft press/bail coverage by Josh Norman
Sure hope I’m wrong with that last one, but that’s how I see it going down.
Welcome to the 2019 season, Redskins fans! Hit me up on twitter @TheRealityIs__. #HTTR…and say it with me, “We Want Dallas!”