The Redskins kick off their 2019 regular season slate on Sunday. Football is officially, officially back.
It’s been a long wait, and subsequently, the anticipation has steadily built on itself. Expectations are high. Offseasons of optimism have all progressed to this point. Now we’ll see, for the Washington Redskins, and for all other thirty-one teams: Are they who they say they are? Or will the record say something else?
For the Redskins, the purpose of 2019 is two-fold. The team has a young foundation, and developing that foundation is crucial. But for Jay Gruden’s sake, Washington aims to win now, and if they don’t, change could be on the horizon.
The circumstances are rarely as trepidatious as these. Thus, now feels like a very appropriate time to get bold. But we’re not just talking about the Eagles game. No, think bigger. Not the first seven weeks. Bigger. Ladies and gentlemen, turn the page, and take a look at five bold predictions for the Redskins entire 2019 season.
No. 5 – Redskins RB Derrius Guice rushes for 1,250 yards, makes Pro Bowl
It’s already been essentially confirmed by Jay Gruden that Derrius Guice will be the focal point of the Redskins offense. Much like the 2018 season, Washington plans on playing ball control offense, limiting mistakes, and using their second-round running back to establish the run, and therefore set up the pass.
Of course, there’s no statistical evidence that backs up the assertion that establishing the run is necessary, and an offense built around the running game is inherently inefficient. But that doesn’t mean a running back can’t succeed in spite of team stagnation. Saquon Barkley logged over 1,300 rushing yards and over 2,000 yards from scrimmage last year, in a season where the Giants went 5-11.
There isn’t always a correlation between individual running back success and team success. And that’s why Derrius Guice will be one of the bright spots in an overall disappointing season for Washington. He’ll remain healthy, and show why he was mentioned in the same breath as Barkley in draft season.
With his vision, explosiveness, and relentless drive through contact, Guice will make a habit of making the extraordinary play. He’ll be a much more efficient rusher than Adrian Peterson was last year, and while the Redskins won’t string together wins, Guice will achieve a personal victory; just one year after tearing his ACL, he’ll rush for over 1,250 yards, and his quick breakout will enthrall the nation, and earn him his first Pro Bowl bid. For a young Redskins team, it’ll be a sign of future promise.
No. 4 – Montae Nicholson leads the Redskins defense in interceptions
Less than a year ago, Montae Nicholson‘s future with the Redskins was in jeopardy. He’d been benched for Ha Ha Clinton-Dix earlier in the season, and in December, he was charged with misdemeanor assault after getting into a fight outside a bar. The Redskins placed Nicholson on the reserve list to close out the season, and entering the 2019 offseason, no one knew what would become of him.
As the offseason went on, however,r it became clear that Nicholson’s story was not one of tragedy, but instead one of redemption. The Redskins did not add a safety in free agency or in the NFL Draft, throwing in a vote of confidence for Nicholson, and Nicholson himself had the assault charges dropped just after the start of veteran minicamp.
Nicholson now has a new lease on life, and he looks better than ever. In a recent Richmond Times piece by Michael Phillips, Nicholson acknowledged the journey that’s brought him here. Among other things, he said he doesn’t go out anymore because of his two puppies, and he also brought up the impact that veteran Landon Collins has made in his short time in D.C., saying that “we’re on the same page, and when we get out to the field, it’s like we’re already in each other’s heads… It allows me to play faster and get the calls to the linebackers and cornerbacks faster.”
We saw glimpses of Nicholson’s chemistry with Collins, and how it allows him to react faster, when he snagged a deflected pass for a touchdown in Washington’s second preseason contest versus the Bengals. And now, as the regular season kicks off, we should see plenty more of that.
Nicholson is the unquestioned starter, with a newfound focus and drive for his role. He’s always been an elite athlete; 6-foot-2, 212-pound defensive backs aren’t supposed to have 4.4 speed and a 35-inch vertical. But Nicholson has both of those qualities, and now, he has his perfect compliment in Collins, a devastating box safety with adept mental processing.
As Collins’ rangy partner on the back end, Nicholson will feast on the pressure put on the offense by Collins and the rest of the front four. He’ll lead the team in the interception category, finally delivering on years of promise.
No. 3 – Daron Payne leads the team in sacks
Edge rushers aren’t a dying breed. But in recent years, the interior lineman has made a name for himself as an equal sack-getter. Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald led the league in sacks last year, and other interior standouts such as Fletcher Cox, Jarran Reed, DeForest Buckner, Chris Jones, and Geno Atkins all reached double-digits as well.
Interior pressure is the quickest way to reach the quarterback. It’s a straight-line shot, once you beat your man. And as this becomes more and more apparent, teams are trending away from the flat-footed space eaters, and toward the athletic, multi-faceted interior defensive linemen who can stand tall in run defense, and wreak havoc as pass rushers.
Redskins defensive lineman Daron Payne fits that profile to perfection.
Entering just his second season, Payne could be on the verge of a breakout. He arguably looked like the Redskins best player in preseason, and in his recent defensive lineman tiers, trench expert Brandon Thorn ranked Payne as the best defensive lineman in Washington. He put Payne in Tier 2, just one tier shy of Aaron Donald and Fletcher Cox, among all of the other names listed above.
Payne is one of the few linemen in that tier to lack a ten-sack season, and in 2019, he earns his stripes. Payne will ascend to the top of the ranks, and become one of the unequivocal best interior linemen in the NFL. He’ll lead the Redskins in sacks, surpassing Ryan Kerrigan’s sturdy total of 10.0 or 11.0.
No. 2 – Dwayne Haskins takes starting job after Patriots game
Jay Gruden said in a press conference, after Case Keenum was named the Redskins starting quarterback, that as long as Keenum produced, he’d be fine.
The statement was rather vague, and it begged the question: What is adequate production, in this context? We can reasonably assume that, with Jay Gruden coaching for his job, if the Redskins fall behind in the standings early, then Keenum won’t have produced enough.
In an offense with plenty of proven talent and no leaks, Keenum can produce just fine. That’s the situation he found himself in during the 2017 season, when the Vikings went 13-3 with a stifling defense and an efficient offense.
But Keenum isn’t with the 2017 Vikings anymore. He wasn’t with them last year, when he provided pedestrian quarterback play for the Broncos and limped to a 6-10 record. And he’s not with them now. The 2019 Redskins have an unproven receiving core, an unbalanced offensive line, and a coaching staff set on playing a losing strategy.
If the defense were to peak early, and if the inside linebackers were to compete the puzzle, bringing the defense up from top fifteen to top ten, perhaps Keenum would have a chance to stick around as the starter. But in their first five games, the Redskins play the Eagles, Cowboys, Bears, Giants, and Patriots. It’s hard to see Keenum bringing them out of that stretch any better than 1-4. And if this probability comes to pass, then Keenum’s production won’t be good enough.
Dwayne Haskins will mount his NFL debut against the talent-deficient Miami Dolphins. With five weeks of watching from the side lines and mentorship from Alex Smith under his belt, he’ll be able to set out on the right foot, and he’ll use the rest of the season as a learning experience, using live reps to catalyze his own growth, and using occasional flashes to incite hope into a disillusioned fan base.
No. 1 – Jay Gruden is fired midseason, Kevin O’Connell proceeds as head coach
Jay Gruden enters this season as a guy who, basically, can’t win. He’s on terribly thin ice, with two straight 7-9 seasons in the rear view mirror. The pressure is on Gruden to win now. And the odds are not in his favor.
Gruden picked Case Keenum to be the starter because he felt that the veteran gave the team the best chance to win. But Keenum can’t win without a lot of help around him, and Gruden can’t help if he refuses to be adaptable and adjustable. Over the years, we’ve seen Gruden’s lack of flexibility hurt the team, and it’s that same lack of flexibility that will lead to his downfall.
Whether the firing of Gruden happens in correlation with Keenum’s benching, or whether it happens later, is not yet distinguishable. The team could bench Keenum and see how Haskins does under Gruden’s leadership. But the only way Gruden sticks around is if he proves himself to be vital to Haskins’ development. And with Kevin O’Connell now entrenched as the team’s offensive coordinator, the front office could have flashbacks of Sean McVay, and give their charismatic young coaching candidate the reins.
Whether O’Connell will succeed, or even amount to the promise that has begun to build, remains to be seen. But starting a new era requires that a team goes all-in on change, and pulls the trigger at the right time. Perhaps, pulling the trigger on a coaching change in 2019 will have been late. But for the Redskins, it’s better late, than too late.