There’s a saying in analytics. That running backs don’t matter.
The statement does not work as a universal truth. There are times when teams win because of their running back. Adrian Peterson is a big reason the Washington Redskins even sniffed .500 last season.
But the statement isn’t completely literal. It’s a quaint paraphrase job of the data-backed revelation that teams who build their offenses around the run game are inherently less efficient than teams who build their offenses around the passing game. The versatility of the passing game, especially with play action, is the way of the future, and some teams haven’t caught on yet. The Redskins, at the very least, postponed their renaissance in 2018.
This year, however, there’s a chance that the Redskins cater more to the modern analytical standards. They have a new quarterback in Dwayne Haskins who should be able to, in the long run, glean more from the offense with his talent and smarts. They have Kevin O’Connell, a young offensive mind who has, in limited press conferences, said promising things concerning his offensive philosophy.
If the Redskins are truly moving forward on this developmental curve, then the statement “Running backs don’t matter” will ring louder in Ashburn. But while running backs are more replaceable and not as important in the modern offense, the right running back can be a versatile weapon out of the backfield. Derrius Guice had the potential to be that weapon for Washington last year, and this year, he’s fighting to get back.
Running backs are weapons, all the same. Here’s the training camp profile for the Redskins’ most explosive running back, and one of their most explosive weapons.
Guice’s 2018 season with the Redskins
Derrius Guice’s 2018 season with the Redskins was one to forget, not because he played poorly, but because he didn’t play at all. Guice suffered an ACL tear in August of 2018. First believed to be a sprain, his ACL injury sidelined him for the entire 2018 season, and since that preseason game, he’s been rehabbing the injured knee.
Guice was, at the very least, nearing one-hundred percent earlier in the offseason, but recently, he suffered another setback, this time with his hamstring. Now, the timeline for Guice’s return is further muddied, and there’s a chance he could start the season on the PUP list.
If Guice does get to suit up during training camp and preseason, however, then we’ll get to see the same energy, physicality, and explosiveness he boasted in his final two football seasons: 2016 and 2017, with the LSU Tigers. In 2016, Guice roared for 1,387 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns on 183 carries, and in 2017, his workload increased, seeing him amass 1,251 yards and 11 touchdowns on 237 carries.
In this time, Guice showed off incredible contact balance, excellent athleticism for a running back, and a hunger for contact that could not be quenched. He also displayed his ability to be a receiver out of the backfield, although LSU failed to use that trait to its full potential as a run-heavy offense. Guice’s exploits in college made him easily a better pro prospect that his predecessor, Leonard Fournette, but in a strong draft class headlined by Saquon Barkley, Guice fell, with some help from unsatisfactory rumors about his character.
It’s been a long road for Guice, and it seems as though there’s still a long way to go before he hits the field and stays there. But if Guice keeps his explosion and attitude, then it will be well worth the wait.
What Guice needs to show at Redskins training camp
First and foremost, Guice needs to get healthy. That’s a prerequisite that Guice needs to complete before he can combat all the noise. Get the ACL one-hundred percent, get the hamstring one-hundred percent, and then worry about claiming the starting job from Adrian Peterson.
Per Craig Hoffman, and relayed by our own Jacob Camenker, the hamstring injury only makes Guice questionable for training camp, and it might not change much, as the Redskins were already planning to play it safe with the second-year ball carrier. But if Guice still had some ground to make up in his ACL recovery timeline, then this hamstring injury could set him back a bit, and slow the whole process. A pushback to the regular season to negate further injury concerns isn’t out of the question, especially if the team views Peterson as a suitable safety blanket.
For now, Guice’s health is a mystery. But let’s say he somehow does get healthy before or during training camp. In that case, he needs to show what he showed on tape in the lead-up to the 2018 NFL Draft. His balance and his aggression were his best traits, but he also boasted speed, burst, underrated receiving ability, and very good vision. One could make an argument for him as RB1, and in a draft with Saquon Barkley, that’s no small feat.
In training camp, if able, Guice needs to tap into that talent again, and show why he deserves to be set apart from the rest of the pack at running back. Keeping his positive attitude would help with matters; the young player has quickly become an emotional leader for Washington, and if his contagious mindset can permeate through the rest of the team, that will only make his impact more profound. And if he’s still injured, it’s all he can do.
Guice’s main competition at Redskins training camp
There are a lot of names in the Redskins cluttered running back room. Elijah Wellman’s back again like he never left. Craig Reynolds is an undrafted free agent rookie with some versatile upside. Byron Marshall is still one of Jay Gruden’s favorite projects, and Samaje Perine has been receiving some lip service from Gruden this offseason as well.
Bryce Love is still recuperating from his own ACL tear, so chances are he won’t be added into the mix until sometime later, but nonetheless, Guice isn’t concerning himself with the battle for the reserve spots. He’s here to be the starter, and thus, he’ll be battling Adrian Peterson, the incumbent starter, and Chris Thompson, the team’s starting receiving back, for snaps.
Peterson earned back his MVP respect in 2018, putting up 1,042 yards and seven touchdowns on 241 carries. At 33 years old, he played in all sixteen games, and while he’d clearly lost a step athletically, his vision, energetic running style, and sturdy build helped him stay on his feet. Now, he’s 34 years old, and it’s hard to expect him to replicate his success from last year. Thompson, meanwhile, battled injuries the entire season, but the hope is that he can get back to full health in 2018, and contribute as he did in 2017. It’s something that’s been hoped before.
This season, Guice has by far the most upside of the running back group, but he’s still recovering from injury. His timeline could give Peterson the opportunity to further establish himself as the team’s bell-cow back, and when Guice does come back to full health, it could take some time for the Redskins to ease him back in, if they feel that Peterson is performing up to par.
Guice’s outlook for the 2019 season
2019 was advertised as Guice’s redemption tour the moment it was revealed that he’d torn his ACL. But now, his recent hamstring injury complicates matters, and even then, it wasn’t known whether his ACL was one-hundred percent yet.
As long as the injuries are clouding the lens, the outlook on Guice’s 2019 season is still very much up in the air. He could get back to full health earlier than expected, take hold of the starting job, and fill a role as the Redskins versatile running back, helping Haskins along with his development. He could also sit for much of the early season, and his 2019 season could itself be a recalibrating year, rather than a year to reclaim honor.
Guice has the best physical traits in the Redskins running back group, and when he eventually hits the field, he should stand out for that. But when he’ll truly be able to remains a mystery. It’s the moment we’re all waiting for. And the wait might drone on longer than anyone wants.