This is always how it goes.
The Washington Redskins put together a solid draft. Their picks help put together some hype-inducing practice clips. And all of a sudden, every other person is calling them a playoff sleeper.
The record predictions come next, and those taken by the wave of excitement proudly display their case for 12-4. Others, forever taken aback by the Redskins front office dysfunction and the endless losing cycle, retreat to the opposite pole as a reactionary move. Consequently, we have clashing predictions. 12-4, versus 4-12.
I’m here to tell you, it’s not that simple.
Record predictions are an unavoidable byproduct of the NFL offseason. But there’s a right way to do it: To acknowledge the subjectivity and potential ingrained bias of every prediction, and to acknowledge the vast range of possibilities from which every prediction should be derived.
We’re not making record predictions today. Not yet. Instead, we’re laying a stable foundation for record predictions later on. How good can this Redskins team be? How bad can this Redskins team be? You may feel inclined to entrench yourself in the 4-12 corner, or stand proudly on that 12-4 hill, as if you didn’t last year. But in truth, there is no right answer yet.
All we can do is narrow down the options.
How bad can the 2019 Redskins be?
It feels natural to start with the schedule, which won’t do the Redskins any favors. I know the Redskins have the “easiest schedule”, if you go by winning percentages in 2018, but winning percentages in 2018 have just about no bearing on winning percentages in 2019.
Look at the opponents who weigh that figure down. The 49ers got better, and they were missing their starting quarterback in 2018. The Bills already had a borderline elite defense, and now they’ve given Josh Allen a semblance of a supporting cast. The Jets have a blossoming franchise passer in Sam Darnold and went all-in in free agency. Sure, it might not work out for these guys. But the Redskins won’t be handed games. So if they can’t actively take them, that might be a problem.
So now to the team. I think the defense buoys the Redskins. If they so please, they’re set up to win ugly again in 2019, with a very good defense and an offense that gets back two starting offensive linemen and second-round running back Derrius Guice. They got six wins in nine games with this formula in 2018, and with a rookie quarterback who could have an Alex Smith-like impact early, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Jay Gruden cater to that offensive philosophy.
As fun as it is to unveil the mottos that come with “winning ugly” and playing “old school football”, it’s called old school for a reason. It’s outdated. If you’re good at winning ugly, then you have a chance to beat the teams that are bad at winning clean. But old school offense has inherently less potential than the modern concepts that have bloomed in recent years. Against teams that cherish offensive potential, the Redskins might not be able to keep up.
I have serious reservations about Jay Gruden’s ability to put together a consistent, effective game script on offense. Play tempo and play frequency are areas he’s never been great with, and as good a play designer as Gruden is, defenses will exploit fundamental weaknesses in an offense. And while the defense can be very good, can it be good enough to offset another season of offensive inconsistency? Dwayne Haskins could help in time, but does he have the traits to elevate the team in his rookie season? When all the pieces are still meshing? There could be a learning curve for this new, re-tooled offense. And it might not always be pretty.
Looking at the Redskins schedule, there are no games you can confidently say they’ll win without a doubt, aside from maybe the Dolphins (But even then, the Dolphins are a scary trap game with Josh Rosen). You might prefer the Redskins in a number of matchups, but they’re not good enough yet to command that undying confidence, and we can never count on them to stay healthy through sixteen games. That puts a spotlight on the volatility of 2019’s outcome.
So how bad can the Redskins be? If you’re really pessimistic, you can go lower. I say 5-11 is their floor. The defense is too good to hang them out to dry completely, although Greg Manusky’s personnel usage and play calling might limit them, as it did last year. Jay Gruden’s very good at hovering around the midpoint, but the offense is still a mystery, no matter how good the best-case scenario might look.
How good can the 2019 Redskins be?
Let’s talk about best-case scenarios for a second. There are always two sides to the “if” coin, and fixating on one side can be dangerous. Fixating on the best-case scenario is a common pitfall every offseason, but that’s the point of this slide, so let’s go crazy.
Let’s look at the defense. As it stands right now, this is a top twelve unit with top five potential. A front five of Ryan Kerrigan, Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne, Matt Ioannidis, and Montez Sweat is fearsome, with a tantalizing blend of athletic potential and brute strength. All five players are fairly versatile, aside from Ioannidis, who counters by being the team’s best interior pass rusher, and four of those five players are 25 or younger, and thus trending up. The fifth is Kerrigan, who’s been a double-digit sack artist for two years on end.
Behind that front, the Redskins have a potential high-impact starter in Reuben Foster, and a young player who could compliment him very well in Shaun Dion Hamilton. Hamilton’s been slept on, but he has the combination of burst and football I.Q. to start and thrive at inside linebacker, and mitigate some of the coverage concerns propagated by Mason Foster and Zach Brown in 2018.
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In the secondary, the Redskins have Josh Norman, Quinton Dunbar, and Fabian Moreau starting again at cornerback. Norman still offers some disruption, even if he’s getting older. Moreau is trending up as a physical slot presence. Getting Dunbar back is the biggest thing here. Dunbar has the size-speed combination, along with his attention to detail, to be a very, very good starter, as long as he can get back to full strength. Last season, he was on pace for four interceptions and 18 pass deflections before injuries shortened his 2018 campaign. Still just 26 years old, Dunbar has yet to truly break out. And that’s exciting.
All this, and we haven’t even talked about the team’s shining free agent acquisition: Landon Collins. The former Giants standout is a force to be reckoned with in the box, and he can cover adequately as well. He might not be the surefire blue-chip player he was in 2016, but he’s close, and he’s still young. Behind this front seven, he should be able to produce. Who starts next to Collins is yet to be determined, but there’s potential there as well. Montae Nicholson, in particular, has the athletic upside as the free safety, and he’s shown flashes there. He has the traits to be a very good compliment to Collins, if he’s afforded a second chance.
Overall, the Redskins defense has top five potential, and while Greg Manusky has a lot to prove in his role, talent-wise, the Redskins are near the top. If the offense can be more than what it was last year, then the Redskins could win more games than expected. That’s certainly possible too; Dwayne Haskins is smart enough to be the team’s pseudo-Alex Smith from Week 1, and Derrius Guice should provide more versatility as a go-to weapon. Part of it depends on Kevin O’Connell. If he’s calling the plays, there’s more cause for optimism, as his background is promising, and Gruden might be better served focusing on other things.
If O’Connell calls the plays, then there’s at least hope that the Redskins offense can take on some of the modern concepts that have allowed other teams to flourish. There’s hope that they can use their intriguing weapons, such as Josh Doctson, Jordan Reed, Terry McLaurin, Kelvin Harmon, and Trey Quinn, with more creativity and flexibility, and there’s hope that they can glean the most out of an uncertain offensive unit. If they can do that, and compliment a stellar defensive output, then winning double-digit games is a possibility.
If literally everything goes right, the Redskins can hit 11-5. Keep in mind, however, that the number of times everything has gone right, for any NFL team in history, can be counted with one hand, shaped like a zero. 10-6 is a more realistic peak, but if the defense reaches its full potential, and if Haskins acclimates himself with an increasingly versatile offense quicker than expected, then it’s at least safe to think that better days might be on the horizon.
Implications of the Redskins 2019 season
I’ll leave you with this.
The implications of the Redskins 2019 season are great in magnitude. Even if the team goes 8-8, or 7-9, they could show progress with a rookie quarterback, and hint at future growth. But a consequence of that scenario? Jay Gruden’s job could be in jeopardy, and no matter what you think of Gruden, it’s never a certainty for a rookie quarterback to switch coaches after a year. Yes, Jared Goff went from Jeff Fisher to Sean McVay, and it’s been postulated that the Redskins could try to do the same thing with Kevin O’Connell. But to expect the same results is dangerous.
The Redskins are a team with multiple underlying directions. With a rookie quarterback to develop over time, they’ve given themselves a chance to work their way back into the playoff mix after losing Alex Smith. But Jay Gruden might not have the luxury of time that Haskins has. Whatever happens, the differing paths will meet. They will clash. And either they will coalesce, or one will destroy the other.
Clarity will be found, even if it seems unattainable at this point in time. But for now, trying to find clarity is a futile directive. The range of possibilities for the Redskins encompasses a vast landscape, and it’s a spectacle that serves as a subtle, yet poignant reminder: No matter what we say, we’re all wrong.