Redskins: What is the realistic range of this team in 2019?

How bad can the 2019 Redskins be?

It feels natural to start with the schedule, which won’t do the Redskins any favors. I know the Redskins have the “easiest schedule”, if you go by winning percentages in 2018, but winning percentages in 2018 have just about no bearing on winning percentages in 2019.

Look at the opponents who weigh that figure down. The 49ers got better, and they were missing their starting quarterback in 2018. The Bills already had a borderline elite defense, and now they’ve given Josh Allen a semblance of a supporting cast. The Jets have a blossoming franchise passer in Sam Darnold and went all-in in free agency. Sure, it might not work out for these guys. But the Redskins won’t be handed games. So if they can’t actively take them, that might be a problem.

So now to the team. I think the defense buoys the Redskins. If they so please, they’re set up to win ugly again in 2019, with a very good defense and an offense that gets back two starting offensive linemen and second-round running back Derrius Guice. They got six wins in nine games with this formula in 2018, and with a rookie quarterback who could have an Alex Smith-like impact early, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Jay Gruden cater to that offensive philosophy.

As fun as it is to unveil the mottos that come with “winning ugly” and playing “old school football”, it’s called old school for a reason. It’s outdated. If you’re good at winning ugly, then you have a chance to beat the teams that are bad at winning clean. But old school offense has inherently less potential than the modern concepts that have bloomed in recent years. Against teams that cherish offensive potential, the Redskins might not be able to keep up.

I have serious reservations about Jay Gruden’s ability to put together a consistent, effective game script on offense. Play tempo and play frequency are areas he’s never been great with, and as good a play designer as Gruden is, defenses will exploit fundamental weaknesses in an offense. And while the defense can be very good, can it be good enough to offset another season of offensive inconsistency? Dwayne Haskins could help in time, but does he have the traits to elevate the team in his rookie season? When all the pieces are still meshing? There could be a learning curve for this new, re-tooled offense. And it might not always be pretty.

Looking at the Redskins schedule, there are no games you can confidently say they’ll win without a doubt, aside from maybe the Dolphins (But even then, the Dolphins are a scary trap game with Josh Rosen). You might prefer the Redskins in a number of matchups, but they’re not good enough yet to command that undying confidence, and we can never count on them to stay healthy through sixteen games. That puts a spotlight on the volatility of 2019’s outcome.

So how bad can the Redskins be? If you’re really pessimistic, you can go lower. I say 5-11 is their floor. The defense is too good to hang them out to dry completely, although Greg Manusky’s personnel usage and play calling might limit them, as it did last year. Jay Gruden’s very good at hovering around the midpoint, but the offense is still a mystery, no matter how good the best-case scenario might look.