The Redskins are stuck at a terrifying precipice.
Nearing the 2019 NFL Draft, the Washington Redskins need a quarterback to maximize their roster. The stakes are high. For their own sakes, Jay Gruden needs to win. Bruce Allen needs to win. Dan Snyder needs to win.
But winning requires a process. Winning requires time, and patience, and direction. The Redskins have none of those things. Jay Gruden seems to be falling out of favor in D.C., and Bruce Allen and Dan Snyder have an eroding fan base to appease. The team, in a distorted kind of way, needs to win now. But can they?
The ingredient for immediate success, for the Redskins, is a rare one. With Alex Smith lost to injury, the Redskins need a quarterback, but Jay Gruden might not have the time to develop a rookie. The team has holes, but enough pieces to mount the fringe of contention. The right quarterback, however, could save jobs in Ashburn. The right quarterback could defuse such a volatile situation.
With that said, and with the whispers of a trade in the Arizona desert brewing, amidst a dusty wind, there is one question to ask: Is Josh Rosen the right quarterback?
Scouting Josh Rosen’s college tape
Last year, I had Josh Rosen as my top-rated quarterback prospect in the 2019 NFL Draft. Of course, processes change over time. Last year, I didn’t have as much time to watch tape, and while I did watch some, evaluation skills can always be improved.
This offseason, I’m still learning. But nonetheless, I decided to dive back into Rosen’s college tape, to see if he was as impressive as I remembered him to be. The conclusion of this study might underwhelm you: He was.
Rosen is the ideal prototypical pocket passer. His mechanics are very solid and fluid, and he has good poise in the pocket. He’s not fazed in the slightest by a closing pocket, and he has impressive balance when the rush grazes him. He can stay on his feet and extend plays. He generally has a good feel for pressure, but can get caught up in his progressions at times.
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Rosen actively seeks to step into his throws, so that he can drive the ball downfield with the utmost velocity. Order of operations with footwork is very important for quarterbacks, and Rosen understands that. His tennis background likely plays a role.
Rosen’s footwork allows him to manipulate pocket lanes with good feel and excellent situational awareness. A pocket passer should work to keep the pocket viable as long as possible, and Rosen does that. He keeps his eyes downfield under pressure, always trying to get something out of any given play. He has an underrated ability to throw on the run, and he keeps his eyes upfield when going off-script, using pump fakes to confuse defenders. He’s able to execute rollouts, throwing on the run with accuracy. Rosen’s propensity to keep plays alive can lead to opportunities for defenses, but ultimately, his aggressive mindset maximizes his potential as a pocket passer.
In the pocket, Rosen is a fast processor. He doesn’t panic, and his eyes travel across the field quickly as he goes through his progressions with ease. He sells the play action well with diligent fakes, and knows how to manipulate the defense with his eyes, though he can occasionally stare down quick routes, selling out his intended destination (Many young quarterbacks have this issue). His control wanes when he takes inevitable risks. When forcing passes, he can disregard certain defenders, leading to turnover opportunities. He does throw the ball away, but he can be more consistent, in terms of knowing when there’s nothing there.
Still, if there’s any quarterback who’s allowed to take risks, it’s Josh Rosen. Every throw is calculated, with a method behind it, and a talented arm as its source. Rosen has the arm talent to combine velocity with precision, and his overall precision to all three levels of the field is impressive. His arm is fairly elastic, and he has the ability to cultivate velocity and tight spin with ease. His precise ball placement allows for run-after-catch opportunities in open field, and in contested situations, and he can fit the ball into very tight windows, throwing with anticipation and manipulating leverage to throw his receivers open. Even on deep passes, he can fit the ball into a bread basket.
That said, there are times when Rosen’s accuracy wanes slightly, or his aggressive mindset can get him into trouble. He’s generally aware of his check downs, but he often tries to glean as much value as he can from a play. His ball placement is generally accurate, but can be inconsistent when pressured, and some of his forced throws will go high. Rosen will also occasionally grow too confident in his arm, and force the ball into congested situations. While this can lead to spectacular throws, it can also lead to drive-killing interceptions.
Rosen will also occasionally overthrow dump-offs with his live arm, and conversely, he has a tendency to throw low to curl and comeback routes. While this can help mitigate a defensive back’s impact on the ball, it also makes for a harder catch by the receiver. He can also throw a bit behind receivers crossing left to right, and miscommunication with receivers was a problem at times in college (Though his receivers dropped a lot of passes, so it’s hard to tell whose fault it was).
Rosen’s aggressive mindset as a passer is polarizing. He occasionally makes very bad decisions trying to maximize broken plays, but he clearly displays the situational awareness one desires from an aggressive pocket passer. He recognizes blitzes and gets the ball out quick. He puts enough pace on short passes to allow receivers run-after-catch opportunities. He faked a spike against Texas A&M, using his situational awareness to deceive the defense (He also brought back UCLA from a 34-point deficit in that game). He can run the read option in the red zone, and he gives his receivers good cushion on fade throws.
Yes, Rosen is aggressive. But it’s easier to refine and build off of an aggressive mentality in the NFL, than mold a conservative passer into a gunslinger. While Rosen takes risks with his arm, he has the arm talent to maximize those risks, and every action has an underlying reason behind it. Whereas some young quarterbacks can simply throw the ball up, Rosen has a plan on every down, and when the plan breaks, he has the ability to succeed outside of structure with arm talent, flexibility, and laser focus.
If I had to compare Rosen to a pocket passer in the 2019 class, Dwayne Haskins comes to mind. Both are, by definition, pocket passers. Both are smart. But while Haskins is generally conservative, minimizing opportunities downfield and taking what’s given, Rosen is aggressive, and sees the whole field much better, thus boosting his upside. Haskins’ mechanics can be inconsistent. Rosen’s mechanics are very polished. Haskins and Rosen both leave something to be desired as athletes, but Rosen gets the edge there, and has a better skill set, in terms of succeeding outside of structure. Rosen’s arm is stronger and more elastic, and while Haskins is very accurate on short passes, Rosen has much more consistent accuracy in the intermediate and deep ranges, and the velocity to drive the ball into tighter windows. Haskins can be a starter in the right situation, but when compared to Rosen, it’s not really a competition.
As a prospect, based on his college film, Josh Rosen is an adequately mobile pocket passer who has the desired gunslinger mentality that teams seek from pocket passers. He simply doesn’t miss open receivers, and his precision to all three levels of the field, afforded to him by fluid mechanics and a versatile arm, is very impressive. Rosen’s short and intermediate throws are crisp, and his deep passes are relatively consistent, with an impressive blend of pace and touch. Just one year removed from college, Rosen’s tape as a prospect still matters. And his tape as a prospect was very, very good.
Tape Watched
Josh Rosen vs. Colorado (2017)
Josh Rosen vs. Arizona State (2017)
Josh Rosen vs. Texas A&M (2017)
Josh Rosen vs. Washington (2017)
Analyzing Josh Rosen’s rookie season
It’s worth noting right now that Josh Rosen’s rookie season wasn’t perfect. Some of his flaws were magnified at the next level, and some areas in which he had room for growth were spotlighted against greater competition.
But Rosen’s situation was about as bad as a rookie quarterback could have. His offensive staff was legitimately awful (Mike McCoy was his offensive coordinator for half the season), and Steve Wilks showed he wasn’t prepared for a head coaching role from the start of the 2018 campaign. Rosen’s offensive line went through immense turnover, and as a result, he dealt with pressure far more often than a rookie quarterback should.
Rosen’s supporting cast also left something to be desired in Arizona, though that is more the fault of the offensive staff failing to use players like David Johnson correctly. Rosen was in a detrimental situation in 2018, and yet, he still showed flashes of the brilliance hinted at in college. He gave Chad Williams a beautiful high-point pass early on against the Seahawks, and there were other instances where his precision was put on display. He also led a comeback victory against the 49ers; not quite of the same magnitude of his Texas A&M comeback, but representative of his ability to rise to the occasion in clutch moments.
Rosen wasn’t perfect in 2018, and there were times where the adverse circumstances in Arizona visibly hurt his performance. More skittish in the pocket with constant pressure (He faced pressure on a whopping 40.4 percent of drop backs, per Doug Farrar of USA Today), his mechanics weren’t as consistent, and his aggressive style didn’t always translate well. But the traits are still there, and the mental quickness is still there for the Redskins to benefit from, if they’re willing. You never give up on a quarterback after one year, especially if they showed promise with little help around them. Even the best quarterbacks need to be put in a position to succeed, to do so. Rosen was not put in a position to succeed in Arizona. He deserves to be given the opportunity to have some cohesion with his supporting cast and his coaching staff, before he’s written off.
For full disclosure, it’s important to note that there’s limited NFL tape publicly available to view for Rosen. But even in highlights, it’s important to recognize the kinds of throws Rosen can make, especially when many gravitate toward the negative aspects of his rookie season. Rosen’s fast release and his precision are matched only by Kyler Murray in the 2019 class. His unique talents make him a quarterback worth giving time, and in his youth, his book is far from closed.
Tape Watched
Josh Rosen vs. Seattle Seahawks (Home)
Josh Rosen highlights vs. San Francisco 49ers (Home)
Dispelling Josh Rosen’s character concerns
Somewhere along the line in the 2018 draft process, personality comparisons between Aaron Rodgers and Josh Rosen morphed into phantom character concerns for the latter. Just as some had viewed Rodgers as the prickly compliment to Alex Smith in 2005, Rosen was rumored to be hard to work with, among other things.
That’s not to say that Rosen was always a perfectly agreeable character. He did do things that would rub some the wrong way. He wore a suggestive hat on a golf course to make a political statement, and he put a hot tub in his dorm room when he was a freshman in college. These are the kinds of things that can fuel the human habit of ‘thin slicing’, or taking one segment of experience of someone’s personality, and using it to determine their entire character mold.
Still, the rumors surrounding Rosen didn’t push him far down the draft board. He was selected with the No. 10 overall pick by the Arizona Cardinals, who traded a third and fifth-round pick to get him. He then added more kindling to the fire burning his reputation, saying that he’d prove there were nine mistakes picked before him.
The comment, without context, raises red flags. But Rosen has never apologized for his confidence, and he’s never put himself in a position where that confidence isn’t warranted. The chip on the shoulder isn’t just a saying for Rosen; it’s a part of his uniform. He wears that chip all the time. It comes from being second place to so many others, only to prove he belongs in the conversation for the top spot time and time again. Rosen knows what he’s capable of, and he doesn’t apologize for that.
But what does Rosen apologize for? The mistakes he made in his youth; mistakes of the same nature of every other college student (Trust me, I’ve learned from recent experience). The hot tub incident. And the hat. Rosen, in an interview with Rich Eisen, was candid about his growth over his time at UCLA, and he shed some light on his thought process, both on and off the field. The video is below, from about a year ago. It’s a watch that’s worth your time, particularly the first eight or nine minutes.
Josh Rosen is a human being, of the same depth and uniqueness of all others. Some may foster disagreements with his occasional political statements, or make assumptions based on brash, youthful decisions. Such samples of Rosen dissuade many from digging deeper, to judge the merit of those samples, when basing evaluations of his character on them.
When one digs deeper, the aforementioned samples of Rosen’s character prove invalid. Rosen has grown since his early days at UCLA, just as every young college student grows over the course of their career. And there’s much more to the man than what meets the eye. While some rumors pegged Rosen as a head case, his very team mates, both at the college level and the professional level, struck down those sentiments. Here’s what former Cardinals kicker Phil Dawson said about Rosen, after Rosen consoled him following a missed game-winning field goal against Seattle, per Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.
"He had some very encouraging words. That’s pretty significant. But especially when you consider that it’s a rookie quarterback making his first start with obviously a lot of issues on his plate, and for him to take time while processing his first game and a tough loss and all that kind of stuff, to go out of his way to encourage a teammate, especially one in my shoes, I think that speaks a lot for his leadership and just the character of the guy."
Other Cardinals team mates who raved about Rosen’s character in the linked article include Larry Fitzgerald, Justin Pugh, Christian Kirk, Chad Williams, and Jermaine Gresham. The article also mentioned a weekly film study that Josh Rosen led as a rookie, among other NFL players, once he was awarded the starting job.
Scott Quessenberry, Rosen’s college team mate at UCLA, was a bit more annoyed with the constant concerns surrounding Rosen’s character. In an NFL.com article by Nick Shook, written in March of last year, Quessenberry shared his thoughts on why the perception of Rosen was wrong.
"I don’t know where it comes from. It drives me insane. I have a really good relationship with Josh and he’ll tell you the same thing about me. We talk. For him to get the rap that he gets, I think it’s BS because of the type of guy he is and the type of stand-up human being that he is. The type of pro that he’s going to be. I don’t think he’s hard to get along with. I don’t know where that came from, I don’t know why that started. Is he opinionated? Yeah. Everyone’s got their own opinions. Does he believe in his opinions and will he waver on his opinions? No, but I don’t know when that’s ever been a bad thing. Everyone gets along with him, he gets along with everybody. No one in the world is going to see eye to eye on everything, so I don’t understand where that comes from. It drives me crazy. I can only imagine what it’s like for him."
No one can ever come across the full picture, when it comes to Rosen’s personality. But which medium of information carries more merit? Mere rumors, cooked up in the heat of draft season? Or words from his team mates, the very players who spent hours upon hours every day with Rosen?
What could it be like, for a person to be judged by so many who hardly know him? In time, Josh Rosen will get the opportunity to show more of who he is. And he’ll show so many why they were wrong.
How Josh Rosen fits the Redskins
The Redskins might need a rebuild, but they aren’t going to get it. Dan Snyder and Bruce Allen are in win-now mode every year, and Jay Gruden isn’t coaching with long-term goals in mind, either. He needs to win to keep his job, and he’s reportedly entered the offseason with that kind of fire.
Of course, to win now, the Redskins need a quarterback, and a quarterback that they won’t have to groom. The ideal fit is an albeit young quarterback who’s cheap, has some experience, and has upside. In that case, Josh Rosen fits the Redskins needs, both objective and ulterior, perfectly.
Josh Rosen is a quarterback who can run Washington’s west coast system effectively. Gruden’s route concepts mesh well with Rosen’s strengths, and Rosen has the sneaky mobility to run other staples of Gruden’s scheme well, like play action rollouts and read-pass options. Rosen, in a sense, is the quarterback Gruden has wanted Kirk Cousins and Alex Smith to be. He can execute the offense efficiently, but Gruden won’t have to beg Rosen to take deep shots; Rosen’s aggressive mindset takes care of that.
The biggest question surrounding Rosen’s fit pertains to the personnel. It’s hard not to be an upgrade from the cast that Arizona trotted out with a limp last year, but the Redskins do have some work to do to give Rosen the best tools. The offensive line, while good on paper, has a hole at left guard, and multiple starters are coming back from injury-riddled campaigns. The receiving core, meanwhile, leaves something to be desired, and at tight end, the duo of Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis is one that lacks reliability.
As a player, Rosen would fit well with the Redskins, and he’d likely mask various deficiencies of his supporting cast, like he did at UCLA, and in flashes with the Cardinals. He’s what Jay Gruden wants and needs at quarterback. The only question is, can they make his transition as painless and seamless as possible, for the right price?
What might Josh Rosen cost?
It’s hard to say.
There was a time when it was believed that Rosen’s value was that of a third-round pick. Now, recently, there were rumors that one team had offered the Cardinals a second-round pick for Rosen. At the same time, it was reported that the Cardinals were seeking a first.
It is dangerous to assume that the current value is anything more than that, and just that. Rosen’s value will fluctuate, and more than likely grow as the 2019 NFL Draft nears, if he is truly available. For a quarterback with his polish and upside, teams won’t get hung up on his rookie season. He’s a young quarterback with franchise potential, and he’d arguably be the best prospect in the 2019 class. If he can be had for even a first-round pick, it could be worth the cost.
For now, the top offer on record is a second-round pick, but as the Cardinals keep the smoke billowing with visits and whispers, expect Rosen’s value to go up. True franchise quarterbacks are hard to acquire in the NFL. Teams may try to capitalize on the deflated value at first, but the Cardinals won’t bite. Not when they have more to gain. They have all the leverage, and as long as they play their cards right, they’ll get what they want for Rosen.
Is Josh Rosen worth the risk for the Redskins?
Between you and me, this question is subjective. After watching the tape, I’m convinced that Josh Rosen is still a franchise quarterback in waiting. You can click the links to the film, and you might see something different. That’s the beauty of subjectivity.
But teams were high enough on Rosen to view him as a first-round pick last year. Despite phantom character concerns, a team traded up into the top ten to acquire Josh Rosen. And despite being in an awful situation for a rookie in his first year, Rosen showcased some of the traits that made him one of the 2019 NFL Draft’s premier prospects.
If we’re going off the findings that were presented in this article, after a careful study of the tape, then Josh Rosen is a franchise quarterback. And he’s very much worth the risk for the Redskins.
Rosen’s complex combination of experience, youth, mental quickness, mechanical polish, arm talent, and accuracy, is a very rare one, and for the Redskins, who want a young quarterback on a cheap rookie deal, but don’t necessarily want to go through the hassle of introducing a rookie quarterback to a new system and a new league, Rosen is exactly what they need to maximize their hopes of winning now. If you need to give up the No. 15 pick, do it. Because you’re not getting a better quarterback if you trade up in this class.
Rebuilds take time. They take patience. The Redskins don’t have either. But for all their misses, all their inconsistencies, and all their ultimately damning faults, the Redskins have one thing going for them: They are bold. And if they make the bold decision to trade for Josh Rosen, it’s the best chance at winning now they can get.