Kyler Murray has been making headlines lately and is one of the most polarizing prospects in the 2019 NFL Draft. Here’s why the Redskins could consider him in the first round of the draft.
Few prospects are going to spark more debate than Kyler Murray will this season. The Oklahoma product was a one-year starter for the Sooners and won the Heisman. He did a terrific job taking over for Baker Mayfield, but few thought he was a legitimate NFL prospect. The reason? He had signed a contract with the Oakland Athletics after being the ninth pick in the 2018 MLB Draft.
Still, the A’s allowed Murray to play his final season of college football, and he was prolific. He did a lot to establish himself as a playmaker and he has been on the rise as a result of this. He ended up timing his draft decision perfectly, as the 2019 NFL Draft is weak at the quarterback position. And now, it appears that he has chosen football.
Murray is in the running to be the first quarterback off the board in the 2019 draft. While that could happen, he’s still not a shoo-in. Teams could be scared off by his lack of size, and that may cause him to slide a bit. He will still almost certainly be a first-round pick — because of the lack of true franchise quarterbacks in the NFL — but he’s far from a top-10 lock and despite what some say, there is a chance that he could be on the board for the Redskins selection at 15.
If Murray is on the board, he will certainly be an option for the quarterback-needy Redskins. Here’s an in-depth look at Murray’s skill set and why he could fit in with Washington.
Scouting Kyler Murray
When watching Murray on tape, it’s clear that he has arm talent. He has good arm strength and excellent accuracy that one would expect from a quarterback/baseball player. He threw for 42 touchdowns last season at Oklahoma and was good at finding open receivers and hitting them with accurate ball placement.
Murray also has elite athletic ability for a quarterback. He can scramble and move around the pocket very well and is surprisingly good at avoiding contact which is great for a quarterback. This will be an important trait, as it will really make Murray a dual-threat at the NFL level.
If an NFL offensive coordinator can scheme around Murray’s lack of height, the system could work out well and Murray could become a Russell Wilson-type playmaker at the next level. Still, there are concerns with Murray and they mostly relate to his size.
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Murray is only about 5-foot-9 or 5-foot-10. This didn’t affect him much at Oklahoma, but they are a Big 12 team that runs a spread offense where it is much easier to see the field. It might be harder for him to do that in more of a pro-style system. Also, in recent memory, Wilson has been the only player to become a true franchise quarterback at that height. And even then, Wilson is taller and has a thicker build than Murray, so he was built to take more hits than Murray at the NFL level.
The other major concern with Murray is his lack of starting experience at quarterback. Murray only started 14 games for the Sooners and they all came last season. Because of this, it may take him longer to develop into a quality starter at the NFL level.
Having few starts under one’s belt hasn’t been a problem in recent years — Mitchell Trubisky was the No. 2 pick in 2017 after just 13 career starts — so that probably won’t have much of an impact on when Murray is selected. However, his lack of experience could give him more of a learning curve in the NFL and he may need a season or two before developing into a true starter. That must be taken into account with his evaluation.
How Murray fits with the Redskins
It’s pretty easy to see how Murray would fit in with the Redskins. The team is expecting that Alex Smith won’t play in the 2019 campaign, and even beyond that, his future is unclear. So, the team needs a long-term potential franchise quarterback to eventually replace Smith while keeping the team competitive in the short-term.
Even if the team is confident that they can start Colt McCoy for a season, they are going to have to add depth at the quarterback position at some point. And besides, McCoy is 31, so he doesn’t have a lot of long-term upside. If anything, McCoy is just a band-aid that will help keep the team stabilize the team, not bring them to the next level.
Murray would offer the Redskins something that they desperately need at quarterback. Dynamic playmaking ability and upside. Sure, he has concerns as we addressed in the previous slide, but the fact of the matter is that he could be a game changer. He has arm talent. He has mobility. He has solid football IQ. It’s just a matter of whether or not that will translate to the next level.
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Perhaps even more important in Murray’s fit with the ‘Skins is his impact on the fan-base and the salary cap. The Redskins fan base is as disgruntled as ever and there is little excitement about the team leading up to the 2019 season. The brain trust of Dan Snyder and Bruce Allen could decide that the Heisman winner would excite the fans and make them forgive and forget some of the transgressions the team made earlier in the offseason.
Of course, Murray is a polarizing prospect, so there are some detractors in the fan base that would be upset to see the squad pick him. But, there would be some excitement to see how he performs from all parties. And that could distract momentarily from the constant dysfunction that has marred the franchise.
Regarding the salary cap, Murray would be on a cost-controlled rookie contract that would have five years on it (assuming the team takes him in Round 1 and exercises his year-five option). If the Redskins selected Murray with the 15th pick, he would likely sign a deal worth about $14 million over four years (based on last year’s 15th pick Kolton Miller‘s contract) and would carry a cap hit ranging from $2.5-$4 million for four years.
Given that the injured Smith will carry a $20 million-plus cap hit for each of the next two seasons before the squad has a palatable way to get out of the contract, Murray would help to offset the imbalance in the cap. It would certainly be better than targeting a higher-cost veteran on the free agent market. That would sink too many resources into the quarterback position. So financially, this would probably be the team’s best option.
Should the Redskins draft Murray in Round 1?
If available, it’s going to be difficult for the Redskins to avoid taking Kyler Murray. Simply put, he has enormous potential and upside that could appeal to a lot of teams in the league. He would add excitement to a fan base that desperately needs something to believe in.
But at the same time, the risks could outweigh the reward with Murray. His short, compact frame may make it difficult for him to take hits at the NFL level. His stature might be a concern too, though it didn’t impact him much at Oklahoma.
However, one of the biggest concerns is that Murray could turn away at any point and go play baseball if he desires to do that. He could actually use that as leverage to land on a team he wants to play on, much like Eli Manning did when he worked his way from the Chargers to the Giants in the 2004 NFL Draft. Murray could get drafted by a team like the Redskins and decide he’d rather play baseball — unless he’s traded. That potential drama would certainly be bad news for the organization, though Murray hasn’t shown any indication of controlling his landing spot…yet.
Also, it’s hard to trust that Murray is committed to football entirely. After all, he did tell the A’s that he would play baseball. And that didn’t happen. So, those concerns must be addressed.
In this analyst’s opinion, it seems that taking Murray early simply carries too much risk. The Redskins would probably be better served waiting on a quarterback until the middle rounds and they could target a top option in the superior 2020 NFL Draft if all else fails. Murray could turn into a franchise quarterback, but Washington should let another team take the bait on him while they build up the rest of their squad.
It’s possible that Murray won’t even be on the board, but if he is, the Redskins will have to think long and hard about his fit with the squad.