The offseason is here. And after a brief spat of recurrent front office chaos, it’s hard to expect what the Redskins might do.
If traditional habits hold, Washington Redskins owner Dan Snyder and president Bruce Allen might convince themselves that their team is better than it actually is. They might see Derrius Guice, and the team’s dominant defensive line, and the trusty veterans at left tackle, outside linebacker, and cornerback, and they might find that they’re “close”.
Reality is something Snyder and Allen have willfully and consistently avoided during their arduous tenure in D.C. And reality in 2019 doesn’t come with any extra glamor, even after the turn of the new year.
To measure reality, we’ll take a look at each individual position group for the Redskins, and grade them in terms of both current value and future outlook (grades are subjective, sorry). Position groups have been categorized into three sections: Minimal needs, moderate needs, and pressing needs.
What you’ll find over the course of the next few slides is that Washington, where it counts, is universally average, at the very best. The roster was hailed as an underrated group last offseason. One year later, they won’t get the same generous recognition.
Minimal Needs
The Redskins are an intriguing team, in this respect: The team’s middle class of talent is relatively large. There are only three positions of minimal need, positions where Washington is largely set, both for the present and for the future. Those positions are listed as follows:
12 – Interior Defensive Line (A)
The Redskins invested two consecutive first-round picks into their interior defensive line, as well as two fifth-round picks over the past three drafts, and that investment has paid off in earnest. The rotational starting trio of Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne, and Matt Ioannidis has already generated exceptional results at exceptional value, and if Jim Tomsula remains in Washington, the potential for this unit, with Tim Settle and Caleb Brantley providing high-upside depth, is truly unmatched. It’s a unnaturally bright spot on a team with too many rough patches.
11 – Special Teams (A)
The only thing keeping this unit from an A+ grade is Nick Sundberg’s injury. Sundberg was moved straight to injured reserve ahead of Washington’s season finale, and there isn’t much clarity surrounding his injury right now. But Sundberg is still signed through 2020, and even if his future ends up involving a release, Andrew East performed well in relief of the veteran against the Eagles. With Tress Way emerging as the best punter in the NFL in 2018, and Dustin Hopkins reaffirming confidence with his stellar play (missed four total kicks on the year), Washington shouldn’t spend much time scouting special teams this offseason.
10 – Running Back (A-)
Some might be less sold on the Redskins’ running back situation, but with a full year to rehabilitate his knee, Derrius Guice should be back to full strength by early summer. At full strength, Guice is a first-round talent, and has the potential to be a dynamic playmaker for the Redskins on offense, something they desperately need. With Adrian Peterson serving as a mentor (assuming he’s re-signed), and Chris Thompson reprising his role as a scat back, Washington should have a very effective stable in 2019.
Moderate Needs
This is where the 2019 Redskins are: Drifting in an ocean of roster construction confusion and non-confluence. Six of the Redskins twelve main position groups can be classified as average or lower. The root cause? Aging players. Unsavory contracts. And a lack of uniformity. Over the past few years, the Redskins have added some good players. But they failed to build their roster with a future vision, and now the pieces don’t complete a full puzzle. The end result of addition without direction is confusion. Let’s sift through it.
9 – Tight End (C+)
It was one of the best tight end groups in the NFL not too long ago, but now, there is serious concern surrounding Washington’s tight end depth chart. Jordan Reed still can’t stay healthy, and it’s unclear if Vernon Davis will return for another NFL season after ending 2018 with a concussion. Jeremy Sprinkle is the only semi-reliable player in tow, and although both Matt Flanagan and J.P. Holtz have generated some excitement (Chris Cooley has tirelessly talked up Flanagan, and Holtz was recently extended through 2020), some more proven talent could certainly be added here.
A parting side note: The Redskins could part ways with Reed this offseason, and with relatively little dead cap – just $3.6 million, compared to what would’ve been $13.6 million last offseason. But per ESPN’s John Keim, Jay Gruden doesn’t sound like he’s in a rush to get rid of Reed. Expect the oft-injured, contractually cumbersome Reed to return in 2019, for better or worse.
8 – Cornerback (C+)
Washington’s cornerback situation comes with a few silver linings. Quinton Dunbar has clearly developed into starting corner, and with a full offseason to battle his nerve issue, he should be able to come back and effectively resume his starting role. With his combination of length, quickness, and mental preparation, he can truly be a No.1 cornerback. Fabian Moreau, while inconsistent, showed some growth as the team’s slot cornerback in 2018, and with two years left on his rookie deal, he should continue to develop. Greg Stroman also flashed as a top reserve, and it’s not brash to suggest that he could end up having an increased role with more development.
The brunt of uncertainty at cornerback for Washington regards Josh Norman. Norman recently turned 31 years old, and although he embarked on another fairly solid season for the Redskins in 2018, the cliff could come at any time now. His cap figure looms at $14.5 million in 2019, and if released, he’d encumber the Redskins with just $6 million in dead cap, compared to what would have been a whopping $22.3 million last year. With Norman, the Redskins are stuck wondering when their No. 1 cornerback will stop playing quality football. But without Norman, the Redskins would have to find another starter. This offseason, they must decide his future.
7 – Interior Offensive Line (C)
Chase Roullier is an able starter, but at offensive guard, the Redskins have some questions to answer. If he can come back from a torn pectoral, Brandon Scherff is still a borderline All-Pro guard. But a full recovery from that kind of injury is nothing to simply expect, and at left guard, Washington is still searching for answers. The team could try and trot out Jonathan Cooper, as he showed some promise this season. But after what came of the Redskins’ offensive line plans in 2018, hoping to luck into finding a solution shouldn’t be their go-to strategy.
6 – Offensive Tackle (C)
The Redskins’ tackle situation is deteriorating faster than some might be willing to realize. Trent Williams, almost the team’s sole claim of top-end talent, will be turning 31 years old in July, and he already has a lengthy, and recent, injury history. Ty Nsekhe, the team’s swing tackle, isn’t any younger, but he could almost challenge Morgan Moses for the starting right tackle spot, as Moses regressed substantially in 2019. And although Geron Christian is only in his second year, he did little to earn confidence in his short time on the field.
Knowing how the Redskins function, they could end up doing absolutely nothing at tackle, opting to stick with what they have. In that scenario, it would not be surprising to see the team’s offensive line crumble again in 2019. They may not want to admit it, but help is needed at offensive tackle, and sooner rather than later.
5 – Edge Rusher (C)
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Preston Smith might end up leaving the Redskins this offseason, and with his theoretical departure (Jay Gruden said the team would like him back, per J.P. Finlay, but his free agency has been acknowledged), the Redskins would have a void on the edge, opposite Ryan Kerrigan. Edge rusher is one of the most important positions on defense, as it directly impacts the passer. Thus, the Redskins need to add talent in that department.
It’s worth noting that 2017 second-round pick Ryan Anderson was productive in brief stints last year, but assuming he’ll develop to a starter’s caliber in one offseason is dangerous. Proven talent is needed in Washington on the edge. Bend and speed are the key traits to seek; those are two traits that the Redskins lack, and two traits that could complement Ryan Kerrigan’s brute strength and fundamental prowess well.
4 – Inside Linebacker (C-)
The Redskins predicament at inside linebacker is a two-sided coin in every sense of the word. On one side, you have a starter in waiting in Shaun Dion Hamilton, and a starter in waiting in Reuben Foster, if his legal issues are cleared. Josh Harvey-Clemons has carved out a role as a solid depth player who made several plays on running back spy duty. Zach Vigil adds to that depth.
On the flip side, however, Mason Foster, the team’s 2018 defensive captain, is a liability both on and off the field, who’s better off moved on from, and Zach Brown, while talented and committed to financially, has said that “the writing is on the wall“, pertaining to his future with the Redskins.
From a mental standpoint, the Redskins might need a clean slate at inside linebacker. But such a change comes with inevitable uncertainty. And even if Reuben Foster is able to play, he showed he couldn’t be consistently relied upon off the field in San Francisco. Kyle Shanahan said as much. There’s no guarantee he’ll find his way in Washington. If the Redskins have a chance to add speed, and smarts, to their defensive interior this offseason, they need to do it. Dion Hamilton is a promising start, but he can’t do it alone.
In theory, the Redskins could spend their 2019 first-round pick on any of the aforementioned position groups, aside from tight end. But these are not the most pressing needs. Those lie ahead.
Pressing Needs
3 – Wide Receiver (D+)
This harsh grade for the Redskins receiving core isn’t based on the personnel alone. It’s important to give credit where it’s due. Josh Doctson did carve out a role as the 2018 season went along. Jamison Crowder capitalized on opportunities late in the year. Trey Quinn flashed while he was healthy, as did Paul Richardson.
None of these little victories change the truth, however. The Redskins lack playmakers on offense, particularly at wide receiver. Players that elevate an offense. And while it’s okay to believe that Cam Sims or Robert Davis might have that type of upside, it’s not exactly realistic. As of now, the Redskins have a serious talent void at wide receiver, and with a very deep, top-heavy receiver class on the way, Washington can’t miss out on adding a dynamic threat. Without that dynamic threat, Washington’s receiving core will be one of the most painfully average units in the NFL for another year. No matter how good Trey Quinn is.
2 – Quarterback (D)
There’s a difference between saying quarterback is a top need for the Redskins, and saying that they need to draft a quarterback in Round 1. Quarterback is undoubtedly a top need. Alex Smith‘s football future is still questionable, and behind him, the Redskins have Josh Johnson and Colt McCoy. The former hasn’t even been signed for 2019 yet, and the latter is a backup, and nothing more.
If Washington wants to compete in 2019 (as unreasonably hopeful as it might be), they can’t assume Smith will come back on time; they need to add a quarterback. But with so many fundamental needs across the board, gauging the free agent market might be a better option than going all in on a weak quarterback draft class. Andy Dalton has past experience with Jay Gruden, and Ryan Tannehill fits his system. They aren’t exciting options, but a bridge is needed, at the very least, to have a shot at getting the most out of the current roster’s most appealing traits.
That said, with just above $17 million in cap space, and a truckload of guarantees already tied up with Alex Smith’s contract (and over $50 million in dead cap if he’s released), Washington might not have the flexibility to pick and choose in free agency. No one likes it, but a bottom-dwelling season might be the cost of the unfortunate circumstances that have accrued. In that scenario, the Redskins would get a high pick next year, in a better quarterback class. It would take patience, and come at the cost of precious time, but it might be necessary for long-term stability.
That’s a conversation for another day, however. There’s one more need we’ve yet to discuss.
The Redskins Top Need
At the beginning of the 2018 season, this position group was one of the Redskins’ best. The deterioration of the Washington Redskins safety situation has been swift and unrelenting, and in 2019, the team is back where it started.
1 – Safety (D-)
Ever since the death of Sean Taylor, the Washington Redskins have toiled at safety, finding little sustained success. At the start of 2018, there was a certain aura of security surrounding D.J. Swearinger and Montae Nicholson. The former was coming off a four-interception campaign for the burgundy and gold, and the latter was viewed as a vital long-term piece of the defense.
Fast forward to now. Swearinger is with the Cardinals after his post-game comments in Week 16 led to his release. And Nicholson, after having been arrested for assault, ended the season on the team’s reserve/NFI list. His future with the team is uncertain, to say the least.
The Redskins will likely release their only remaining starter, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, to free agency. The former Packer was a trade deadline dud with the Redskins, giving up big plays on almost a weekly basis. Once Clinton-Dix leaves, as he inevitably should, Washington’s safety group will look like this:
Deshazor Everett, Troy Apke, Harlan Miller, Jeremy Reaves.
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In the modern NFL, offense trumps defense, but if you can build an elite secondary, you can stand a chance against the playmakers on the other side. Six months ago, the Redskins were a lot closer than they are now. But that doesn’t mean they can’t work their way back. This offseason, finding a traits-dominant safety should be a top priority for Washington. Blown coverages and missed tackles on the back end hurt Washington’s defense in 2018. This offseason, they need to plug the leak.