Injured, but still in first place, the Redskins embark on the second half of the season with plenty of challenges, but still in control of their destiny.
It’s Week 10 in the NFL, and the Redskins are about to embark on the second half of their season. Nobody but the most optimistic fan would have expected the Redskins to be 5-3, 2-0 in the division, and in first place through eight games. So those who are “Chicken Little-ing” after that terrible beat-down loss to Atlanta need to dial down their rhetoric.
Even with the major injury news this week, namely the Redskins losing three more starters for the season, the season is far from over. With two games looming against Philadelphia, the Redskins simply have to win three of their other games and split with the Eagles to win the division. When you consider that Philly already has four losses and must play New Orleans and the Rams on the road, nine wins including a split with Philly should get this team into the playoffs.
Coming off that embarrassing loss to Atlanta, it might seem silly to think that way…but that’s what these articles are about. Reality instead of hysteria.
The Redskins face a different, but similar, test in Tampa Bay to what they faced in Atlanta last week. While on the surface, Tampa Bay and Atlanta present similar challenges, some key differences make this week a unique challenge compared to last week. Let’s dive into the Week 10 Redskins reality checks to take a look at what Reality Is for this game.
1. The Reality Is, the Redskins’ offense has been disappointing this season.
Ask anyone familiar with Jay Gruden, and they’d be able to tell you he’s an offensive-minded coach with a successful track record of presiding over offenses that could move the ball and put up points. In most cases with decent weapons, but rarely with elite players.
In the past three seasons, the Redskins, under Jay Gruden, have been efficient and successful offensively, while their defense has been their downfall. So, if you’d have told me over the summer that the Redskins would have a top-10 defense in almost every meaningful statistic, I would have suggested the Redskins would be a real juggernaut of a team, because I would assume that the offense would at least be consistent and efficient.
However, the offense has been underwhelming for most of the season, and downright terrible for large stretches. This week, I’ll be looking for signs of creativity and innovativeness. I’ll be looking for Gruden, Cavanaugh, O’Connell and Callahan to scheme up some ways to take pressure off the patchwork offensive line and move the chains.
While the offensive line injuries are a valid and significant hurdle this week, it’s times like these when good coaches earn their stripes.
Prediction: The offensive line holds up admirably, the Redskins run the ball effectively, and the passing attack includes a lot more boot and sweep action. I expect 400 yards of total offense relatively evenly split between the first and second half.
2. The Reality Is, Alex Smith is coming off his best overall game of the season.
Lost in the overall offensive futility of the Redskins’ loss to Atlanta was Alex Smith’s most complete game of the season. The constant offensive line injuries and penalties, mixed in with some terrible drops and bad missed calls all combined to keep the Redskins’ office in check on Sunday. However, Smith still managed to put together a 300-yard day, almost none of which was in garbage time.
He is going to have to build on that progress — and likely even pick up some slack for the new offensive linemen if the Redskins have any chance of scoring enough to beat the Buccaneers. If Alex Smith is going to win the Redskins any game this season (as opposed to simply not losing them) this is the week for it.
Prediction: This will be Smith’s best game of the season. He knows how important this win could be for the team to make it to the playoffs. He knows there are a lot of potential excuses to be made if they don’t get the W. But this is a game when leaders find a way, and deep down, more than anything else, Smith is just that. He will put in his best effort to date in the Burgundy and Gold.
3. The Reality Is, Adrian Peterson hasn’t had back-to-back bad games all season.
Adrian Peterson has gained 96, 20, 120, 6, 97, 99, 149, and 17 yards rushing in the Redskins’ eight games so far this season. Each time he’s had a sub-par performance, he’s bounced back the following week.
Is that because of scheme or fit? Maybe. Is it because of game situations? Some.
Is it because he’s a proud athlete who simply refuses to be held down in consecutive contests? That’s my vote. I think his work ethic, savvy and drive make it very unlikely that he allows one down week to turn into two straight.
Tampa Bay gives up over 100 yards per game on the ground. An underrated issue this week, though, is chemistry between Peterson and all these new offensive linemen. I’ll be on the lookout for how the line blocks for AP, and I’ll be on the lookout for how much he trust them to handle their blocks inside, rather than simply bouncing plays outside all game.
Prediction: The Redskins find themselves in a bit more of a shootout than expected, Kapri Bibbs gets more touches than AP, and AP has more receiving yards than rushing yards.
4. The Reality Is, Tampa Bay is “Atlanta-Lite” and the Redskins can’t afford a repeat performance.
Tampa Bay has a similar offensive explosiveness to Atlanta. Tampa Bay also has similar defensive vulnerabilities. The glaring difference is that Tampa Bay is dead last in the league in turnover differential.
If the Redskins allow Tampa Bay 10-for-13 on 3rd downs, they have no chance in this game. If they allow Tampa Bay’s defense to gain some confidence with several early three-and-outs, the Redskins have no chance in this game. If they can’t force multiple turnovers, they have no chance in this game.
I’ll be focusing particularly on the Redskins’ offensive and defensive lines in this game. Against a team this unbalanced with a terrible defense and excellent offense, the trenches are where the Redskins must outperform expectations. The offensive line has to hold up and the defensive line has to be impactful.
Prediction: The Redskins will look vastly different this week than they did against Atlanta. There will not be many similarities between the games because the Redskins will not suffer the plague of penalties and injuries like they did against Atlanta. Expect a much more evenly matched game this week with a more back-and-forth feel as opposed to the tilted field feeling we got last week.
5. The Reality Is, the Redskins’ defense has something to prove.
The Redskins have faced four competent passing attacks this season. They got beat by the Colts. The Packers had a gimpy Aaron Rodgers and a case of the dropsies. The Saints and Falcons hung 81 combined points on them. The Redskins’ defense needs to prove they can actually guard and limit a competent passing attack.
I’ll be watching to see if Quinton Dunbar plays. I’ll be watching to see if Danny Johnson gets playing time over Greg Stroman. I’ll be watching to see if Ha Ha Clinton-Dix looks more comfortable and fluid in the offense. I’ll be looking to see if Josh Norman follows Mike Evans. I’ll be looking to see if the pass rush can get back to consistent pressure and collapsing the pocket.
Prediction: The Redskins will try something dramatically different in covering crossing routes this week and it will work much better. Swearinger and Clinton-Dix will each force a turnover. A rookie or Norman will get beat for a long TD by DeSean Jackson.
6. The Reality Is, Gruden needs to muster another miracle result.
In Seattle last year, the Redskins went in with about the same offensive line circumstances and somehow managed to take advantage of all the breaks and hang around long enough for a miracle at the end to beat the Seahawks. Given the circumstances, it was one of the most improbable results of the entire season.
In 2015, the Redskins were down 24-0 to Tampa Bay and they mounted an improbable comeback to win the game 31-30. In both instances, the odds were stacked against the Redskins. In both cases, they overcame significant hurdles to get a win.
In this game, the Redskins are on the road against a legitimate offense. They are missing both of their Pro Bowl offensive linemen and will likely be down two more starters (or maybe 1.75 with Moses out there on one leg and with limp arm).
I’ll be watching to see if Gruden coaches this game like he has his back against the wall or like he has a 1 game cushion in the division. I’ll be watching for some sign of life from the return game. I’ll be watching for some creativity in the pass-rush and the passing game.
I’ll be watching for some anger from the defense after getting punked last week, and to see if the defensive line can out-scheme the Buccaneers’ offensive line. I’ll be watching for the Redskins to win the discipline battle – positive turnover ratio, positive penalties breakdown, positive field position, and positive game and clock management.
Prediction: Once again, the Redskins face the opportunity to fold, and once again, the leadership won’t allow it to happen. The Redskins play better on the road than at home, and they play better when the expectations are low. I think the Redskins get back on the win-loss roller coaster with a win in Tampa Bay. They’ll win a nail-biter 26-25 with the defense or special teams scoring or gifting the offense one of their touchdowns.
Can they do it? Join the conversation @TheRealityIs__ on Twitter or in the comments below.