The last time the Redskins played the Atlanta Falcons, they lost on a pick six in overtime. They’ll hope to avoid the same outcome this time around.
This time around, the Washington Redskins‘ season doesn’t quite hang in the balance. As of now, they’re 5-2, atop the NFC East by a total of one and a half games; the Philadelphia Eagles are the next best team, sitting at 4-4. For now, the Redskins have a slight cushion.
That cushion, however, can dissolve away in a matter of weeks. All it takes is one bad showing, another bad showing, and the Redskins suddenly could find themselves on the outside looking in.
That said, the Redskins remaining schedule appears to be on the light side. Their remaining nine opponents hold a combined record of 29-39, and their next opponent, the Atlanta Falcons, are currently 3-4, and although they’ve won their last two games, against the Buccaneers and Giants respectively, they have a roster ailing from multiple injuries to starters.
While the Falcons are depleted, however, they could pose a serious threat to the Redskins in one key way, and they are not a team to be overlooked. How do the Redskins match up against the 2016 runner-ups?
Redskins offense vs. Falcons defense
This is where the Redskins could win or lose the game. The Falcons’ defense isn’t particularly scary, especially after season-ending injuries sustained by starters such as Keanu Neal, Deion Jones, and Ricardo Allen. If there’s any game in which Washington’s passing offense can exploit a defense, it’s this one. And that might be the problem.
So far this season, Alex Smith has failed to get the most out of his offensive weapons. The talent is there; Josh Doctson has seemingly found a niche in recent weeks, Paul Richardson has the speed to make an impact both after the catch and down the field, and the tight end duo of Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis makes for exciting possibilities.
An attempt has been made to give the Redskins’ playmakers opportunities, and in recent weeks, the offensive line has improved, from a pass blocking standpoint, giving Alex Smith more time to process. In the end, it all comes down to Smith, and he needs to be better.
Sunday is a prime opportunity for Smith to elevate his game. The Falcons have some threats on defense; Grady Jarrett is a top-tier defensive tackle, and rookie USF product Deadrin Senat has played well next to him. Damontae Kazee has also played at a high level, notching three interceptions in the Falcons’ secondary, but aside from him, the Falcons are seriously lacking in the latter two levels.
De’Vondre Campbell and Duke Riley have been liabilities at linebacker for Atlanta this year, and Desmond Trufant has not been the same steady force in coverage, allowing two touchdowns and a passer rating above 100.0 thus far. Pressure hasn’t been a consistent commodity from Vic Beasley, who was the NFL’s sack leader in 2016, and tackling has also been a major concern. Per Pro Football Focus, the Falcons, as a team, have the third worst tackling rating in the league (Redskins have the ninth-best rating in tackling).
The Falcons are depleted in the second and third levels. Thus, their strength is their front, and their run defense, but even there, they aren’t deep (Terrell McClain is their top backup. Come on). That said, although Adrian Peterson has been consistent for the Redskins, he could have trouble on Sunday with Jarrett and Senat. If there was ever a game where Alex Smith might be needed, and might have an opportunity to improve on his current play, the Falcons game is it.
Redskins defense vs. Falcons offense
This should be a fun matchup to watch.
Washington’s defense has been playing at an incredible level over the past few weeks, and the best part is that they still have yet to reach their potential. Quinton Dunbar has been injured. Preston Smith’s upside still feels somewhat untapped, and the team just added former Pro Bowl safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, who should mesh well beside All-Pro candidate D.J. Swearinger. The move would also relegate Montae Nicholson back to his outfielder role, where he can shine.
The Redskins’ defense is a borderline elite unit, and with Devonta Freeman on injured reserve, they should be able to uphold their success against the run. But the running game isn’t where Atlanta excels. It’s the passing game.
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Matt Ryan has been a torrid streak ever since Week 2 of this season. On the year, he has, through seven games, a completion percentage of 71.1, 15 touchdowns to only two interceptions, and a total of 2,335 yards through the air. He’s on pace for over 5,000 yards, and he could end up mirroring the stat totals that saw him win MVP in 2016.
There’s a reason for Ryan’s re-emergence, or perhaps three. The wide receiver trio of Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, and Calvin Ridley has few rivals as one of the best in the league, and the contrast between Atlanta’s receiver group and Washington’s receiver group is stark. There is too much talent at quarterback and receiver for the Falcons to feign success. And so, in spite of Steve Sarkisian’s play calling, they have excelled in recent weeks.
That said, the Falcons’ most recent wins have come against the Giants and the Buccaneers, two of the absolute worst pass defenses in the NFL. The Redskins are a different beast. Ever since the Saints’ loss, their defensive backs have played with energy, attitude, and relentless aggression. D.J. Swearinger is all over the field. Josh Norman locked down Odell Beckham last week. Quinton Dunbar is returning soon, and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix will join the fold as an established, versatile starter.
Units have to earn nicknames, even if those nicknames are self-imposed. Through seven weeks, the Redskins’ secondary has earned the ‘Flight Marshals’ moniker, and against the Falcons, they’ll have a chance to prove why they deserve it.
Redskins vs. Falcons score prediction
When I write pieces that include score predictions, I do it a weird way. I write the score prediction first, as a gut feeling of sorts, and through the act of researching and writing, I either convince myself that the score is correct, or I modify my initial conclusion.
I originally predicted the Falcons to win this game. Their offense is truly high-powered, and they have the motivation to win, down but not out in the early playoff race.
That said, the Redskins seem to be the more well-rounded team. The Falcons would be, if fully healthy, but injuries have ravaged their roster, much like what happened to the Redskins last year. They’re down their starting running back, two starting offensive linemen, and three key defenders. Matt Ryan and the offense can keep them in games, but with so many holes, it will be tough for them to withstand heightened adversity.
The Redskins, meanwhile, have a defense that is well-equipped to handle what the Falcons throw at them, and the offense, while limited to this point, has a mechanism for success: Run the ball, churn the chains, and don’t turn the ball over.
Regardless, this game will be close; the Falcons are a well-coached team, and they have the talent to compete, even if injuries have sullened their season. But I think (going against my better judgement to avoid the jinx) the Redskins will carry their momentum from a three-game winning streak and find a way to edge out the Falcons. It may come down to the wire; Washington’s style of play encourages such an outcome. But even if Washington might only know how to win close, they still know how to win.
So, if the Redskins lose, you can blame me.
Score Prediction: WAS 27, ATL 23
What do you think about this score prediction? Have thoughts leading into the Redskins upcoming matchup? Feel free to voice your thoughts and opinions in the comments section below.