It’s time for Redskins Reality Checks for Dallas Week (Week 7 vs. the Dallas Cowboys) as we check in to see if they can sustain success for the first time this season.
When I was a kid, I loved going on the tilt-a-whirl at Busch Gardens. Many of my friends would get sick from the g-forces, but it didn’t bother me, and I loved holding on for dear life, trying not to slide up and down the bench.
So far this season, being a Redskins fan has been a lot like that experience…an endless cycle of ups and downs. The difference is, I’m not a kid anymore, and now, that makes me nauseous. The season thus far has looked like this: Impressive road win against Arizona; dizzyingly bad home loss to Indy; solid home win against Green Bay; horror-show road loss to New Orleans; gutsy home win against Carolina.
ESPN’s John Keim recently wrote a great piece about Jay Gruden’s desire to get the team off of the roller coaster. In many ways, this isn’t just about this season. The Redskins have been maddeningly mediocre for the better part of a decade. Sadly, that’s an improvement over what they were for most of the prior decade, but it sure does feel like the ups and downs just aren’t ever going to end.
But they have yet another chance to hit the eject button on that cycle this week in a big way. Coming off that important home win against Carolina, they now play host to Dallas in a key mid-season battle for first place in the division. Dallas is only a half game behind the Redskins in the standings after a beatdown of Jacksonville in which they played their best game of the season.
The Redskins are faced with their third opportunity this year to stack back-to-back wins. Let’s take a look at some reality checks and predictions on what to watch for and expect as the Redskins try to live up to the hype of Dallas Week and get off the tilt-a-whirl that has been the season so far.
I’m old enough to remember a time when the Redskins really struggled to pass protect against a bad Colts’ defensive line because of all the twists and stunts the Colts employed as part of their defensive scheme. So are most of the people reading this article, as that game was just about a month ago.
The Colts employ that scheme because they hired one of Rod Marinelli’s assistants, Matt Eberflus, as their defensive coordinator. The Redskins’ offensive line was fooled again by stunts and twists against Carolina, leaving Alex Smith with little to no time in the pocket on way too many pass plays last week.
I think Dallas has a better front seven than the Panthers and the Colts. If the Redskins don’t devise a much better plan to handle that action this week, Alex Smith is in for a really long day. I’ll be intently watching how the offensive line fares on Sunday.
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Given their personnel, I’d like to see the Redskins spreading out the Cowboys and running their offense out of shotgun a lot, to allow Alex to see the games happening in front of him and adjust accordingly.
I’d also like to see them experiment with Trent Williams at guard and Ty Nsekhe at left tackle. I think that would instantly clean up the left side and allow Roullier to return to his more natural position. That could feel like a desperation move, but if they care as much as the fans do about beating Dallas and taking a firm grip on the division, they’d give it a try.
Prediction: I don’t think they’ll be that bold. I think they’ll plod ahead with their same basic strategy, hopefully getting Lauvao back, and will slightly improve versus twists and stunts. While they won’t dominate Dallas’ front seven, I don’t think they’ll get dominated either. I don’t expect the game to be lost by our offensive line, but neither do I expect them to be a bright spot for the team this week.
2. Reality Is, the Cowboys really have two offensive weapons: Elliott and Beasley.
In three career games against the Redskins, Ezekiel Elliott has scored five touchdowns while averaging over 26 touches for 119-plus yards. It’s no coincidence that the Redskins have not been able to pull off a win in any of those contests.
Elliott, combined with the Cowboys’ solid offensive line, has ground down Redskins’ defenses, dominating time of possession and keeping the Redskins’ offense off the field. Those Redskins defenses were much worse against the run than this year’s iteration, however. According to Pro Football Reference, the Redskins’ rushing defensive rankings for 2016 and 2017 were 24th and 27th. The 2018 Redskins are ranked 4th in rushing defense.
Many factors contribute to those rankings, so it’s entirely possible the improvement is not as drastic as those rankings indicate. But anyone watching the games would not be much surprised by the data. This Redskins defense is dramatically improved against the run this year, and so there is reason to hope that they might be able to contain Ezekiel Elliott to a greater extent than they have been able to in his prior three starts against them.
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As for Beasley, he has more than twice as many catches as any other Cowboys’ receiver this year, and is so much more reliable of a weapon for Prescott than any of the other Dallas pass-catchers. If the Redskins can devise a plan to limit him, it will go a long way toward victory.
We shouldn’t expect either to be a non-factor. We shouldn’t expect either to be totally bottled up. But we should expect that this team comes ready to key on Elliott and Beasley and require the Cowboys to find another way to beat them.
Prediction: Elliott is too dynamic to be totally shut down, especially since Jason Garrett can be relied upon to get him plenty of touches. But the Redskins, I believe, will manage to avoid getting run into the ground by Elliott. He’ll end up with 25 touches for 98 yards and 1 TD. Beasley will get his targets, but I expect Fabian Moreau to do an effective job most of the game against Beasley. He’ll end up with 7 catches for 60 yards.
3. Reality Is, Dallas’ rush defense is statistically even better than Washington’s.
It’s no secret the Redskins would like to establish the run, dominate time of possession, keep Dallas’ pass rush off balance, and avoid getting into a shootout. It’s also true that Dallas has the No. 3 ranked rush defense in the league so far in 2018. This is likely where the game will be won or lost.
If Adrian Peterson can get going early and maintain success throughout, the Redskins should be able to put together enough scoring drives to outscore the Cowboys. If Peterson becomes the latest victim to a Dallas defense that has been bottling up runners all season, the Redskins may simply not have sufficient firepower to put enough points on the board to win.
We should expect Peterson to outdo his performances against the Colts and Saints, but it’s unrealistic to expect him to manage the 5.0-plus yards per carry clip he mustered against the Panthers.
Prediction: Peterson gets 24 carries for 88 yards and 1 TD, to go with two catches for 14 yards to just break the 100 total yards mark.
4. Reality Is, Alex Smith needs to build on the good plays and not the bad ones.
The Carolina game was a perfect microcosm of the season Alex Smith has put together, so far. He had some incredible plays and some head-scratchers. The Redskins pulled off the win thanks to his first half and in spite of his second half.
The first touchdown pass to Vernon Davis was set up by a beautiful fake with his eyes and shoulders to get the safeties to bite to the right side. The touchdown to Paul Richardson as well as beautiful dime he dropped to Richardson on the run later in the game both showed off Smith’s ability to slide in the pocket, avoid pressure, and hit a receiver working to the open spot.
Smith also missed a few blatantly open receivers, developed happy feet at times, and simply has not looked comfortable either in the pocket or on the move for long stretches of each game so far this season.
We should expect Smith, the veteran that he is, to build off the successful plays (and use similar concepts moving forward as well) and to avoid significant misses and miscues. He should even out his performance against the Cowboys and keep the Redskins in the game because of quick and correct decision-making.
Prediction: Dallas’ pass rush will be effective against Smith, but won’t get home against him nearly as much as feared. Smith will look more comfortable in the pocket than in previous weeks, and Gruden will also dial up more designed activity for Smith via bootlegs, RPO’s, designed runs, speed options, etc.
Smith will have his most complete and consistent game of the season. 21-for-28 for 240 yards, a TD, one pick, and 8 rushes for 40 yards.
5. Reality Is, the Redskins’ ability to handle week-to-week adversity doesn’t seem to translate to in-game adversity.
As we discussed last week, the Redskins have an uncanny ability to respond to a loss with a doubled-down focus on all that is necessary for a win the following week. They bounce back from adversity after a tough loss and almost always put together a complete game. That’s a credit to the coaching staff and the veteran leadership of the team. Jay Gruden has managed to light a fire under his guys after a loss as well as any coach in the NFL.
But halftime adjustments when they are losing at the midway point? First quarter adjustments when they’re down quickly? The ability to respond positively to a bad call against you? These have all proven elusive for the Redskins the past few years.
I’ll be watching closely to see how the Redskins handle any in-game adversity (self-inflicted or otherwise).
Prediction: This game will never get out of hand either direction and the few bad breaks the Redskins fall victim to will not derail them. For the first time this season, they will still be in a game in the 4th quarter in which they didn’t score first.
6. Reality Is, the Redskins’ divisional record under Jay Gruden is abysmal.
Given the structure of the NFL playoffs, divisional games take on an outsized significance. Any team making the playoffs without a winning divisional record is certainly an outlier. The Redskins are 4-8 in the NFC East in the past two seasons including 0-4 against the Cowboys. Not surprisingly, they also have failed to make the playoffs both years.
If the ‘Skins have any aspirations of making the playoffs this year, they must find a way to improve against the division. The players know these stats. They know how poor they have been against Dallas in recent memory. Jay Gruden certainly knows as well and has spoken this week about how important this game is for the team.
We should expect a playoff mentality from the Redskins on Sunday. We should anticipate the team lays it on the line to get over the hump. We should be very disappointed if they treat this game like they did the games against the Colts or Saints.
Prediction: Backs against the wall in a different (but no less real) way than last week, the team finally stands up and gives commendable effort against Dallas. The players and coaches continue the “Dallas Week” rhetoric all leading up to the game and manage to put a product on the field worthy of this great rivalry. Dallas goes up early, Redskins fight back and take the lead late in the fourth quarter, only to have Prescott lead a game-winning drive in the two-minute drill. There will not be many possessions in this game, with both teams sustaining long drives. Final score: Dallas 22, Washington 20.
Bonus Prediction: Another home loss to Dallas this week will lead to rampant speculation about how much rope Jay Gruden has left, including stories about how upset Owner Dan Snyder is. Remember, Snyder is a fan first, and he hates losing to Dallas as much as the rest of us.
I sure hope I’m wrong. I hate losing to Dallas. I hate that they have a winning streak against the Redskins. I hate coaching turnover and organizational turmoil. I hate that a loss at home to Dallas will feel like much, much worse than a simple loss, regardless of how the Redskins play. But I just think this is a bad matchup for the Redskins, and I don’t have a good feeling about it.
What do you think? Join the conversation @TheRealityIs__ on Twitter or in the comments below.