The Redskins played a clean game in the slop to hold off the Packers.
On a wet and sloppy day at FedEx field, in front of a small and near-neutral crowd, the Redskins put together their most impressive effort of the season, taking down the Packers to improve to 2-1 going into the bye. Despite the wet conditions, the Redskins were extremely sharp on both sides of the ball in the first half and took advantage of a few key errors by the Packers to hold off any comeback attempt in the second half. These are the types of games that good teams find a way to win at home.
And that’s just what the Redskins did. Does that make them a good team? No, but it helps build the case.
And on a day when teams like the Jaguars, Vikings, and Patriots (and Cowboys) lost and looked bad doing it. A win against a quality opponent tends to mean even more.
Three weeks into their season, the Redskins remain in 1st place in the NFC East and have as many 14-plus point wins as they did all of last season. It’s a small sample size, but it’s largely an encouraging sample.
But before we let ourselves get too carried away on the wave of inevitable optimism that comes from the Redskins beating Aaron Rodgers in relatively convincing fashion, let’s take a look back at the Redskins reality checks from before the weekend.
1. Reality Is, Aaron Rodgers is coming to town, but he’s not 100 percent.
I asked if the Redskins would see the Packers from the first half against Chicago and fourth quarter against Minnesota or the Packers of the first half against Minnesota and second half against Chicago.
Pre-game Prediction: I expect the Packers to be similarly effective this week as they were against Minnesota. I expect Rodgers to pull off a few crazy plays but mostly not be himself, avoid major mistakes, but not move the ball as efficiently as we tend to expect. I expect the Packers to win the special teams battle, but also give up some points to the Redskins’ defense.
Bonus Prediction: I expect this to feel more like a home game for the Packers than for the Redskins. The Redskins organization (not the current players or even coaches) haven’t earned loyalty from local fans, and I don’t expect many to turn out against Green Bay. But I do expect plenty of Packers fans to attend.
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Reality Check: Rodgers played admirably well, but was ultimately doomed by a few key drops and penalties, along with a few outstanding plays by the Redskins’ defense. While Rodgers wasn’t himself, but I’m old enough to remember the Redskins laying an egg against a great player who wasn’t 100 percent of himself.
This Redskins team, on this week, did enough to limit Rodgers and pressured the Packers into their first loss of the season. (And from the noise of the crowd, Redskins fans showed up in just enough force to keep this from feeling like a Packers home game. The Redskins never really letting the Packers into the game might have helped, too…funny how winning improves the crowd situation.)
2. Reality Is, the offensive line got really banged up this week.
I said that, generally, as this O-Line goes, so goes the team. They played very well in the run game and ok in the passing game in Week 1. In Week 2, they looked lost and largely ineffective in addition to getting banged up. I’ll be watching the line very anxiously on Sunday, hoping for a clean and effective performance without any more injuries.
Pre-game Prediction: Lauvao is inactive, so the starting 5 is Trent at LT, Roullier at LG, Bergstrom at C, Scherff at RG, and Moses at RT… and they’ll put together their most complete game of the season, limiting Green Bay to 2 sacks or less, while paving the way for a good offensive day overall.
Reality Check: These predictions turned out to be right on. The O-Line certainly did put together their most complete game of the season. Aided by a blown call on a Clay Matthews sack that was called roughing, they limited the Packers to zero sacks, while paving the way for an efficient running and passing attack in the slop.
Any time your starting running back goes for 120 yards and two TDs, the O-Line had a good day. Morgan Moses‘ concussion and Ty Nsekhe‘s subsequent penalty-fest were the only dampers on the day for the O-Line. Bergstrom and Roullier were very effective in both the running and passing games in their shifted roles. Scherff and Williams were their usual dominant selves. Hopefully, Moses doesn’t miss any time. I wouldn’t be shocked if the line that started this game ends up seeing more starts this season.
3. Reality Is, the game plan and play calling won’t be THAT bad again.
I said I would love to see the defense take the game to Aaron Rodgers with a variety of blitzes and plays his receivers in press coverage. And I’ll be excited if the offense utilizes more jet-sweep and screens, along with the interior passing and running games. I’ll be disappointed if either side of the ball allows the Packers to dictate the flow and feel of the game the way the Colts did.
Pre-game Prediction: The offense will move the ball more effectively and the game will come down to red zone effectiveness. They will mix in more intermediate passing and misdirection plays and will stick with the run more. The defense will be aggressive and effective early, but largely be too conservative in key spots late and let Rodgers have too much time unhurried and unhit, but will force two turnovers.
Reality Check: The offense was much more creative and aggressive early, the defense kept the pedal to the metal and didn’t just sit back in soft zones, even with the lead. The Redskins were extremely effective offensively in the first half, building a 28 point lead, and never giving the Packers an opportunity to hold the ball with a chance to take the lead.
In the second half, it was the offense that got too conservative, with Jay Gruden calling first down runs on every second-half possession, leading to 13 plays, 22 yards, and four punts on the first four possessions of the second half. The Redskins have to find a way to put together a complete game, or this game is going to be a rare bright spot this season.
4. Reality Is, if Ryan Kerrigan and Preston Smith don’t step up, it’s time to panic.
I said it was time for Kerrigan and Smith to step up and I would be excited to see both Smith and Kerrigan get off the schneid with at least one sack each. I also said I would be be disappointed if our only sacks come in garbage time.
Pre-game Prediction: Kerrigan gets one sack thanks to great coverage. Smith goes off with two sacks and a forced turnover.
Reality Check: Hold off on the panic at least one more game, because though neither Smith nor Kerrigan got a sack, Smith earned quite a few double-teams throughout the game, and Kerrigan earned two offensive holding penalties.
In addition, they set the edge to limit Rodgers’ ability to extend plays, and allowing Jonathan Allen (twice), Daron Payne, and Matt Ioannidis to sack Rodgers. I still remain concerned that these two haven’t been able to get home yet this season, but maybe they can get it figured out over the bye…they’d better, because Drew Brees and Cam Newton are up next.
5. Reality Is, Jordan Reed and Jamison Crowder have been quieter than expected.
I said I’d be happy to see them double their season production so far with a 15-150-1 line between them and that I’ll be disappointed if either of them is held under five catches for 65 yards.
Pre-game Prediction: Alex Smith and Jay Gruden are smart enough to make the adjustments and get these two the ball. Crowder gets 10 touches for 100 yards and a touchdown while Reed gets eight catches for 90 yards.
Reality Check: Reed and Crowder were extremely active in the first half, combining for a first-half line of 7-98-1 as part of the Redskins’ 28-point explosion in the first two frames. In the second half, Crowder added one more catch as well as a rush attempt for 12 more total yards, while Reed was shut out.
You have to think that if the Packers had kept the game closer, Crowder and Reed would have had more second half production, and while I would prefer a more aggressive approach with the lead, Crowder and Reed were clearly focal points of the offensive game plan, which you’d have to think is a recipe for sustainable success. Still waiting for that breakout game from each of them, though.
6. Reality is, the Redskins are better than they played against the Colts, but Gruden’s seat has to be feeling a bit warm, nonetheless.
I said another home-game dud this week would certainly lead to more consternation and uncomfortable discussions at the top of the organization, so Gruden needs to have his team ready to play this Sunday. Win or lose, they can’t look embarrassing. While he has no control over the broader organizational narrative and the game attendance, he very well might be the scapegoat of an embarrassed owner and team president if attendance and on-field performance don’t improve dramatically from last week.
Pre-game Prediction: This is a week-to-week league largely because players take their season one week at a time. Jay has rarely presided over back-to-back duds. I predict a much more focused, disciplined, and urgent effort from the Redskins this week, leading to a close game. But it won’t be enough. The Packers will win 31-27, and the ‘Skins go into the bye-week 1-2 with lots of work to do.
Reality Check: The Redskins put together another stellar performance in an important spot to beat the Packers convincingly, 31-17. All three phases of the team showed up, and the Redskins benefitted from the Packers looking a bit out of sorts offensively. Only time will tell if that was more about the Redskins’ defense being really good or the Packers just having an off day.
Tress Way punted fantastically. The Redskins ran the ball effectively, passed it efficiently, forced a key turnover and dominated field position. Hopkins made his only field goal attempt. As a Redskins fan, I’m conditioned to worry that they won’t be able to take that momentum through the bye into New Orleans. But maybe this team is different. We’ll see.
Hit me up on Twitter @TheRealityIs__ and we’ll keep the conversation going over the bye week. In the meantime, enjoy celebrating this win for 15 days.