Redskins Reality Check: Realistic predictions for the team in Week 1 vs. Cardinals

Tim Payne

LANDOVER, MD - AUGUST 24: Running back Adrian Peterson #26 of the Washington Redskins looks on before playing the Denver Broncos during a preseason game at FedExField on August 24, 2018 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

The NFL season, and Washington Redskins season is here. And with them, come a lot of expectations and crazy predictions. Here are some reality checks and more realistic predictions for the Redskins ahead of their first game of the year against the Arizona Cardinals.

Real NFL football is (finally) upon us! The 2018 Washington Redskins open their season this Sunday against the Cardinals in the thankfully air-conditioned confines of Discount Double-Check Arena (or whatever they call it now). One of those few times I’m in agreement that an indoor game makes sense…we don’t need anybody going down from heat stroke in the desert.

And with the countdown to Week 1 underway in earnest, I’m excited to get started with my weekly series of Redskins articles for the season. The pre-game reality check each week will cover the topics I am most concerned about, excited about, or otherwise interested in leading into each game, and then we’ll recap those with a post-game reality check early in the week after the game.

In the first week, the Redskins are taking on the Cardinals. So, here’s a look at our reality checks and realistic predictions for the first week of the NFL season. Let the reality checks begin!

LANDOVER, MD – AUGUST 24: Running back Chris Thompson #25 and running back Adrian Peterson #26 of the Washington Redskins look on before playing the Denver Broncos during a preseason game at FedExField on August 24, 2018 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

1. Reality is, we don’t know what the team is going to get out of AP (or AD).

We could get a future hall-of-famer who just doesn’t have a lot left in the tank like most thought was the case at the end of last season. Or, we could get the AP we glimpsed against the Broncos in week 3 of the preseason, when he averaged over 5yds per carry. The smart money is on the lower end (my fantasy league has him projected at 64.5 yards on 17+ carries). Any card-carrying Redskins fan has a glimmer of hope somewhere in the back of their mind (or at least their heart) that AP can recapture a bit of his former glory and do better than 3.8 ypc for 65 yards.

I’d be thrilled with 22 carries for 100 yards. I’d be disappointed with anything less than 4ypc.

I predict 20 carries for 78 yards and 1 TD. I expect to be underwhelmed.

2. Reality is, we don’t know who Alex Smith is.

Alex Smith historically is a super-smart, super-professional, super-cautious, super-boring, not-so-super NFL quarterback. The 2017 version of Alex Smith would constitute a significant upgrade at the position over the QB formerly known as Kurt. Which Alex do we get? The one who barely averages more than 1 touchdown per game for his career, or the one who was an MVP candidate last year? This week, are we going to get the quarterback of a Jay Gruden offense that has never won an opening game during his tenure in Washington, or the quarterback who torched New England last year to open the season?

I’d be thrilled with 25-of-32 for 305 yards, 2 TDs, 0 turnovers, 35 rushing yards, and a win. I’d be disappointed by less than 250 yards and anything less than a 2- to-1 TD-to-TO ratio to go with a win.

I predict 22-of-32 for 285 yards, 2 TDs, 1 turnover, 40 rushing yards, and a win. I expect to be satisfied.

ARLINGTON, TX – APRIL 26: A video board displays an image of Da’Ron Payne of Alabama after he was picked #13 overall by the Washington Redskins during the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft at AT&T Stadium on April 26, 2018 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)

3. Reality is, we have no clue what the defense is going to look like.

Are the young guns up front going to be stout against the run or get lost like so many Redskin D-Lines of the past 20 years? Are the safeties going to stay healthy? Can Josh Norman get back to lock-down status? Can Fabian and Quinton hold their own? Will anyone be able to contain David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald? I like our defensive upgrades this offseason. I like the attitude coming out of training camp, but this is our first chance to see if these guys are different than last year’s squad or not.

I’d be thrilled if they kept Johnson under 100 yards rushing, forced at least one turnover, and held the Cards to under 50 percent on third downs on the way to a win. I’ll be disappointed if the defense looks under-prepared or under-manned leading to a loss.

Prediction: I am optimistic that Kerrigan, D.J. Swearinger, and Jonathan Allen lead the way to an encouraging performance where we do relatively contain Johnson and force a turnover and get a win. I expect to remain optimistic.

4. Reality is, we don’t know what we’re going to get out of Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson.

When either of those guys was on the field the last two years (let alone both of them), the Redskins’ passing offense was dynamic. When they were both injured, the Redskins’ offense looked like it was missing it’s two best playmakers…hmmm, wonder why? With neither Reed nor Thompson showing up on the Week 1 injury report, expectations are understandably high. With neither Reed nor Thompson taking a single preseason snap, expectations are understandably muted. See what I did there?

I’d be thrilled with a combined 12 catches for 180 yards, 6 carries for 30 yards, and 2 TDs. I’d be disappointed with under 150 scrimmage yards and no scores.

The reality is, I expect these guys to get 18 touches for 150 yards and 1 TD. I expect to wish I had both on my fantasy team this week.

NEW ORLEANS, LA – NOVEMBER 19: Head coach Jay Gruden of the Washington Redskins ooks on as his team takes on the New Orleans Saints during the first half at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on November 19, 2017 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)

5. Reality is, clock management and turnovers reflect on the head coach.

The Redskins have often played down to their competition throughout Gruden’s tenure, barely squeaking by against teams they should have beaten solidly. The primary causes of these underwhelming performances have been poor game management and sloppy turnovers.

Gruden indicated this week that turnovers have killed the team in home openers. Pundits across all forms of media have been decrying Gruden’s clock management for years, and rightfully so. Until he proves otherwise, it’s fair to say he’s not been great at getting the most out of his team in season openers, and his teams have turned the ball over far too much when it’s really counted.

I’ll be thrilled if there are no clock management gaffes and the Redskins win the turnover battle. I’ll be disappointed if Gruden blows a clock management opportunity or we lose the turnover battle, regardless of the final outcome of the game.

6. Reality is, the Redskins need a W in the worst way this Sunday.

Gruden is 0-4 in season openers. Arizona is expected to be one of 2-3 teams on the Redskins’ schedule this year with losing records by season’s end. Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers loom the next two weeks before a painfully early bye-week. The Redskins start this season with the closest thing to a must-win away game in week 1 I can ever remember a team having. No pressure, guys.

I’d be thrilled if they get the win in a business-like fashion. I’d be disappointed if they lose or look like they were lucky to win.

The reality is, I just lied…a win is a win. I’d only be truly disappointed if they lose (or tie…I have experience with being disappointed with a tie).

Prediction: I expect a sloppy win. I expect to be relieved but nervous. Redskins 20, Cardinals 17.

I am excited to see what the Redskins have in store for us this season…and I’m excited to chronicle the ups and downs with whoever wants to join the conversation with me either in comments below or on Twitter. Check back for more reality checks throughout the season!