The Washington Redskins weren’t the only NFC East team to add a premier running back this offseason.
Throughout the draft process, Saquon Barkley and Derrius Guice were commonly labeled as the No. 1 and No. 2 running backs in the 2018 NFL Draft.
Barkley, at Penn State, flashed his rare athletic talents while lighting up the stat sheets, ending the season as a Heisman contender and a scouting darling, possessing a versatile skill set that has him primed to succeed in the modern NFL.
Guice, a product of the LSU Tigers, is a splash of old-school football, mixed with today’s electric game speed. Guice isn’t the athlete that Barkley is, but he’s no slouch in that regard, and as a pure runner, he’s just as, if not more proficient.
Both players have high expectations. Barkley’s come naturally, as he was drafted No. 2 overall by the New York Giants; they passed over potential long-term stability at quarterback to grab Barkley, clearly expressing that they expect him to start and be a key part of their offense right away.
Guice has a different kind of pressure on his shoulders. Widely viewed a first-round prospect, based on his tape, Guice slid through the second round on the heels of seemingly-baseless character concerns. He eventually landed with the Washington Redskins, where he will set out to prove those who doubted him, and those who passed on him because of his perceived character issues, very, very wrong.
Both running backs have the potential to take the league by storm in their rookie seasons, but how do they compare? How does each back’s situation compliment their skill set, and what can we expect from them in 2018? In football, everything’s a competition. How do Guice and Barkley, now in the NFL, stack up against one another?
Washington Redskins RB Derrius Guice
As explained earlier, Derrius Guice isn’t the otherworldly athlete that Saquon Barkley is, but he himself is far from a subpar athlete. Guice ran a 4.49 40-yard dash at the combine, and he has the athleticism to stop quickly and start again, keep his balance, and contribute as a receiving weapon. His athleticism, much like Barkley, only helps him.
Guice’s size helps him too. At 5-foot-11, 220, Guice fits the mold of a prototypical NFL running back. Guice couples his size with a hungry, relentless running style. He hits the hole and stays on his feet, possessing a rare degree of balance through contact. Simply put, if he doesn’t want to go down, it will be hard to take him down.
Guice has an enticing blend of power and quickness. His quick feet allow him to both impose his will and change direction with jump cuts and take sharp angles. He’s not slow, as some have made the mistake of assuming. And he’s not a bruiser. He has bruiser traits, but he’s a complete running back. He has a vast arsenal of moves to choose from in different situations, and for this reason, he’s hard to hold back.
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Guice is an unproven receiver; He never caught passes in a high volume in college. This is due, in part, to LSU’s run-reliant offensive scheme, as well as their inconsistencies at quarterback over the years. If it’s any consolation, Guice improved steadily over his college career, going from five receptions in his freshman year to 18 and two touchdowns in his junior year.
Guice should ascend right into an offense that can use his skills, both as a runner and receiver. His traits, such as his quickness, focus, and vision, give him upside as the latter, and Alex Smith has been known to use running backs extensively. In 2013, Smith threw over 100 targets to Jamaal Charles, 70 of which registered as catches. In 2016 and 2017, he threw over 50 completions to running backs in general.
Smith may retain his willingness to go deep in the Washington Redskins’ offense. But that doesn’t mean he won’t use his running backs. Smith is a quarterback who implements all his weapons into the attack with no discretion, and Jay Gruden is a head coach who’s known for his creativity, in terms of including running backs in passing schemes. Gruden is a major proponent of Chris Thompson’s success as a receiver, and although Thompson might take a good portion of the passing snaps, Gruden and Smith will make sure both players get their share of opportunities, not just for them, but to keep the defense on its toes. Thompson will help Guice a great deal; He’s the perfect compliment for the LSU running back, something the Giants don’t have for Barkley.
Watching the tape, it’s clear that Derrius Guice is everything the Washington Redskins have lacked as a running back. He has the talent to elevate the offense, and he’s walking into a very good situation. Jay Gruden has said multiple times that he wants to run the ball more, but he’s never had the talent to maintain consistency, in this regard. Derrius Guice provides that. He’ll be the guy on first and second down, and chances are, the Washington Redskins will be in less tough situations on second and third down. This can help Gruden set up creative pass looks to capitalize on favorable field position. He also fits well into the Washington Redskins’ zone rushing scheme; his talent ensures that.
Perhaps more important than all other factors, Derrius Guice is coming into the league with a chip on his shoulder. He attended the NFL Draft, fully expecting to be drafted in Round 1. He wasn’t. He fell past most teams at least twice, until the Washington Redskins snagged him at No. 59. In the NFL, Guice has two main goals: To prove he was worth drafting in the first round based on his talent, and to prove that he shouldn’t have slid based on phantom character concerns.
So far, Guice is doing well proving both points. In 2018, Guice has the potential to be Alex Smith’s “Kareem Hunt” in 2018. His talent is undeniable, and he has the “I want more” mentality that can be very valuable for running backs.
New York Giants RB Saquon Barkley
There’s a reason Saquon Barkley went No. 2 overall. And there is a reason the Giants passed on stability at quarterback for a flashy solution at running back.
Saquon Barkley, first and foremost, offers immense athletic upside. He’s impressively agile for his 5-foot-11, 230 size. His athleticism was very evident at the NFL Combine, where he ran a 4.4 40-yard dash, logged a 41.0 inch vertical jump, and a 4.24 20-yard shuttle time.
Barkley’s value comes from this, as well as his style and his multipurpose ability. Barkley is incredibly elusive, possessing the ability to create for himself with his balance, quickness, and vision. He takes some angles on cuts that shouldn’t be possible, and his ability to change directions will be valuable in the NFL.
Barkley is also an able pass catcher and a proven kick returner. He totaled over 100 receptions and 1,000 yards in his collegiate career, accruing 52 receptions, 632 receiving yards, and three touchdowns in his junior season. In his final season, he also logged 15 kick returns, which went for 426 yards and two touchdowns. Barkley even threw the ball in college, completing two of two attempts for 36 yards and a touchdown. There’s nothing this guy can’t do.
While Barkley’s physical traits bode well for him at the next level, there are some areas where he can improve. Barkley isn’t as decisive a runner as Derrius Guice is, and in the Giants’ offensive line, with holes will close faster. The additions of Nate Solder and Will Hernandez will help, but the former is an aging, relatively inconsistent left tackle, and while Hernandez is a grinder in the running game, the positions to his right consist of players such as Brett Jones, John Jerry, and Ereck Flowers. That’s not a great offensive line, especially on the strong side, and that weakness will force Barkley to create for himself in the backfield more often than he might want to.
It’s also fair to question how Eli Manning will use Barkley. We know that Shurmur will make the most of Barkley’s addition. The team’s new coach is known for utilizing the receiving talents of running backs. Shurmur joined the Minnesota Vikings staff in 2016, and that year, Jerick McKinnon saw his receptions go up from 21 in 2015 to 43 in 2016, and 51 in 2017.
Shurmur will mold his offense around Barkley’s talents, sparing no expense. With his athleticism and all-around talent, Barkley can line up anywhere, serving as a valuable chess piece for the team’s offensive cast. Additionally, both Shurmur and Gruden are expected to employ run-pass options in the coming season. Barkley, in particular, will be particularly versatile and dangerous in this situations. The inefficiencies on the offensive line will only effect him if he’s running behind them. With the option in play, Shurmur can be creative, in terms of how he uses Barkley.
Unlike the Washington Redskins, Barkley doesn’t have a reliable compliment at running back, so the team must be careful that they don’t overextend him. Granted, that will be hard to do with Barkley. But it’s possible for every player, and although the Giants can use Jonathan Stewart as a short-yardage, change of pace back, they lack the cast of contributors as running back that can keep players fresh and ready to run.
Guice and Barkley both have prime opportunities to showcase their talents in places where they are needed, but Barkey’s production will hinge more on the players around him. Eli Manning is aging, and last year, he had a season where he was average enough to lose the starting job. Although he gained it back again, it’s clear that he’s not the same quarterback he once was, and it’s fair to wonder how effectively he’ll be able to use Barkley. Barkley has a high floor, due to his talent. But if Manning can’t consistently give him the ball on passing downs, then his value will go down.
Barkley comes into the NFL with immense pressure on his shoulders. After being drafted No. 2 overall, Barkley will be expected to compete with the best from the very first snap. While these expectations might be tempered for a supremely talented running back who trains every day to make sure he’s ready, his circumstances in New York at least question how well he can mesh with the personnel in year one.
In recent years, first-round running backs have not disappointed by any means. But each year, there have been later round running backs who have nearly matched, or even exceeded first-rounders. In 2016, when Ezekiel Elliot led the NFL in rushing yards, Jordan Howard wasn’t far behind with the Bears. And in 2017, while Leonard Fournette had a nice 1,000-yard season, it was third-round running back Kareem Hunt who led the league in rushing production. Draft status does not determine production. Barkley has the talent to produce right away, but Guice is not far behind in this regard, and his situation might be more favorable.
Who wil have the better season?
Asking someone to choose between Saquon Barkley and Derrius Guice is like asking them to choose between a Ferrari and a Bentley. Both are solid cars. One might be a bit flashier, and have a bit more name recognition, but they’re both going to compete with the best, and the difference might ultimately come down to personal preference.
As a pure runner, Guice is better than Barkley. He’s more physical, more decisive, and he doesn’t get stiff behind the line. He has the balance through contact to stay on his feet and keep churning out yards, and he has the agility to make defenders miss and make plays in space and in traffic. Guice’s mentality also serves him well; At a position as up close and personal as running back, having that electric personality can bode well for a running back and an offense. Guice has that as well.
Barkley’s true value, however, comes from his proven receiving ability and his multipurpose skill set. In this regard, Barkley has the advantage over Guice. He has the athleticism to line up anywhere, and he’s still a very dangerous runner, although not as brutish or quick with his decision making as Guice.
For two running backs who are so close in value, their situations make all the difference. As far as scheme, Guice and Barkley will see similarities between Shurmur and Gruden. With the Washington Redskins, Guice is coming into an offense with a quarterback and a coach who both put tremendous value in running backs as receiving options. Shurmur, hailing from Andy Reid’s west coast coaching tree, should share this trait.
When looking at personnel, the two running backs’ situations begin to differentiate. Much of Saquon Barkley’s production will depend on those around him. Can Eli Manning rebound after a season in which he lost both his job, for a time, and his confidence? Is the offensive line up to par after a busy offseason? Is the receiving core good enough?
The Washington Redskins’ offense, too, has questions. But it also has valuable security. Jay Gruden is entering his fifth season, and he should be more than comfortable with the team he has. Alex Smith is not only a proven quarterback, but he’s always been at his best with good running backs to compliment his skills; Guice and Smith should trade off in this regard, much like we saw Smith do the same with Kareem Hunt. Guice also has a more stable offensive line to run behind, and with his decisive running style, he can better make use of the holes that open and close quickly in the NFL.
Next: From chaos to contention, Redskins ready for 2018
It’s a very close battle, but cases can be made for both Guice and Barkley. On the surface, Barkley’s talent, and his notoriety as the No. 2 overall pick, make him a perceived lock to be the best running back in this rookie class. But, in light of his slide into the second round, Derrius Guice has been unforgivably underrated. His situation is more favorable than Barkley’s. That could make the difference in an NFC East that grows more competitive by the minute.