NFL record predictions for the 2018 regular season

Yes, I hate your favorite team.

Before long, the 2018 NFL regular season will be upon us, and with it, the end to seemingly endless speculation. In a league ridden with parity and shrinking margins for error, team records are becoming increasingly hard to predict. No one expected the Eagles to win the Super Bowl last year. No one expected teams like the Saints and the Rams to be in the hunt.

I get it. It’s the offseason. Everyone in the NFL is going to the playoffs. Optimism is high. But to compile a set of predictions where wins are equal to losses, tough decisions have to be made. I write paragraphs for a reason. These records do not come from nowhere.

Over recent years, it has been made clear that the chaotic nature of the NFL holds preseason predictions in low regard. Anyone can win, in any year. The unpredictability of the NFL is what makes it so enticing.

The Eagles shocked the world last year. Who will be the ones to follow in their footsteps? At this point, there are no wrong answers. If you see a prediction that seems unreasonable, just remember: Anything can happen once the coin is flipped. It’s not as simple as heads or tails.

Buffalo Bills

I like the Buffalo Bills. I really do. The way Bills Mafia reacted to the team’s punching of the playoff ticket last year was priceless. They came in waves to donate to Andy Dalton’s charity after Dalton and the Bengals eliminated the Ravens, effectively cementing the Bills’ standing in the playoff bracket.

This is an NFL fanbase that was starved of the playoffs, and for a fleeting seven days, they got what they wished for. It’s good that they went to the playoffs last year, because an immediate return to the big dance doesn’t seem to be in the cards.

The Bills have bright spots on their roster, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. The linebacking core, although previously weak, has up and coming players like Matt Milano and 2018 first-round pick Tremaine Edmunds. The latter, who is only 19 years old, has game-changing potential in that defense, and he should only get better as the year progresses.

In the secondary, the Bills are far from short-staffed; At cornerback returns the illustrious 2017 first-round pick Tre’Davious White, a player who locked down opponents week in and week out in his rookie season. He’s joined by Vontae Davis on the opposite end, the playmaking safety duo of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer on the back end, and versatile fifth-round rookie Siran Neal.

In a concerted effort to further improve their defense, the Bills made a point to bolster the trenches this offseason. In addition to players like Kyle Williams, Jerry Hughes, Adolphus Washington, and Shaq Lawson, the team also signed veteran defensive tackle Star Lotulelei, disruptive edge rusher Trent Murphy, and third-round rookie Harrison Phillips, who provides valuable depth in a strong defensive line rotation.

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The Bills’ defense is nothing to scoff at, and while there are some moving pieces, those pieces should be able to mesh into an above-average unit this season. Still, the large number of aging veterans is concerning, and the sad state of the Bills’ offense does not remedy that concern.

On offense, the Bills have very few proven players to incite confidence. Running back LeSean McCoy immediately comes to mind as a potential saving grace, but he turns 30 years old later this year, and traditionally, running backs with his workload see their production decrease after that point. Furthermore, his blockers are far from solid. The offensive line lost two key veterans, including stout run blocker Richie Incognito, after an already inconsistent 2017 campaign, while failing to add any notable players in the offseason. Teams build up from the trenches, and on offense, the Bills’ trench situation is very much in disarray. I mean, they’re starting Russell Bodine at center. Come on.

McCoy doesn’t have much backup at skill positions, either. Those positions are mired with players limited in some way, shape, or form. Kelvin Benjamin is too slow, and it’s not known if he’s a good fit for Brian Daboll’s new offense. Zay Jones has some developing to do after an up-and-down rookie year. Charles Clay is aging, although he might be the best piece of security on the Bills’ offense, aside from McCoy.

It also doesn’t help that the Bills’ quarterback situation is one of the most uncertain in the entire NFL. Josh Allen should start at some point in his rookie season, but he’s far from pro ready. He has a cannon for an arm, but he’ll need time to learn. With A.J. McCarron serving as the only player standing between Allen and the field, time might not be an attainable luxury, especially for a top ten pick in the NFL Draft.

Allen could be thrown into the fire too early, and this will not only stunt his development, but also contribute to the Bills’ fall in 2018. If the Bills can’t score and sustain drives, then their defense will wear themselves out. And the Bills will end up on the losing end of too many wars of attrition. They’re a team with some promise in important areas, but far too many questions linger to suggest that this team will be anywhere near a second NFL playoff berth in 2018.

Buffalo Bills record projection: 4-12

Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills will battle for fourth place in the AFC East. It will be a fairly contested battle. But in the end, the Dolphins will edge out the Bills by a game.

Let’s talk about the good first. Because there is some good to be spoken of, when regarding the Miami Dolphins. Their running back situation has become considerably clearer this offseason; Kenyan Drake appears to be the favorite in the room, and Frank Gore and Day 3 pick Kalen Ballage will provide depth behind him. Drake has upside with good size and exceptional speed and quickness. He showed immense promise following the Dolphins’ trade of Jay Ajayi last year, and if he can get some help from a renovated offensive line, he could be a valuable weapon for Miami.

On the defensive side of the ball, the most promising aspect of Adam Gase’s 2018 squad has to be the secondary. There are unknowns swirling around the unit, but it undoubtedly has the potential to be elite, especially with the acquisition of Alabama standout Minkah Fitzpatrick in the 2018 NFL Draft.

With Fitzpatrick coming in to provide versatility and playmaking ability, as well as a tireless leader’s presence in the locker room, returning pieces such as Xavien Howard, Tony Lippett, Bobby McCain, Cordrea Tankersley, and Reshad Jones should be able to mesh and form a formidable position group. Cornell Armstrong provides upside and depth in the sixth round as well.

Miami Dolphins

Aside from the secondary and the promise at running back, however, there are far more questions than answers surrounding the 2018 Miami Dolphins, none of those questions of greater magnitude than the health of Ryan Tannehill. The embattled franchise quarterback of the Dolphins received a tepid vote of confidence from the team when they neglected to draft a quarterback in the 2018 NFL Draft.

Tannehill has always been serviceable, and occasionally, he’s shown flashes of some great quarterback, locked away inside himself. But after his season-ending knee injury suffered in the offseason of 2017, there’s no guarantee he’ll come back as the same player, and rolling into 2018 with Brock Osweiler and Bryce Petty as backups doesn’t sound like a safe strategy. David Fales has the underdog hype building around him, but if he can’t elevate himself in this quarterback room, then he’s not doing it anywhere.

It won’t help whoever ends up playing snaps at quarterback that the rest of the offense is somewhat lacking in proven talent. Yes, the running back rotation has improved, but the receiving core is still underwhelming, even after the acquisitions of an aging, ex-Patriot Danny Amendola and former Chiefs’ slot receiver Albert Wilson. 2015 first-round pick DeVante Parker has yet to find consistency in his game, and Jakeem Grant, while a speedy receiver, is far from the dominant deep threat that Tyreek Hill is. Couple these players with a solid, yet overpaid Kenny Stills, and you get a receiving core that’s decent at best, while lacking the players to elevate a quarterback room in need of that kind of support.

At tight end, it isn’t much better. In time, it could be, as Mike Gesicki has the athleticism to develop into a premier receiving threat. But as it stands, there are very few proven options at the position, which will force Gesicki to be the man from the get-go. He’ll help as a safety blanket for the quarterback, but he’s not a polished player just yet, and throwing him into the fire could be detrimental.

In the trenches, on both sides of the ball, the Miami Dolphins leave a lot to be desired. They retooled their offensive line this offseason, adding players like Josh Sitton and Daniel Kilgore to man the interior. At the same time, however, they lost stout center Mike Pouncey, who took his talents to the Chargers of Los Angeles. With Laremy Tunsil coming off a very underwhelming sophomore season at left guard, and with Zach Sterup manning the right tackle slot for the time being, the Dolphins could certainly use upgrades on both ends.

Defensively, it’s the same deal. The Dolphins lost their only elite interior run defender in Ndamukong Suh, and while they added Akeem Spence, and expect Jordan Phillips and Davon Godchaux to improve in 2018, the loss of a player of Suh’s caliber will linger, without a doubt. Robert Quinn and Cameron Wake should help sullen the blow, but two players do not make a unit. Couple this with the uncertainty surrounding the team’s linebacking core, and it’s clear that any success would be a welcome surprise, but not the expectation.

Miami Dolphins record projection: 3-13

New England Patriots

At some point, Tom Brady will submit to the relentless pull of time. But with the roster he has around him this year, it’s hard to see the Patriots taking any steps back. The Evil Empire will reign for another year.

An argument can be made against the Patriots. But it’s the same argument that’s concocted every year. And it hasn’t yet come to fruition.

The Patriots experienced a sizable amount of turnover in the offseason of 2018. They lost defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, who helped turn a defense particularly avoid of talent into a threatening unit. They also lost key players on both sides of the ball, from Dion Lewis and Danny Amendola to Johnson Bademosi and Malcolm Butler.

The hopeful part of us all says that these losses will be too much to overcome, and that the Patriots will fall victim to a combination of factors, from the aging of Tom Brady to the thinning of a championship roster. But the Patriots have turnover every year; it’s how they operate. And every year, Bill Belichick brings them back to the playoffs.

It’s worth noting that Matt Patricia was with the Patriots for thirteen years, since the 2004 season. But the team has confidence in his assumed successor, Brian Flores. They like to hire from within, and so far, that strategy hasn’t failed them.

Additionally, the Patriots, for every contributor that they lost, gained back talented players who should help sullen the blow of said departures. In the NFL Draft, they added Isaiah Wynn and Sony Michel, an offensive tackle-running back duo from Georgia that combined to form one of college football history’s great rushing attacks. Wynn should seamlessly fill in for veteran Nate Solder, and at this stage in Solder’s career, Wynn might be a better player. Meanwhile, Michel is an electric runner who can feast in Josh McDaniel’s versatile offense.

The Patriots also filled the biggest need on offense, Bill Belichick’s prototypical receiver, and grabbed Miami’s Braxton Berrios, who should figure to be a key figure in the team’s extensive receiver rotation, which houses players like Julian Edelman, Jordan Matthews, Kenny Britt, Malcolm Mitchell, Phillip Dorsett, and Cordarrelle Patterson.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Patriots were apt to spend a sizable amount of draft capital on their linebacking corps, bringing in value deals like Christian Sam and Ja’whaun Bentley. Duke Dawson should also provide solid play at cornerback, and the McCourty twins, reunited for the first time since college, should provide veteran stability in that area.

Yes, the Patriots’ roster looks very different, relative to last year. But change won’t been enough to stop Tom Brady. It never has been. The only thing stopping Brady is time. And judging from his MVP performance last year, Brady still has a bit of time left.

After his final MVP season, Peyton Manning still had two (well, one and a half) years left. Brady shouldn’t be any different, and after factoring in his dietary habits and the lengths he takes to keep himself in shape, he could arguably last longer. But we’re not talking about the future. We’re talking about 2018. And in 2018, the Patriots will once again be at the top of the AFC East. However, one division rival will give them new trouble…

New England Patriots record projection: 11-5

New York Jets

The New York Giants can make some noise last year. After years of searching, and years of disappointment, accentuated by the names of Mark Sanchez, Bruce Petty, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Christian Hackenberg, the New York Jets appear to have finally found their franchise quarterback in Sam Darnold.

Darnold is a quarterback with a laser arm who seems to be best under pressure, but his mechanics are a bit sloppy, and he could get off to a slow start in 2018. That shouldn’t matter, however, because the Jets competed for much of last year with Josh McCown at the helm.

Granted, McCown played his best season of football in 2017. But this team was good enough to help him succeed, and under Todd Bowles’ coaching, a Jets team that was predicted by many to go 0-16 before the 2017 season instead went 5-11. That may not sound like an accomplishment, but before a four-game losing streak to cap off the season, the Jets were 5-7, and fighting to steal the Bills’ wild card spot.

The Jets surprised a lot of people in 2017, and in 2018, they’ll have the opportunity to do the same thing. They were very active this offseason, in both free agency and the NFL Draft. In free agency, they bolstered their defense, signing players such as Trumaine Johnson, Kevin Minter, and Avery Williamson. Williamson’s signing, in particular, flew under the radar; He should immediately elevate a subpar linebacking corps, and Trumaine Johnson, joining a secondary with the likes of Morris Claiborne, Jamal Adams, and Marcus Maye, should be able to carry on his ballhawking ways, and a much-improved front seven should help him accomplish this.

On the offense, the Jets continued to make the most of their ample cap space, signing Spencer Long, Travis Swanson, and Antonio Garcia to strengthen the interior of their offensive line. The team’s skill position signings were underwhelming. Isaiah Crowell is limited running back, as is Thomas Rawls. Terrelle Pryor is coming off a disappointing season in D.C., and Clive Walford has never been more than a depth piece. But in the draft, they managed to pair a quarterback with Jeremy Bates who can elevate those players: Sam Darnold.

Darnold was the headliner of the New York Jets’ draft class, and with good reason. He has some development left to go, but his arm and game-changing ability were both evident in his time at USC. The Jets could do much worse than giving him Jermaine Kearse, Robby Anderson, Quincy Enunwa, and 2018 rookie Chris Herndon to throw the ball to, and with a restructured offensive line, he should be able to stay off the turf and help his team compete.

Darnold wasn’t the only impressive player in the Jets’ draft class, either. Mike Maccagnan managed to snag two high-upside defensive linemen in Nathan Shepherd and Folorunso Fatukasi. Those of you who read my pre-draft content know how high I was on both players. They will immediately make the Jets’ rotation, with Leonard Williams, Steve McClendon, and Mike Pennel, one of the stronger units in the league. In the trenches, the Jets are looking better and better, especially on the defensive side of the ball. They may have lost Sheldon Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson, but they have the potential to pick up close to where they left off.

New York Jets record projection: 8-8

Baltimore Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens are a good team. Their defense is returning a lot of key talent, and they only improved in the NFL Draft. But this team, as good as it is, has been dragged down by Joe Flacco for years. Yes, they drafted Lamar Jackson, but that doesn’t mean he’ll start right away. You don’t simply bench a $22 million quarterback. Something tells me the Ravens will drag their feet moving on from Flacco, just like they dragged their feet drafting his successor.

The funny thing is that the Ravens are, at least by most accounts, a team improved from last year. The Ravens added wide receivers Michael Crabtree and John Brown in free agency, and while both have serious questions surrounding their acquisition (Crabtree is aging, Brown needs to stay healthy), the Ravens needed a change of pace at that position.

The Ravens also boosted the offense in the NFL Draft, grabbing tight ends Hayden Hurst and Mark Andrews, offensive linemen Orlando Brown and Bradley Bozeman. The receivers they grabbed, particularly Jordan Lasley, are underwhelming, but the team made up for it by drafting Lamar Jackson as their quarterback of the future at the tail end of Round 1.

Take this revamped offense, with Alex Collins returning as one of the underrated running backs in the NFL, and combine it with the Ravens’ defense, which has somehow maintained its slot among the league’s top units for years, and you have a playoff contender. A team that can undoubtedly win the AFC North.

But there’s one problem.

Who will the quarterback be?

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With better weapons, Joe Flacco could bring the Ravens to the big dance. He’s done it before. But Flacco needs a specific caliber of player to make this work. He’s not a quarterback who elevates those around him. He doesn’t have any dominant traits. His Super Bowl run was impressive, but it’s been a decade. In recent years, we’ve more often seen Flacco take playoff rosters and nudge them out of contention. Last year, in particular, was his worst campaign yet.

Joe Flacco has never been an elite quarterback. With an impressive supporting cast, he could be good enough to win. But this Ravens’ supporting cast, as new as it is, isn’t the kind that can elevate Flacco. It’s good. Much better than last year. But is it good enough? At this point, I’m inclined to say no.

The Ravens’ loyalty to Flacco, the worst value deal in the NFL, has been undying over the years. And even though they traded up to grab Lamar Jackson in Round 1, reason suggests that they won’t simply hand Jackson the offense. They’ll enter the season with Flacco as the starter. And unless Flacco plays absolutely atrocious football, they’ll keep him in, to ensure that they receive dividends from his inflated salary.

The quarterback situation, until Jackson is handed the starting job for good, will hinder this franchise, and keep them from taking the next step. John Harbaugh can keep the Ravens in contention, as can their defense, with promising young players like Marlon Humphrey, Tim Williams, and Zach Sieler. But Flacco will simply hold them back.

Baltimore Ravens record projection: 9-7

Cincinnati Bengals

Marvin Lewis somehow finds ways to keep the Cincinnati Bengals in playoff contention. If nothing else, this should be viewed as an accomplishment. In 2018, however, Lewis may only find it harder to do so. The Bengals are a good distance away from actually competing.

I’m higher on the Bengals than most. If they can reach their potential, then they could win the AFC North. But you can say these kinds of things about any team in the NFL, and the reality is that the Bengals have proven too little to garner reasonable confidence as a playoff contender.

Anything can happen, but the Bengals’ offense and defense both have shortcomings that must be addressed. Andy Dalton has yet to prove himself as “they guy”, and as he grows older, it’s looking as if he never will. And he won’t get much help from the rest of his offense. The Bengals’ running game will fall onto the shoulders of Joe Mixon, who underwhelmed in his rookie season. The team’s cast of receiving threats was weakened by injuries, and players like Tyler Eifert and John Ross will need to prove they can stay healthy. This could be a tall task for them.

The Bengals’ offensive line improved over the offseason, adding players such as Cordy Glenn and Billy Price to the starting lineup. Despite these additions, the unit is still thin, and even one injury could throw chemistry awry. On defense, it’s the same. The Bengals have some good pieces. But the depth on this team is seriously lacking, and in the NFL, that’s all that matters if a team wishes to compete for sixteen games.

Cincinnati Bengals record projection: 6-10

Cleveland Browns

Don’t look now, but the Cleveland Browns are legitimately building a good team.

Of course, no team can truly contend without good coaching, and Hue Jackson has drawn plenty of ire over his first two years with the Browns. Much of that is deserved. The former offensive coordinator has been stubborn with his style, refusing to bend to the skill set of his quarterback. Hopefully, with Baker Mayfield, that will change. Jackson has had success before, albeit as a coordinator. After amassing a 1-31 record in his fist two seasons, he has plenty to prove. Perhaps the most of all.

Adding another personality like Todd Haley to the coaching staff doesn’t seem like a smart move, but coaching aside, the Browns are building a roster that could very well contend in the near future. The offense has the necessary skill players to churn out yards, the offensive line has the depth to withstand attrition, even without Joe Thomas, and Baker Mayfield has the ability to produce, even when all the odds are against him.

Defensively, the Browns’ front seven is secretly very good, and perhaps one of the better position groups in the NFL. Seeing the Browns lining up Myles Garrett, Larry Ogunjobi, Caleb Brantley, and Emmanuel Ogbah should be a welcome sight for fans, and  behind those players, Trevon Coley, Jamie Meder, Trenton Thompson, Carl Nassib, Genard Avery, and Nate Orchard provide immense depth and rotational value.

The Browns have Jamie Collins and Joe Schobert patrolling the middle. Both are talented players who succeed in different ways. Collins relies a bit too much on natural talents, but those talents alone provide value to a young, ascending defense, and Schubert, who made the Pro Bowl last year, is an incredibly nuanced player who uses his all-around solid skill set to make an impact. Combine these two with Christian Kirksey, and you have a fairly solid second level.

The Browns could use some work in the secondary, but No. 4 overall pick Denzel Ward helps immediately at cornerback, and the team made a point out of infusing depth there this offseason. The word “success” hasn’t often been snynonymous with “Browns” in recent years. But times are changing. And while it might take a coaching change to get the team over the hump, the Browns can get to 9-7 with all the talent they have.

Cleveland Browns record projection: 9-7

Pittsburgh Steelers

It doesn’t take much for titans to fall.

The last time the Pittsburgh Steelers had a losing season, it was in 2003. They went 6-10. Tommy Maddox, who had won Comeback Player of the Year just a season before, threw for 3,414 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. It was clear that the veteran was past his peak, and so in 2004, the Pittsburgh Steelers drafted his replacement.

Ben Roethlisberger.

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Fast forward to 2018. After a long, fruitful career, Ben Roethlisberger’s consistency appears to have taken a hit, and the quarterback himself mulled over retirement after the 2017 season. He eventually chose to return, but that didn’t stop the Steelers from drafting Oklahoma State quarterback Mason Rudolph in Round 3.

The two situations aren’t entirely alike. But the writing seems to be on the wall. Big Ben isn’t in the shape he used to be in. And while he has vehemently denied that his time is fading, even going so far as to spite the Steelers’ choice of Rudolph, it is clear that he is entering the twilight of his career. Roethlisberger has always cocksure about his skills, and for a long time, he’s been able to back it up. But with the Steelers’ selection of Rudolph, even with Joshua Dobbs in the wings, it’s clear that they view quarterback as a fairly immediate need.

The addition of Rudolph can do one of two things: It can motivate Roethlisberger and help him find a new peak late in his career, like it did for Alex Smith in Kansas City last year. Or it can only put more pressure on Roethlisberger’s shoulders, forcing him into a shell on the field, and creating a toxic environment in the locker room. Judging by the way Roethlisberger has reacted, I’d put money on the latter.

Aside from quarterback, there are other questions to be addressed on the Steelers’ roster, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Skilled linebacker Ryan Shazier will, unfortunately, be out for the 2018 season while recovering from a severe neck injury. In his place, the Steelers have Jon Bostic, a depth piece for much of his career. Vince Williams is a player of the same caliber. The linebacking unit obviously wasn’t the same without Shazier, and that void will be tough to fill in 2018.

The questions on the defensive side of the ball extend to the secondary for the Steelers. Artie Burns is a gifted player, but his inconsistencies make him dangerous to rely on in a young, unpredictable secondary. He will be the No.1 cornerback, due to his talent, but he alone will not be able to account for the deficiencies behind him. Joe Haden provides a similar impact, but he’s older. He’s good, not great, and nearing 30 years old, with his injury history, Haden’s play quality could soon begin its inevitable decline.

There is value in having two decent starters at cornerback, and the Steelers have commodities there. They also have a defensive swiss army knife in Mike Hilton, who broke out onto the scene last year with solid play. But behind him, there are questions. Cameron Sutton will be under pressure to improve in his second season.

At safety, Morgan Burnett provides security, but the position is very much in turmoil behind him. Sean Davis has yet to acquire consistency after two years, and Terrell Edmunds, the team’s first-round pick in 2018, isn’t a very natural cover man. It will take time for him to fit into the role Pittsburgh will use him for. And if he’s thrown into the fire too early, it could be detrimental to his development. The team’s defensive line rotation is solid, but inconsistencies in the lower two levels may hurt the unit as a whole.

We know the Steelers’ offense has top-end talent in players like Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown. But with growing uncertainty at quarterback, and a number of holes on the defense that could only get bigger as the season goes on, there’s a chance we could see a down season from Mike Tomlin’s group. These kinds of seasons often come without warning. And they always come with change.

Pittsburgh Steelers record projection: 7-9

Houston Texans

It’s hard to find a way to root against the Houston Texans this year.

Two years ago, the Texans were a team good enough to make the playoffs with Brock Osweiler as their starting quarterback. Their roster was strong enough last year, had they not be subject to a number of major injuries.

Make no mistake; The Houston Texans, provided they can stay healthy, will come right back and compete in the AFC South. Deshaun Watson was the best quarterback in the division when he was on the field, and it wasn’t all beginner’s luck. Watson has the pocket evasion skills to keep the play alive and the arm to give Deandre Hopkins his opportunities to shine. With deep threats such as Will Fuller and Keke Coutee joining the fray again, Watson should only improve.

Defensively, the Texans haven’t changed enough to warrant a bet against them. They still have a very solid core, comprised of J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney, Whitney Mercilus, Bernardrick McKinney, Zach Cunningham, Johnathan Joseph, and Tyrann Mathieu. Adding Justin Reid to the secondary will help early this year, and while this team could improve its depth, the Texans have more than enough star power to win and pull away from the pack. They just need to stay healthy.

Houston Texans record projection: 11-5

Indianapolis Colts

It’s easy to like what the Indianapolis Colts did this offseason. It’s also very hard to expect them to sustain any kind of success in 2018.

Even if Andrew Luck, this Colts’ squad still lacks proven talent. There are so many unknowns that, when it’s all said and done, the Colts could end up surprising a lot of people, especially in an AFC South division that seems to undercut expectations every year.

The Colts’ offensive line undoubtedly improved with the acquisitions of Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith, but even now, it’s not an upper-tier unit. Ryan Kelly has to prove he can stay healthy as their starting center, and their projected starters, at left and right tackle, are Anthony Castonzo and Denzelle Good. Catsonzo is a veteran who has proven himself to be an above-average starter as a blindside blocker. But he’s aging, and right tackle is a much larger question mark for Indianapolis.

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It doesn’t help that the team’s offensive cast is rather short-staffed, in terms of game-changing talent. At running back, the starting job will come down to either Jordan Wilkins, Marlon Mack, or Christine Michael, and at wide receiver, the only proven assets are T.Y. Hilton and Ryan Grant, who proved himself to be nothing more than a reliable utility receiver with the Washington Redskins. At tight end, the Colts are banking on Jack Doyle to improve with more reps, simply continuing the trend of unpredictability. And none of it matters if Andrew Luck can’t get healthy and stay healthy.

Much of the same can be said for the defense. It was bad last year, and although steps were made in the right direction in the offseason of 2018, there are still many questions that can only be answered on the field. The defensive line rotation is particularly thin, and although they added a mass influx of talent on the edge, with players like Jabaal Sheard, Kemoko Turay, John Simon, and Tyquan Lewis all joining the fray, they won’t be able to collapse the pocket with their interior personnel, and stopping the run in a division with Leonard Fournette, Derrick Henry, Dion Lewis, and Lamar Miller might prove to be a tall task.

In the linebacking core and the secondary, the Colts only have more uncertainty. At linebacker, their most proven piece is Najee Goode, a player who totaled 51 tackles in five years as a special teamer with the Eagles. And in the secondary, their best three players are Nate Hairston, Quincy Wilson, and Malik Hooker. Hairston is an undrafted free agent who was forced into action last year, and the latter two names both lost time to injury in 2017, and have a lot to live up to in 2018. The Colts’ defense is underwhelming at every level, despite an effective offseason. They’ve started the rebuild. But it will take more than one year.

Every year, there are question marks that end up blossoming into key contributors. But as a roster, the Colts have too many question marks to be trusted to contend, and no question mark is bigger than Andrew Luck. Luck hasn’t thrown a pass for almost two years, and with this talent cast, it’s unlikely he can come back in and pick up where he left off. Frank Reich is a good coach. But he will need a redshirt year with this squad.

Indianapolis Colts record projection: 4-12

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars’ defense nearly single-handedly brought the team to the Super Bowl last year, and with the additions of Taven Bryan, Ronnie Harrison, and Quenton Meeks, the unit only got better.

Doug Marrone’s squad exceed expectations in 2017’s NFL, and so it only makes sense that, when the expectations begin to mont in 2018, the Jaguars will undercut them at a modest 10-6. There’s a fairly simple reason for this choice. Yes, the Jaguars have a very, very good defense. But they also have Blake Bortles.

Bortles is an average quarterback. He can win games if everything goes right. But in the NFL, having an average quarterback as your starting quarterback is bad. The Bills witnessed this last year with Tyrod Taylor. And the Vikings knew this was what they had in Case Keenum.

Jacksonville chose to bet on Bortles in 2018, and while it’s impossible not to love the man’s attitude, it’s fair to say that he’s a known quantity at this point. He’s an inconsistent signal caller with a penchant for making bad decisions. No matter how good the Jaguars’ defense is, Blake Bortles will keep them from winning some games. They’ll make the playoffs. But with Bortles at the helm, there’s only so much they can do.

Jacksonville Jaguars record projection: 10-6

Tennessee Titans

The Tennessee Titans are just weird, man.

Every year, expectations seem to skyrocket with this team. Every year is “the year”. And while I won’t deny the the Titans have a lot of talent, especially on the defensive side of the ball, this is not the Titans’ year to win the AFC South. Why? For a culmination of reasons.

First and foremost, Mike Vrabel is in his first year as the Titans’ head coach. First-year head coaches do have the advantage of unpredictability on their side. In recent years, we’ve seen Sean McVay and Adam Gase take advantage of this.

But Vrabel is not that innovative offensive mind. He’s a defensive coach, and although he’ll likely fare better than Mike Mularkey, an offensive coach did, it remains to be seen how Vrabel will help Marcus Mariota rebound from a major regression in 2017. New offensive coordinator Matt Lafleur will likely be a key player, in this sense, but after seeing Mariota’s performance in 2017, and how little his receiving core improved in 2018, there’s reason to be hesitant about the narrative that Mariota will suddenly get better. Corey Davis should improve in his sophomore season, but Delaney Walker is only growing older, and he’s due for a regression.

The impact of time goes both ways. And although Dion Lewis should add some dynamic ability to the offense alongside workhorse back Derrick Henry, the Titans’ offense is very much an unknown quantity at this point, and in the AFC South, it’s difficult to determine how well they can perform.

This brings me to my second point: The Houston Texans are a major threat to experience a resurgence. Deshaun Watson was one of the most electric playmakers in the league when he was healthy, and that Texans’ defense, although somewhat thin, has the star power needed to make a run at the AFC South crown. Combine that with the Jacksonville Jaguars, who will surely be a threat again, and the Titans have a lot of competition. The Titans will win some good games. And, just as the Titans always do, they will lose games they have no business losing. That’s a trend Vrabel will need a couple years to fix.

In the end, an above-average team will finish accordingly: Just above average. With more security in their receiving core and on the interior offensive line, the Titans could surely enter the playoff conversation. But after last year’s occurrences, and when factoring in how tough the AFC South could be, the Titans have an uphill battle coming their way.

Tennessee Titans record projection: 9-7

Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos are the definition of a middle-of-the-road team. They don’t have a lot of explosive talent on offense, but they do have plenty of serviceable players who can keep the unit afloat. On defense, there are some areas that are legitimately close to the best in the league, such as their edge rushing core with Von Miller, Bradley Chubb, Shaquil Barrett, and Shane Ray. But there are also glaring weaknesses, such as the team’s interior defensive line, and the depth of their cornerback room, that makes their defense less than elite.

Much of what the Broncos do this season will come down to Case Keenum, and how he directs the offense. The running game doesn’t look like it will improve. Royce Freeman was a productive college runner, but his slow running style isn’t a fit for the NFL game, and as bright as Devontae Booker’s flashes have been, he’s yet to piece together a semblance of consistency in his NFL career. The Broncos’ offensive line is also far from reliable; The ineffectiveness in the trenches will hurt the unit on a regular basis.

Case Keenum can replicate his production last year in Denver’s offense, if he truly is what Denver paid him to be. The receiving core is especially stocked with weapons, including veterans Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, as well as rookies DaeSean Hamilton and Courtland Sutton.

It’s not quite the Vikings’ offensive cast, but Keenum has tools to work with. The problem will be how he deals with pressure, because in the AFC West, facing off against players like Khalil Mack Justin Houston, and Melvin Ingram, the Broncos’ offensive line is bound to let someone through. Garrett Bolles could improve in his sophomore season, but it’s hard to ask the Broncos’ offensive line to suddenly become a wall, when all last year, they showed that they had improved little from the previous season.

Keenum will face pressure in 2018. And in the face of pressure, Keenum crumbles. That was how the Eagles pummeled him into submission in the NFC Championship game. And that was why the Vikings chose to let him go. Keenum won’t shock the NFL like he did in 2017. Instead, he’ll likely flame out, leaving to find another opportunity in 2019, and leaving Vance Joseph without a job. Keenum is easy to root for. But the circumstances in Denver do not bode well for him. The Broncos are a middle-of-the-road team. Those kinds of teams won’t fare too well in an increasingly competitive NFL.

Denver Broncos record projection: 5-11

Kansas City Chiefs

The success of the Kansas City Chiefs hinges upon how well their new defense performs. The offense appears ready to pick up where it left off last season. Patrick Mahomes will be fresh off a full NFL offseason as the team’s starter after the Chiefs traded Alex Smith to the Washington Redskins. Kareem Hunt should keep up his production behind a solid offensive line, and Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill will be valuable, dynamic weapons for Mahomes moving forward, and free agent acquisition Sammy Watkins provides playmaking ability that the Chiefs haven’t had in their receiving core, outside of Tyreek Hill.

The loss of Matt Nagy might have some effect on the offense’s performance as a unit, but the talent is there for Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy to work with. If anything will be the problem with this Chiefs’ team, it will be their defense. Brett Veach blew up the team’s defensive core, trading Marcus Peters to the Rams while letting veterans Derrick Johnson and Tamba Hali test the market.

The Chiefs’ secondary, in particular, will look much different in 2018. Kendall Fuller, David Amerson, and Steven Nelson are likely to be the day one starters at cornerback, while the two safety spots could come down to veteran Eric Berry and rookie Armani Watts. Watts is a high-upside prospect, in terms of athleticism, but in college, he struggled with consistency and lacking instincts. Thus, it’s hard to tell how he’ll fare as a starter, if he’s forced into the fire right away.

Fuller should provide the Chiefs wth quality play wherever they use him; He played primarily in the slot last year with the Washington Redskins, registering as one of only five elite cornerbacks in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus. He’ll hope to fill the void left by Marcus Peters, and although he has big shoes to fill, his position is not one that should incite much worry. But those around him are particularly unproven,, and it’s likely that this new secondary will have some early struggles.

The front seven of the Chiefs’ defense is decent, but it too has new pieces that will need to mesh. Reggie Ragland is a surefire starter at linebacker, but Anthony Hitchens was never more than a depth player with the Cowboys. He’ll be asked to take on a bigger role in Kansas City, and that could backfire. The Chiefs also have rookie Dorian O’Daniel, who provides depth, but even he may struggle if pressed into action too soon. The team’s defensive line rotation is strong, but it’s not dominant, like the Eagles’.

If the Chiefs’ new defense coalesces and starts at a high level, then there’s a chance the Chiefs could end up stalking the AFC West from the Chargers. They have the best chance to do it , especially with their offense. Right now, the Chargers are the better, more secure team. But the Chiefs have a chance to climb the ladder before long.

Kansas City Chiefs record projection: 9-7

Los Angeles ChargersNFL

Were it not for a massive wave of injuries, similar to that which the Washington Redskins’ suffered, the Los Angeles Chargers could have easily won the AFC West in 2017. They nearly did so anyway.

The Chargers are a talented NFL team, on both sides of the ball, and in 2017, they showed resilience under Anthony Lynn. In 2018, the Chargers aren’t likely to get similar bad luck with injuries, and after an offseason which saw them add Derwin James to an already stacked defense, the Chargers are gearing up to compete.

There isn’t a glaring weakness on the Chargers roster. Their depth in the trenches is superb on both sides of the ball, and their offensive line is particularly solid, especially if Forrest Lamp gets back to one-hundred percent. The defense is packed full with playmakers, incluindg Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram, Jatavis Brown, Casey Hayward, Desmond King, and Jason Verrett.

This roster is shaping up to be one of the strongest Phillip Rivers has had, and in a year where the Chiefs, Raiders, and Broncos are all facing changes that could hinder their production, the Chargers could be the team to break away in the AFC West.

Los Angeles Chargers record projection: 11-5

Oakland Raiders

In the first offseason of the Jon Gruden era, part two, the Oakland Raiders made too many suspect  roster moves. Jon Gruden seems to be assembling a new “Over the Hill gang”. But it’s not going to work this time.

Things can change quickly in the NFL. Just two years ago, the Oakland Raiders, led by Jack Del Rio, were on top of the AFC West, sporting a 12-4 record in the NFL playoffs. Now, coming off a disappointing 6-10 season, the Raiders have made a change at their head coaching position, craving nostalgia with Jon Gruden, who won a Super Bowl with the Buccaneers after taking the Raiders to the playoffs in 2000 and 2001.

That nostalgia gives Raiders fans hope heading into the 2018 season, but the personnel departures and acquisitions don’t bode well for the team’s chances. Jon Gruden made a number of baffling signings. Doug Martin is far past his peak; pairing him with Marshawn Lynch, who doesn’t have much time left, based on his own running style, is downright illogical.

It’s worrisome when a 6-10 team’s best free agency acquisition is Jordy Nelson, a quality receiver who is growing dangerously close to the cliff of his career. And the Raiders didn’t do much better in the NFL Draft.

They had some decent picks. P.J. Hall in the second round was a bit of a reach, but he has the athleticism to become a stout defensive lineman. Maurice Hurst already is that stout defensive lineman, and the Raiders got him in Round 5. He was cleared of his reported heart issue prior to the NFL Draft, but he slid anyway, and as a result, the Raiders have new talent on the line which they desperately needed.

The rest of the Raiders’ defense, however, is less than stellar, and they didn’t do much in the NFL Draft to help with this. Nick Nelson and Akeem Victor are both players who will need to develop before they can become increased contributors. With Gareon Conley returning in good health in 2018, the Raiders will have a decent No. 1 cornerback. But the rest of the secondary is very much unsettled, and the linebacking core, with an aging Derrick Johnson and an overpriced Tahir Whitehead won’t be enough to compensate. Arden Key might finally be the help Khalil Mack needs on the edge, but in Year 1, that could be a lot to ask for.

Just as all teams do, the Oakland Raiders have the potential to surprise. But their offseason was not a promising one. Kolton Miller is a project at left tackle, and he will be thrown into the fire too early. Brandon Parker was also severely over-drafted. Marshawn Lynch and Doug Martin are both aging running backs with injury-prone skill sets, and Derek Carr hasn’t proven that he can sustain a level of play better than Andy Dalton’s. Perhaps the acquisition of Maitavius Bryant will help, but this is a Raiders’ team with lacking depth, and lacking talent. They needed to capitalize on their first offseason with a new head coach, and Gruden’s new philosophy may end up backfiring in spectacular fashion.

I don’t think the Jon Gruden experiment will work in Oakland. I could be wrong. But so could you, Raiders fans. Accept the unpredictability.

Oakland Raiders record projection: 4-12

Dallas Cowboys

In an ever-improving NFC East division, the Dallas Cowboys needed a very good NFL Draft to stay with the pack. I’m not convinced they met that requirement.

The Cowboys were already a team with some deficiencies on their roster in 2017. More formed in the offseason of 2018, and the Cowboys were tasked with alleviating those deficiencies. As I wrote in a review of the NFC East’ performance in the NFL Draft, the Cowboys did a decent job, but they left quite a bit on the table.

"The Cowboys hit on some positions, and overall, this draft gave them a number of players who will contribute early. However, there were too many holes to give them solid grade. In a division that seems to keep getting better, the Dallas Cowboys may have fallen behind with this draft class. It’s worth noting that the team traded a sixth-round pick for Rams’ hybrid receiver Tavon Austin. That alone won’t turn the fortunes of an inconsistent draft performance."

I think the offense will be decent in 2018. Most of the offensive line is still in tact, and Connor Williams will start at left guard. Ezekiel Elliot is back for his third season, as is franchise quarterback Dak Prescott. But the team’s defense isn’t deep enough, especially in the trenches, to stave off competitions and help the offense rest. There’s a reason the Cowboys wanted to sign Terrell McClain. Behind Tyrone Crawford, and Maelik Collins, the Cowboys are paper thin on the defensive line. Demarcus Lawrence should come in and play well, just as he did last year, but one player does not make a unit. The Cowboys need more to last sixteen games in the NFL, and right now, they don’t have it.

Combine this lack of depth on defense wit the unproven nature of Prescott’s skill position players, as well as the loss of Jason Witten, a true locker room leader, and the circumstances don’t appear to be adding up in the Cowboys’ favor.

Dallas Cowboys record projection: 5-11

New York Giants

The New York Giants are an unpredictable team in 2018. Their underwhelming 2017 campaign was more a result of coaching mishaps than a lack of talent, and in the 2018 offseason, the team made a number of key additions.

The Giants might not jump right back into the NFL playoff conversation, due to the turnover observed this offseason, but they’ll be one of those teams that hovers around the playoff boundary, much like the Washington Redskins did for part of the 2017 season.

However, there are a number of things keeping the Giants from taking the next step in 2018. Eli Manning is the quarterback, and although he has an extensive playoff history, he’s past his prime, and although he has the talent to succeed in Pat Shurmur’s, his days of playing winning football might be behind him. The Giants’ offensive line also needs more work, even after an offseason in which they acquired an experience, albeit inconsistent left tackle in Nate Solder, and a fierce interior blocker in Will Hernandez.

The Giants’ defense is respectable, but it ultimately won’t be good enough to keep the Giants’ offense afloat. Saquon Barkley’s dynamic ability will be evident in 2018, but his running style may not be a perfect match for the Giants’ average offensive line, and this could hurt the offense’s ability to be multi-dimensional. The Giants aren’t completely out of the conversation, but in a transition year, with a new head coach and an aging, middle-of-the-road quarterback, they shouldn’t be expected to rise above the competition in a very strong NFC East.

New York Giants record projection: 6-10

Philadelphia Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles didn’t lose much from last season, and coming out of the offseason, they actually appear stronger than they did before. Provided, letdowns happen all the time in the NFL, and the largest falls come with the greatest expectations. But if Carson Wentz comes back at full health, then there’s no reason to put the Eagles back where they were last year: At the top of the NFC.

Perhaps the biggest loss for the Eagles after the 2017 season wasn’t even a player departure; It was Carson Wentz. The Eagles did lose key contributors such as Trey Burton (although they replaced him with Dallas Goedert) and Patrick Robinson to free agency. Robinson, in particular, had a breakout year in the Eagles’ secondary, althgouh everyone behind the defensive line, in that defense, is a beneficiary of Fletcher Cox, Timmy Jernigan, Brandon Graham, and Derek Barnett.

The Eagles’ front seven returns in full force this year, and with new additions such as Michael Bennett and Josh Sweat, who should only add to the unit’s ferocity and depth, keeping players fresh and ready to impose their will on the pocket. The Eagles’ offense returns much of the same firepower from last year, all devolved into a masterful offensive scheme concocted by Doug Pederson.

Of all the teams in the NFL, after the offseason, the Eagles are still most deserving of a No. 1 ranking in the NFL. There are concerns surrounding the team’s secondary; their cornerback group features young and unproven players such as Sidney Jones, Rasul Douglas, and 2018 rookie Avonte Maddox. But any concerns in that area should be nullified by the team’s dominant front seven. The Super Bowl roster from a year ago is still very much in tact. The biggest question facing the Eagles, by far, is Carson Wentz’s health.

Wentz tore his ACL against the Rams last season, ending his hopes at personally leading the Eagles to a title in 2017. Nick Foles finished the job for him, highlighting not just how dominant the team’s defense was, but also how quarterback-friendly their scheme was as well.

That said, the Eagles can’t start with Nick Foles and expect to win thirteen games again. Carson Wentz showed, in an NFL MVP-worthy 2017 campaign, that he is one of only a few quarterbacks in the NFL who possesses proven franchise-driving talent. If Wentz is on track to return early in the 2018 season (reports say he is), then there’s no reason not to believe that the Eagles will be the team to beat for seventeen weeks this coming fall.

Philadelphia Eagles record projection: 13-3

Washington Redskins

Due to their recent history, onlookers are always quick to forget about the Washington Redskins, no matter the circumstances. But trends aside, the Washington Redskins are building a very strong roster, one that can certainly contend in the NFL playoff race.

Let’s look at the defense, because that has been the thing holding the Washington Redskins back in the NFL for almost a decade. The most improved sect of the defense is, quite obviously, the defensive line. A year after injuries forced Ziggy Hood to play nose tackle, the Washington Redskins rotation looks completely different. The rotation wasn’t necessarily weak last year; had Jonathan Allen and Matt Ioannidis stayed healthy consistently, the Washington Redskins’ defense very well could have stayed competitive.

But that’s not what happened. The team lost Allen, and the line rotation fell apart. In 2018, they won’t have that same problem. Allen and Ioannidis will be back in full force this season, and this time, they’ll be joined by players like first-round pick Da’Ron Payne, space-eating nose tackle Tim Settle, and ascending rotational lineman Anthony Lanier.

With Jim Tomsula coaching them up, this unit should be in line for a massive improvement in 2018, and with Ryan Kerrigan and Preston Smith setting the edge, disturbing the backfield should be much easier for this squad. Other skilled players on defense, such as Zach Brown, Mason Foster, Josh Norman, Montae Nicholson, and D.J. Swearinger, will all benefit as a result. With new playmakers and improved depth, this defense could be surprisingly effective in 2018.

While the Washington Redskins defense has taken time to improve, the offense has always been close, and in 2018, the unit might realize its full potential. Derrius Guice is an instant No. 1 running back, with the ability to immediately become one of the more productive runners in the NFL. Third-down back Chris Thompson will be back from injury, as will be athletic tight end Jordan Reed (hopefully). The Washington Redskins’ offensive line is largely solid, with one hole at left guard that can be filled multiple ways, and the receiving core is flush with potential; Josh Doctson still has yet to break out, but is trending up, Paul Richardson give the team speed they desperately lacked last year, and Jamison Crowder and Trey Quinn can both provide quality play in the slot.

The Washington Redskins’ offensive improvement is capped off by both the acquisition of Alex Smith and the retainment of head coach Jay Gruden. In his fifth year with the Washington Redskins, Jay Gruden should have valuable continuity, and Alex Smith fits perfectly into his scheme. Until the regular season starts, it’s always too early to be this optimistic. But the pieces are coming together in the nation’s capital. Teams build up from the trenches, and the Washington Redskins are low-key solid on both sides of the ball. In a division with teams such as New York and Dallas facing uncertainty, the Redskins could be primed to make a run.

Washington Redskins record projection: 11-5

Chicago Bears

You know how teams just come out of nowhere sometimes? That will be the Chicago Bears in 2018.

Yes, the Bears haven’t made any playoff noise in some time. But in 2018, that will change. I’m not as high on Matt Nagy as other onlookers; the Chiefs’ offense improved drastically under Nagy’s watch in the latter part of the 2017 season, but with all their talent, they couldn’t beat an average Tennessee Titans team in the playoffs.

Nagy came into the hiring process with a decent, if not thin, resume, and other coaching candidates like Frank Reich and Jon DeFilippo may have been better fits for Chicago’s needs. After all, both candidates were instrumental in helping Carson Wentz embark on an MVP-worthy campaign in 2017. With Mitch Trubisky entering his second year, the standard for the North Carolina product has been set by Wentz and his Eagles’ affiliates.

It’s a standard the Bears hope to match with Matt Nagy.

Nagy certainly has the talent to work with on the offensive side of the ball. Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen make for an explosive combination at running back, and after a year of confusion at the wide receiver position, the Bears are now filled to the brim at that position, with talented players such as Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Kevin White, and electric rookie Anthony Miller littering the ranks. Trey Burton provides more of that receiving value at tight end, and Dion Sims can compliment him as a blocker.

On defense, Nagy and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio have more of that underrated talent to work with. 2018 first-round pick Roquan Smith has the speed and defensive I.Q. to immediately elevate the unit, and in the linebacking core, he’ll be joined by other young, ascending players such as Danny Trevathan, Nick Kwiatkowski, Aaron Lynch, Kylie Fitts, and Leonard Floyd. Floyd, in particular, has the athleticism and talent to break out in his third professional season. He was a top ten pick in 2016 for a reason. Now healthy, and with a respectable rotation around him, the stars are aligning for Floyd.

It also helps that the Bears’ secondary is solid. Kyle Fuller and Price Amukamara make for an underrated cornerback duo, and Bryce Callahan, Cre’von Leblanc, and Marcus Cooper provide depth, in that regard. Adrian Amos was one of the best safeties in the NFL last year, and he’s joined by last year’s standout rookie, Eddie Jackson III, who should only improve in his second year. That safety duo is impressive, and if the Bears can generate more pass rush, their defense has immense potential.

Skill position players are nice to have, of course, but it all starts in the trenches. And the Bears are only getting better there. On the offensive line, the Bears have Charles Leno Jr. providing security at left tackle, with James Daniels, Cody Whitehair, and Kyle Long combining to form a strong interior. At right tackle, the team could use an upgrade over Bobby Massie. Massie has been an average starter his whole career.

Luckily for the Bears, they have the talent on the offensive line to boost him up. The Bears’ defensive line rotation, much like their situation on the offensive line, isn’t the strongest, but there are solid players like Eddie Goldman, Jonathan Bullard, and Akiem Hicks to keep the ship afloat. Bilal Nichols, the team’s sixth-round pick the year, also has early rotational potential.

The 2018 Chicago Bears squad is a team that has the talent to compete. The shock of an overhauled roster is on their side. With a perfect mix of holdover talent and young potential, the Bears will be in the hunt for the playoffs. Due to lacking depth in some areas, particularly on the trenches, they may not last as long as other teams. But it all comes down to Mitch Trubisky. If he can take on a second-year leap similar to Carson Wentz, then the Bears could very well achieve double-digit wins for the first time since 2012. They will be knocking on the door.

Chicago Bears record projection: 9-7

Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions could be that team that’s one or two plays away from 10-6. This team has the talent to do a lot of damage, if the right circumstances align themselves. But in this year’s NFC North, that might be asking for a lot.

The NFC North is shaping up to be the toughest division in the NFL this year. The Bears underwent an offensive overhaul and added talented defensive players like Roquan Smith, while bringing back an immense pool of holdover talent, from Adrian Amos to Leonard Floyd. The Viking were a Super Bowl contender last year, and this offseason, they only added talent, upgrading from Case Keenum to Kirk Cousins at quarterback, as well as signing players like Sheldon Richardson and 2018 first-round cornerback Mike Hughes to an already stacked defense.

Even the Packers, as disappointing as their 2017 season was, cannot be counted out as long as Aaron Rodgers is starting. The Lions have a lot of talent on their starting lineup, but in the NFC North, just one or two holes could be the difference from week to week.

At tight end, the Lions don’t have any reliable options, which will hurt in games, as Matthew Stafford often gave Eric Ebron opportunities up the middle. They do have a very talented cast of receivers, however, and Jim Bob Cooter’s offense has always been able to maximize the potential that Stafford holds with these options. That won’t be an issue.

What does remain under question, even after the offseason, is the team’s running game; Kerryon Johnson, the Lions’ second-round pick this year, has a smart, methodical running style, and his workmanlike approach should suit an offense that needs his talents. The Lions needed to add a runner to their stable, but their ability to run the ball meaningfully won’t be proven until Johnson puts it on the field. In Cooter’s pass-happy scheme, that could be an issue.

Personnel changes could encourage Cooter to change things up. Or he could put too much on Stafford’s shoulders. Stafford has proven he can handle pressure. He’s a top-ten passer in the NFL. But when an offense is one-dimensional, the quarterback is the one who suffers the most. Johnson isn’t the surefire NFL talent that Derrius Guice was in Round 2, and the Lions, even with a solid offensive line, may see some initial drawbacks, in that regard.

Among other things, the Lions need some development from Jarrad Davis, their starting linebacker, and they need their free agent acquisitions at that position to come up big. They also need someone to step up at the No. 2 cornerback slot opposite Darius Slay, and they could use more depth at safety. For the Lions, it’s little things. This team could be as high as 11-5 in 2018. But in a stacked NFC North, the Lions might be the team that falls behind.

I live in Michigan. I’ve followed the Lions for years. Trust me when I say that almost every year, when expectations are high, somehow, the circumstances align to belittle the Lions’ fortunes. Could that change under Matt Patricia? I hope so. But in Year 1, when the team and coaches are both adjusting, defaulting to the middle of the pack is a safe bet.

Detroit Lions record projection: 8-8

Green Bay Packers

In a broad sense, the Green Bay Packers are, and have been, much like the Seattle Seahawks for the last few years. Possessing a roster that has been perennially devoid of talent, the Packers have almost always found a way to stay in the postseason because of one player: Aaron Rodgers.

The Packers lost that player in 2017, and the impact of his loss was incredibly great. And while it pushed the Packers out of playoff contention in 2017, it also served a positive purpose, exposing the weak roster that Ted Thompson had maintained over the years.

Thompson was understandably let go after the season,a nd replaced by Brian Gutenkunst, who went the aggressive route in free agency for once, signing players like veteran tight end Jimmy Graham and stout defensive lineman Muhammad Wilkerson.

In the NFL Draft, the Packers only kept rolling. They addressed the No. 1 need on their roster, cornerback, by acquiring two first-round talents in Jaire Alexander and Josh Jackson. They also stocked up on wide receivers and defensive players on the front seven, hitting specific areas that have plagued the team over the years.

Gutenkunst’s blueprint was the one that the Packers needed, and in time, his philosophy will work, and build the Packers back up. But their roster was beyond one-year repair, and that is clear now with the holes that still remain on both offense and defense. Their interior offensive line leave much to be desired, and their running game, with Aaron Jones, won’t benefit from that trench situation.

On defense, the Packers failed to add the edge rushing talent needed to support an aging Clay Matthews and Nick Perry, and at inside linebacker, they still lack proven playmakers. There’s a chance it all comes together in Year 1. But in a very strong NFC North, I’m willing to bet that it will take more than one year for the new pieces to mesh. Aaron Rodgers will keep this Packers’ team on the doorstep. But that’s as far as they’re getting in 2018.

Green Bay Packers record projection: 8-8

Minnesota Vikings

This prediction was a particularly easy one.

Let’s not kid ourselves and act like Kirk Cousins isn’t an upgrade over Case Keenum. He is. Cousins has three solid seasons under his belt, and although he has yet to prove himself in the big games, he hasn’t quite had the opportunity in Washington. Jay Gruden deserves credit for what he made Cousins into, but Cousins also deserves credit for performing despite injuries and defensive inconsistencies all  throughout his three years.

While the Washington Redskins moved on from Cousins, and subsequently formed the roster he never had the privilege of being on, Cousins himself hit the market in search of the right situation. He found that with the Minnesota Vikings.

The Vikings’ offense is nearly elite. Minnesota has the playmakers at wide receiver and tight end, as well as a high-upside running back in Dalvin Cook. The offensive line could use more work; Cousins’ line in Washington was always better than what the Vikings have, save for the middle of the 2017 season, when injuries were in full effect.

Still, in Minnesota, Cousins has a strong supporting cast that he can use to hone his skills, and he finally has a top shelf defense to help pick up the slack where he falls short. Granted, the Washington Redskins defense has the potential to be similar in 2018, but the Vikings were proven to be dominant last year, and in 2018, they’ve only gotten better, adding players like Sheldon Richardson and Mike Hughes.

With a top-three defense in the NFL, it’s exciting to see what Kirk Cousins can do. But the pressure is also mounting. He only flirted with the playoffs in Washington.  Now, with a talented team and a proven playoff head coach, Cousins will be expected to win. And in 2018, he’ll meet those expectations, more or less on the back of the Vikings’ dominant defense.

Minnesota Vikings record projection: 12-4

Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons are a better team than their record will suggest. The NFL is a tough league, and the NFC South is a particularly competitive division. The Falcons are in a similar situation to the Titans. They have the talent, but will they be able to put it together consistently?

Consistency has always been a minor problem with Dan Quinn’s teams. If the Falcons can put together a complete season, then they could be one of the best teams in the league. Matt Ryan is a former MVP, with the talent at his disposal to direct a league-best offense. If anything is going to hold the Falcons back, it’s their defense.

It’s not because their defense is bad. In the NFL, the smallest differences make the biggest impact. The Falcons’ defense has a number of talented players. Deion Jones, Keanu Neal, Desmond Truant, Vic Beasley, Takkarist McKinley, and Grady Jarrett are all players worthy of recognition. But aside from these players, the Falcons lack proven payers. And especially on the defensive line, they lack depth. Deadrin Senat will help with this, but having a rotational unit is valuable in today’s league, and it’s clear that the Falcons do not have that, even after signing Terrell McClain.

The NFC South is not as weak as it has been in the past. All four teams have the chance to cause trouble on the playoff stage. The Falcons will be fighting with three teams for a piece of the pie. They’ll win some battles. They’ll lose a comparable amount.

Atlanta Falcons record projection: 9-7

Carolina Panthers

The performance of the Carolina Panthers ultimately comes down to Cam Newton, the 2015 NFL MVP. When he won MVP, accounting for 45 total touchdowns and over 4,00 yards from scrimmage, his team went 15-1, steamrolling their way to a Super Bowl, where they lost in a defensive bout against the Denver Broncos.

In both 2016 and 2017, Cam Newton’s play level dropped. He threw a combined 41 touchdowns to 30 interceptions, completing just above half of his passes. His record, in that time, was 17-13, and he missed the playoffs in 2016.

When Cam Newton is peak Cam Newton, he can lead the Panthers anywhere. His talents are undeniable. But when he’s scattershot Cam Newton, a quarterback that, as a thrower, struggles with consistency and accuracy, he’s hard to bank on.

Yes, Newton hasn’t ever had a supporting cast that matches his natural talents, and first-round wide receiver D.J. Moore will help with that. But aside from Moore, the Panthers’ offense is still very much a project. Devin Funchess is the only other wide receiver worth mentioning. Curtis Samuel fell off the map last year after being drafted in Round 2. Torrey Smith has always been a one-trick pony who has inconsistent hands. Even the team’s most reliable receiving threat, Greg Olsen, is facing uncertainty. At 33 years old, he isn’t guaranteed to uphold his current level of play. That’s what the Panthers drafted Ian Thomas for. But if Olsen ends up regressing, Newton instantly loses a valuable safety blanket.

Like any team, the Panthers can be good if they reach their full potential. Their defensive front, equipped with Kawann Short, Dontari Poe, and Vernon Butler, is impressively deep, and players like Luke Kuechly and Julius Peppers will help keep the Panthers above their floor. For all the talent this team holds, how well they perform will ultimately come down to Cam Newton. And if we get the same Cam Newton we have for the past two years, then 7-9 seems like a fair bet.

Carolina Panthers record projection: 7-9

New Orleans Saints

There’s nothing stopping the New Orleans Saints from being contenders this year, just as they were last year.

The Saints facilitated their playoff run last year not on the prowess of Drew Brees. Having the Hall of Fame to-be quarterback certainly helped, but the Saints’ playoff run was actually the result of an influx of young talent. The Saints did everything right in the NFL Draft last year, acquiring key contributors such as lockdown cornerback Marshon Lattimore, stout tackle Ryan Ramczyk, safety Marcus Williams, and 2017 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, Alvin Kamara.

The offense thrived off of the duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, and the defense was energized by droves of young talent. Whether it’s Sheldon Rankins, or Lattimore, or Williams, or Vonn Bell, or Michael Thomas, the Saints have a bevy of young stars at their disposal , and those players will only get better over the offseason of 2018.

With Drew Brees still in tow for another year, Sean Payton undoubtedly has Super Bowl aspirations. After all, they almost got there last year. With the talent surrounding Drew Brees, the Saints are the team to beat in the NFC South, and they have the potential to get back to the biggest game in the NFL.

New Orleans Saints record projection: 11-5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers did a lot of good this offseason. That is impossible to ignore. But also impossible to ignore is the tepid dynamic between coaches and players, and the perceived regression of Jameis Winston in 2017. If these developments don’t turn north quick, then the Buccaneers could find their ship sinking early in a contentious NFC South.

The Buccaneers have the talent to compete. The question isn’t about the team’s talent. After the draft and the conclusion of the offseason, the Buccaneers’ roster is considerably stronger, both on offense and on defense. But while the talent is undeniable, so is the questionable coaching. For other teams, such as the Browns, I gave this factor less weight, because Jackson, as dismal as he’s been with the Browns, has succeeded elsewhere. Dirk Koetter was an inside hire for the Buccaneers after other options ran dry.

Koetter had a decent first season with the team, but in 2017, there was much less cause for optimism. To see Jameis Winston regress so much, under an offensive-minded coach, was alarming, and it’s fair to wonder if the Buccaneers are in a  situation similar to the Titans when they had Mike Mularkey. The team has the talent to at least compete, but it’s clear that something between the coaches and players isn’t meshing. A comment made by offensive coordinator Todd Monken, per Jenna Laine of ESPN, only magnifies those concerns.

"We chose to suck. We chose not to do it as well as we can do it. I say that all the time, ever since I’ve been in coaching. Everyone has to take a bite of it because I always say, ‘We sure as heck want the credit when we win.’ I do. I want some of the credit. And we’ve gotta own it when we don’t. When we don’t score and we don’t take care of the ball, when we don’t do the little things that allow [ourselves] to win, then [we’ve] gotta own it."

These comments show that not only is the coaching staff deflecting blame for an underwhelming offensive performance in 2017, but they’re also projecting that blame onto the players alone. This kind of denial could be detrimental to the team moving forward. As we saw with the Giants in 2017, friction with a coaching staff can take down even the mightiest of teams. If the players and coaches can get on the same page, and if Jameis Winston can rebound from a down year, then the Buccaneers can certainly contend in the NFC South in 2018. But there’s a lot of “ifs” in that last sentence. This Buccaneers’ squad’s ceiling is double-digit wins. After adding players like Vita Vea, Ronald Jones, and Carlton Davis, the Buccaneers have upside, especially in the years to come. But there’s too much uncertainty to provide a ringing endorsement in 2018.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers record projection: 6-10

Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals managed to luck into the most pro-ready quarterback in the 2018 NFL Draft, trading up to the No. 11 pick to grab UCLA signal caller Josh Rosen.

Rosen will be a competent successor for Carson Palmer. And Steve Wilks will certainly be a good coach, in time. His resume with the Panthers speaks for itself. But 2018 will be an adjusting year.

The Cardinals still lack depth in too many key areas, especially on the offensive line. The average age of the Cardinals’ offensive line is approximately 29 years old, and of that bunch, only D.J. Humphries and Justin Pugh have enough left in the tank to be considered reliable options. The Cardinals have David Johnson, one of the best offensive skill players in the league, to help compensate for these shortcomings, but he can only do so much. An offensive line can make or break an offense, and for the Cardinals, with two injury prone quarterbacks, their front five does not bode well for them.

The Cardinals fare a little bit better in the trenches on the defensive side of the ball. Corey Peters, Olsen Pierre, and Rodney Gunter aren’t household names, but they’re under-appreciated in the sense that they get the job done, and they form a fairly serviceable rotation. Unfortunately, the rest of the defense leaves much to be desired. Chandler Jones and Patrick Peterson are top players at their respective positions, but they don’t have a lot of help. If Markus Golden, who logged 12.5 sacks in 2016, can get back to full speed after an ACL tear, that changes things. But Josh Bynes, Deone Buccanon, and Haason Reddick all have room to improve, and the switch to Wilks’ 4-3 scheme might not be seamless.

The Cardinals’ secondary is especially short-staffed after losing Tyrann Mathieu over a contract dispute. As mentioned earlier, Patrick Peterson is a top-shelf cornerback, but even after trading for Jamar Taylor, the Cardinals are extremely thin there. Buddy Baker should only get better in his second year with the team, but two players do not make a unit. The Cardinals’ defensive roster has some glaring holes which Steve Wilks might not be able to scheme around. In a division filled with dynamic offensive playmakers, it’s hard to imagine the Cardinals making a case for the playoffs. They may start out strong, due to the shock of a new coach and a new quarterback. But this roster isn’t yet built to last sixteen games.

Arizona Cardinals: 5-11

Los Angeles Rams

Say hello to your new NFC West juggernaut.

First, let me clear the air by saying that I’m not as high on the 2018 Los Angeles Rams as other people might be. Often, when NFL teams go all in on game-changing talent, one of two things happens. They either reach their full potential, and become the team to beat, or it all crumbles after the pieces refuse to coalesce in an effective manner.

I think the Rams of 2018 will do neither. With as much talent as Les Snead added to an already competent team, the Rams have to have a floor as a wild card team in the NFL. Their defensive line rotation is one of the best in the league, and their secondary has the talent to be elite.

Amidst the hype, it’s worth mentioning that Aqib Talib is well past 30 years old, and even the best players regress once they get old enough. Furthermore, Ndamukong Suh, who was released by the Dolphins earlier in the offseason, was rumored to be a locker room cancer. These are little factors, but they could add up, to some degree, and pose a threat to the Rams’ dream team. Wade Phillips is a very good defensive coordinator; He’ll keep his guys in line to the best of his ability. But when heightened expectations like those of the Rams unfurl and uncap so quickly, those expectations can bear a heavy weight, especially on teams with history like the Rams.

There is little doubt that the Rams will be a playoff team in 2018. Their offense has too much firepower, and under the innovative mind of Sean McVay, who won NFL Coach of the Year in 2017, Jared Goff and Todd Gurley should only continue to wreak havoc on opposing NFL defenses. But how long will this revamped defense hold together? How well will they respond to the expectations placed upon them? It’s all about risk and reward. The Rams put all their chips in. They want to win it all in 2018. They’ll get the chance. They just need to capitalize.

Los Angeles Rams record projection: 11-5

San Francisco 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers went 5-0 with Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm in 2017. With another year for the team’s young core to grow, and with all the moves the 49ers made this NFL offseason, it’s exciting to imagine how good they might be in 2018, as well as the years to come.

Count me as a believer in Jimmy G. He may not have extensive experience as a starting quarterback in the NFL, but in those five games he played last year, which included contests against the Jaguars, the Titans, and the Rams, Garoppolo showed everything he needed to show to gain onlookers’ confidence as a starting quarterback. He was poised, he displayed fluid fundamentals, he led his offense and served as an infectious leader, he drove the football down the field almost at will, and most importantly, he won. 5-0. With a 49ers roster that many considered to be talent deficient.

After a strong offseason, the number of 49ers doubters is dwindling, but Kyle Shanahan’s squad has yet to prove that they can be contenders on a full sixteen-game slate. Still, there’s reason to be confident besides Jimmy Garoppolo. The offense is flush with dynamic playmakers, from Jerick McKinnon to Dante Pettis, Pierre Garcon, and Marquise Goodwin. The offensive line is decent, and although they’l be looking for improvements on the interior, specifically from Laken Tomlinson and Joshua Garnett, the 49ers have a serviceable unit, and Garoppolo has shown he can win with worse.

On defense, the 49ers are sneaky good. Their front four is incredibly talented, with players like Solomon Thomas, DeForest Buckner, Sheldon Day, Jeremiah Attaochu, and Cassius Marsh. On the second level, Reuben Foster, who should be available after his assault charges are dropped, should effectively team up with Fred Warner to form an athletic duo at linebacker. In the secondary, the 49ers needed to add cornerback help, and they did just that by acquiring Richrd Sherman and D.J. Reed. Adrian Colbert and Jaquiski Tartt should pick up where they left off at safety, making plays and providing solid back-end play.

After weighing all the factors, it’s clear that the 49ers are close to competing. The offense under Mike Shanahan should be even more exciting in Year 2, and with Jimmy Garoppolo growing more and more comfortable as the team’s franchise quarterback, it’s not outrageous to expect the 49ers to battle with the Rams for AFC West superiority.

San Francisco 49ers record projection: 10-6

Seattle Seahawks

For years, it seems, Russell Wilson has run for his life behind a patchwork offensive line in Seattle. And now, with a defense in decline, the defense that held Seattle up for the last decade, the Seahawks may slowly be fading toward irrelevance in the NFC West.

As long as Russell Wilson is the Seahawks’ starting quarterback, the team will never truly be irrelevant. But the NFC West landscape is changing. The Rams and 49ers are both trending upward, and the Arizona Cardinals, with Josh Rosen, have the potential to make noise very soon. From a quarterback standpoint, the Seahawks have the best in the division, but from a roster standpoint, they don’t match up well.

On offense, the Seahawks are somewhat lacking in terms of proven firepower, and their perennially paper thin offensive line doesn’t help. Russell Wilson still has his safety blanket in Doug Baldwin, but he’ll still be scrambling to keep plays alive, and rookie running back Rashaad Penny, while a skilled player, will have trouble running behind this group of blockers. The Seahawks’ offense, now directed by Brian Schottenheimer, has the quarterback to maintain a high floor. But there are personnel deficiencies that will be impossible to overcome, especially against the defensive lines in the NFC West (see previous slides for details).

One would think that, just like years past, the Seahawks’ defense would be the team’s saving grace. But while talented players such as K.J. Wright, Bobby Wagner, and Frank Calrk still remain, the losses of Richard Sherman, Michael Bennett, and Cliff Avril will be hard to overcome, and with Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor aging, it’s fair to wonder if the Legion of Boom will lose its furor for a spell.

The Seahawks have the notoriety that suggests they’ll compete, and they have a coach who can elevate a subpar roster. But this year, the losses on defense may be too much to overcome. The Seahawks added a running back this offseason, but they didn’t do enough to bolster the trenches on that side of the ball. Granted, there wasn’t much they could feasibly do in one year. But that will come back to haunt them, as it always does.

Next: Analyzing the Redskins running back depth chart

Seattle Seahawks record projection: 5-11