Worried about the substitute refs that were relieved of their duties after three weeks?  Are they emotionally scarred and wish they hadn’t done it?  Lance Easley, the man who called the Inaccurate Reception, faced the press on CBS Sunday morning and said he do it all over again.  (Doesn’t Einstein have a saying dealing with doing the same thing over and over, expecting different results and insanity?  Do the replacement officials really think they did a good job?)  With the economy in the dumps, will it be hard for them to find jobs?  It took them less than a week to cross train, and last Friday you could see a few of them in action umpiring in the outfield of the Atlanta/St. Louis MLB wild card game.  MLB caved and the next day signed with the Outfield Umpire Union to a 10 year contract.  But don’t feel bad, the replacement officials are now available for you to hire if you are having problems with your salary negotiation with your boss.

The big story in the NFL from this past week…The Kansas City Chiefs are a T.O. signing away from sealing a deal with TMZ and MTV for a show that will start Dec 31st.  You have Jersey Shore (drunk fans cheering that one of their own is hurt), the Real Housewives of xxxx (Eric Winston throwing fans under the bus, fans furious with coaches and management for not backing them up), and Survivor (the Matt Cassel and Chiefs bandwagon is disappearing as fast as the Matsing tribe.)  All that was missing from this week was this T.O. press conference.  Besides, he has experience from producing his own reality show that lasted three years.  GM Scott Pioli would love that kind of security right now.

(The pick is in bold. Green is a winner. Red is a loser. Black is a tie or not played yet.)

Minnesota @ Washington (Give 2.5) - One reason for this pick: “Cobra” Kai  Forbath.  All five games the Redskins have played have been decided by one possession.  The Shanahan Clan figured out that if they are going to continue to play close games, then it’s best not to employ Scott Norwood, or anyone else that kicks under pressure like him.  These two teams are pretty evenly matched, but with RG3 scheduled to play I do give the edge to the home team with a QB who can avoid the rush and make plays with his legs, as long as he slides or runs out of bounds this week.

Pittsburgh (Give 6) @ Tennessee – Fact: Tennessee has lost it’s four games, in which they didn’t score 21 points on returns, by an average of 24 points.  Now you are asking them to prepare for a team lead by the Pirate (Roethlisberger) with newly reacquired weapon Rashard Mendenhall in three days?  Unless Tennessee can preform three more miracles at home like they did against Detroit, which remember included a snap that was never supposed to happen, then this game will be over at half-time.  Some might worry about Troy Palamalu’s injury and losing his run support.  The only person Chris Johnson is keeping up late at night now is his wife with his snoring.  Defensive Coordinators have kept the “star” running back from any rushes over 19 yards, and has only gained 25 yards in a game once this year.

St. Louis @ Miami (Give 3.5) - Brian Hartline through five games is not only 100 yards from breaking his best season in four years, but he is leading the league in receiving yards.  Did anyone tell Miami that they don’t have any wide receivers on their team?  Hartline will forever be associated as someone that went from 0% owned to 100% started in fantasy leagues without the benefit of an injury to a starter.  Add in Reggie Bush being in the top ten in rushing yards, and Ryan Tannehill has some weapons to ease the pressure off of him and his defense.  This is a team that is two overtime loses away from being 4-1.  The Rams have the exact opposite problem: they just lost their own best receiver for the next six weeks in Danny Amendola, and they don’t play well on the road losing 11 of their last 12.

Detroit @ Philadelphia (Give 4) - Yes, my mantra has been “if Vick keeps giving up the ball, then I’ll keep taking the points.”  Well, that doesn’t count against teams that don’t play very well.  Detroit has given up five returns for touchdowns in their last two games, and Matt Stafford has regressed some this season.  In addition, Michael Vick has a QB rating 30 points higher at home than on the road and will have all of his weapons back at full strength with Maclin and Jackson not even noted on the injury report this week.  Bonus prediction: Eagles fans start throwing beers on the field during warm-ups and we will see signs of “We Booed Santa.”  Philadelphia has to answer the call and show they are the rowdiest, and Braves and Chiefs fans are quickly stealing their title.

Dallas @ Baltimore (Give 3.5) - I’m really flattered.  Greg Garber at ESPN must be reading Riggo’s Rag.  Baltimore is currently the toughest palce to paly in the NFL.  Baltimore has not looked like the fourth best team as I have them ranked, but they win, and that’s what matters.  What matters more is they will be playing at home against a quarterback that instead of concentrating on how to play better than the last time we saw him (five interceptions against the Bears), Tony Romo will be practicing how to hold for their kicker.  Really, how hard is it for a punter to not get hurt?  Now this team might have three punters on its roster?  Punters hurt and struggling QB’s practicing their holds.  Not a combination I’m looking for when I pick upsets on the road.

Oakland @ Atlanta (Give 9) - Rule number 1 if you remember: Don’t bet on a West Coast team playing at 10am Pacific Time unless you have a good reason.  Rule number 4: Don’t give up two scores unless you have a good reason.  The only reason I can think of for the former is if Sabastian Janikowski can now kick 90 yard field goals.  He can’t.  As for the Falcons, their offense is firing on all cylinders and are going up against the 28th ranked passing defense that is dealing with injuries.  If the Grey (they have lost the shine of Silver)  and Black haven’t had an interception in four games (including one against interception prone Tannehill), chances are they won’t pick off Matty Ice.

Kansas City (Take 4) @ Tampa Bay – With one play, the Chiefs eliminated 14 of their 19 turnovers.  If Kansas City does turn things around, the AFC West will be sending Haloti Ngata coal for Christmas for injuring Matt Cassel.  (It might be O.K. since Chiefs fans have already sent him thank you letters.)  Tampa Bay now has to face a team that is second in rushing, fourth in offense and tenth in total defense.  Two things travel well.  Rushing and defense and the Chiefs have both.  Previous teams overcame being out-gained each game due to Cassel turning the ball over 2.8 times per game.  Yes, Brady Quinn is a backup quarterback, but even backups can hand off the ball without losing it at the goal line.  The Chiefs come out and play inspired football to make sure the choice is hard for Romeo Crennel  to play Cassel again.

Cincinnati (Give 1) @ Cleveland – Cleveland still hasn’t figured things out.  You can’t be spotted with a two score lead and then watch it evaporate before the end of the first half.  There are two big hesitations for me on this game though.  A.J. Green is listed as questionable to play on Sunday.  Second, Joe Haden is quietly becoming a shut down corner for the Browns.  However, if A.J. Green does play, Haden can’t cover him and Andrew Hawkins.  And although the Bengals have an average running attack, the Browns have one of the worst rushing defenses in the league.

Indianapolis (Take 3) @ NY Jets – The Jets made a game out of Monday Night, but lets recap.  The Texans ended the first half at the three and due to time were forced to kick a field goal.  The Jets scored a touchdown on a kick return, and most of the Jets fans weren’t there to boo Mark Sanchez off the field because they were at the Yankees game.  For the Colts, the “Suck for Luck” campaign has already paid off dividends.  For a rookie, he is already showing signs of a quarterback you don’t want to have his hands on the ball late in the fourth quarter if you are a fan of the other AFC South teams.  The Colts also have more talent on each side of the ball, but the clincher for me is, if the Jets have a slow start in their third straight home game, the chants for Tebow will start, who isn’t even taking snaps in practice this week.

New England @ Seattle (Take 3.5) – Seattle is a tough place to play.  As the year gets late and the weather deteriorates in the Northwest, the crowd feeds on it and it becomes a hostile place to play.  If this game was in New England I’d give two scores, but I hate giving points in Seattle.  This is a team that took out a well favored Saints team in the playoffs two years ago after going 7-9!  New England’s running game is good enough to go on the road and win, but Seattle’s defense is number three against the run.  That means Brady and the passing game will have to deal with the noise and the rain that is expected.

Buffalo @ Arizona (Give 4.5) - I love optimism.  Buffalo saw what San Francisco did by staying in the East in between road games out there and won the second of two road games.  Chan Gailey then took notes from Jim Harbaugh and is trying the same thing this week out West.  Yes, that’s the reason the Niners win games, not the fact they have the best defense since the 2001 Ravens.  Also a little note, teams that travel to the West don’t have the problems that teams from the West have when traveling East.  West coast teams playing early games play at 10am according to their body’s clock.  That’s probably the toughest part of the road trip.  Getting your body to go full tilt when its still used to still warming up at that time.  Plus they are the Bills, even Arizona will probably put up 20 points this week.

NY Giants (Take 6.5) @ San Francisco – Eli Manning is just as sharp as anyone in the league and this is not a defense that will be blown out, even on the road.  For San Francisco, they have to play a professional football team this week.  I expect the Niners to fall behind by two scores while they get readjusted to a team that plays at an elite level.  They may come back from behind and win the game, but this is too many points for me to give up to a G-Men team that beat the Niners in the same place last year for the NFC Championship in overtime.  Expect this game to be low scoring, well under 45.5, lots of defense, and a kicker to win this game.

Green Bay @ Houston (Give 3.5) - Houston’s rushing defense took a major blow when Brian Cushing was lost for the season.  The good news for them, is that they will have an extra week to figure out how to deal with that problem.  Green Bay is reeling, and needs to figure out how to play offense for more than 20 minutes per game.  The past two games, they have come out scoring in bunches.  Then this attack dog that was allowed to roam freely last year is yanked by its chain that is tied to a tree, and teams come back little by little and steal the win.

Denver (Take 1.5) @ San Diego – San Diego is now 3-1 against teams that are 4-15.  In their other game, they were blown out at home against a passing team like Denver when they faced Atlanta in week three.   For once, Denver will figure out that this game isn’t played in a park, and that “Last score wins” is not in the NFL rule book.  I don’t expect Denver to fall asleep in the first three quarters as they have done in each of their three loses.  In the battle of quarterbacks, everyone loves Philip Rivers, but San Diego is ranked 23rd in offense, and five interceptions in five games is not exactly what they Chargers were looking for when they asked for Rivers to improve upon his 20 from a year ago.  Peyton Manning starts playing 2 1/2 hours before the game starts so he is in 4th quarter condition for the entire game, and Denver wins late off of a Philip’s pick.

Last week: 10-4 (Against the Spread) Did not pick an O/U

Season: 41-35-1 (Against the Spread) 1-3 (Over/Under)

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So what stood out to me last weekend?  Well the Lions have a bye week to fire their special teams coach after giving up four touchdowns in two weeks.  The Raiders have returned this year to being the Raiders.  They have a great kicker and punter, and are now resorting to safeties playing at corner back.  (And the Redskins thought they have problems in the secondary.)  Have they made a first round pick that has made the pro-bowl currently playing offense or defense?  I got several letters asking me if I was crazy picking Carolina and Cleveland, but both of those worked out as they covered.  This week I get the feeling I have one that will really have you scratching your head.  Something I did learn, that if you aren’t sure about a game RUN when someone has a stone cold lock of the year.  If your friend was that good at picking games he would be the one with the lights on his roof going 24/7, oxygen pumped into your system, and free booze flowing delivered by busty women in skimpy outfits.  (Is the Playboy Mansion really just an undercover casino?)

(The pick is in bold. Green is a winner. Red is a loser. Black is a tie or not played yet.)

Atlanta (Give 3) at Washington – As if opposing receivers weren’t beating up the Redskins secondary enough, now their own wide outs are taking out the secondary in pregame warm-ups.  Not that the return of Brandon Merriweather would shut down Julio Jones and Roddy White, but even the 29th ranked passing attack of the Buccaneers put up 293 yards through the air and almost came back to win after being down by 21-3 without him in the lineup.  If Atlanta is favored by 3, then that means this game could come down to a field goal.  So I ask you: Do you have more faith in Matt Ryan against the 31st ranked secondary, or Billy “Scott Norwood” Cundiff kicking field goals?

Arizona at St. Louis (Take 1.5) – Arizona is 4-0 but has yet to gain over 300 yards.  This has never happened in NFL history.  How did it happen in today’s pass oriented game? Three of those wins have been home and the other against a New England team on the road after a mysterious holding penalty, and then they pulled a Billy Cundiff to end the game.  Arizona has a great defense, but the Jeff Fisher led team doesn’t turn over the ball as much as it takes it away.  Kolb has played well, but is relying on his defense to win games.  That all comes to a halt this week as the better running game wins out.  I’ll take Steven Jackson over a guy that leads the Cardinals with a total of 131 yards rushing.

Miami at Cincinnati (Give 3) – Miami has played 10 quarters in the past 2 weeks, and lost both of those games.  That is a lot of energy and emotion to put out there and not have success.  GM Jeff Ireland is rumored to have tried to hire Buck Showalter to advise the Dolphins once the game goes into overtime. I am impressed with how they played in those two games, but they are primed for a let down, and in the NFL, that means blowout.  Andy Dalton and A.J. Green are competing this year with Ryan and White as the best passing combo in the league, and Miami gave up over 300 yards to Kevin Kolb.  Cincinnati has an offense that you need either a top 10 type defense to slow down, or a top 10 scoring offense to keep up on the scoreboard and Miami has neither.

Cleveland at NY Giants (Give 8.5) – Yes the Giants have historically played down to their opponents, but now the Giants are the toast of the town ever since the Jets misread their altimeter and hit the side of a cliff.  After letting the Eagles off the hook with a last minute penalty and Eli Manning throwing a 4th quarter interception, Tom Coughlin’s face went Jeff Dunham’s Walter.  (Then again, he does look like that after he eats breakfast and finds out it will rain.)  Meanwhile the Browns lost an emotional Thursday game on the road and could have a let down.  It won’t matter because if it does come down to it, you can count on Greg Little to drop a pass that is desperately needed.

Baltimore at Kansas City (Take 6) – This week’s “you’re crazy” pick.  A few quick facts.  Kansas City has the number 5 offense and a better ranked defense (13th) than the Ravens.  This team has also out-gained each of its opponents.  (The NFL needs a week like ESPN’s Bracket Busters.  I need to see the Chiefs play the Cardinals, out-gain them 500 to 150 and find out just how Matt Cassel loses the game.  It’s sports, reality tv, and a mystery all in one!)  Baltimore’s defense isn’t what it used to be (ranked 23), and if the Chiefs figure out they have the number two rushing offense in the league and Cassel borrows a copy of  ”What Happens When Your Quarterback Doesn’t Commit Three Turnovers a Game” from Micheal Vick, this will be this week’s upset of the week.

Philadephia at Pittsburgh (Give 3) – Michael Vick doesn’t turnover the ball and I lose when picking against him while Eli does throw a key interception.  He won’t be so lucky this time with James Harrison and Troy Polumalu taking time out from doing shampoo commercials.  There is little doubt the Steelers defense missed these top tier defenders and you know Harrison is just salivating over which player will account for his first letter, in the form of a fine, from Roger Goodell.  The bye week couldn’t have come at a better time for Pittsburgh as Rashard Mendenhall is also expected to return to the lineup.  Antonio Brown won’t fumble the game away this week, Vick will.

Green Bay at Indianapolis (Take 7) – You would think the calls would have gone in favor of the Packers after their sacrifice the week before brought the regular refs back to officiate.  You would be wrong.  I still wasn’t that impressed with Green Bay’s offense, and if they can’t get that spark at home in a game they needed to win against the Saints, then I don’t see them finding it this week on the road.  The Colts with Andrew Luck will continue to be competitive at home.  Don’t look now but if they can squeeze by this game, the next five games are all winnable.  I don’t expect them to be in the playoffs, but this team with a confident quarterback aren’t exactly the doormat most people expected.

Chicago (Give 6) at Jacksonville – Each week I see the Jaguars play, and each week I see a team “led” by Blaine Gabbert.  Cincinnati was able to stack the box and shut down MJD last week.  Chicago showed they can play on the road and shut down a team with a decent offense.  I can tell you their game plan this week will be put 10 in the box and make MJD quit.  Maybe he already did.  Players who hold out on a team that is 1-3 and have no other offensive weapons don’t play hard.  With the trade deadline still a few weeks away, when does he make his demand to leave?  Cutler is still throwing his tantrums on the sideline, but at least now he is just pouting and hiding from his coaches instead of hitting and yelling at his teammates.

Seattle (Take 3) at Carolina – In the spirit of the Presidential race:  ”Read my lips” Cam Newton can’t win without a running game.  Last week Carolina rushes for 199 yards, and Cam Newton posts a 119.3 quartback rating.  Let’s now look at Seattle.  Uh Oh Cam, they only give up 62 yards on the ground each game.  With the Seahawks coming to Charlotte with kryptonite in hand, this game reminds me a lot of when the Panthers played the G-Men two weeks ago.  Yes, Russell Wilson isn’t Eli Manning, but he is a capable quarterback and he has a solid rushing game himself with Marshawn Lynch leading the league in that category.  Seattle has a brutal next four weeks after this game, so they know they need to win Sunday.

Tennessee at Minnesota (Give 5.5) – I’m not an offensive line guru, but I’m guessing you need to improve yours when your starting quarterback has two separated shoulders in the first four weeks.  Matt Cassel Hasselbeck came in after Locker went down, and promptly showed why he is the backup.  He will have more time to prepare this week, but Minnesota is playing in their (crumbling) dome where they have already beaten the 49ers.  I don’t expect Hasselbeck to fare much better this week in a more hostile place to play.  Ponder had his first poor game of the year, but still hasn’t thrown an interception this season.  Give me the better quarterback and running game and you can have the points.

Denver at New England (Give 6.5) – The Broncos (read Manning) haven’t shown they play well on the road.  The Bills woke the sleeping dog known as the Brady to Welker/Gronkowski.  45 points in the second half and 31 in the fourth quarter alone.  Unfortunately for Brady, their defense also came out and showed what they used to be.  So is this the 2011 offensive Patriots or the 2012 defensive Patriots?  Either way, the Broncos will go home 2-3.  The Broncos have had troubles with passing games and good pass defenses.  So if Wes “Ferret” Welker isn’t benched or the defense shows up, they should be able to duplicate what the Falcons and Texans did to confuse noodle arm himself  and put up points on offense.  Belichick is a defensive mastermind who knows how to play copycat.

Buffalo (Take 10) at San Francisco – San Francisco is my survivor pick this week, but do I feel comfortable giving 10 points to a team that averages 29?  Not so much.  It’s hard (New England showed it’s not impossible) to win by that many points against a scoring team, and I don’t think San Francisco has the same sort of fire power as Brady’s passing game does.  Yes, San Francisco put up 34 last week, but that included two turnovers on injuries, a blocked punt when they rushed only 2, and rushing against a defense that quit!  Fitzpatrick is the type of quarterback you can’t count on or out.  He won’t win, but he will keep this game within 10 points.

San Diego at New Orleans (Give 3.5) – It should tell you something when a 0-4 team is favored over a 3-1 team.  The Chargers have three wins against teams with a total of three wins.  Drew Brees is not going to let a West Coast team come into his house and ruin his record breaking day.  Brees even conned Goodell to let head coach Sean Payton into the building on Sunday.  Chargers, if I were you, start looking for wire taps in your suites, and blue tooth signals traveling from Payton to the Saints sideline.  Brees will go Seal Team Six and play defense if that’s what it takes to win this game.  The Chargers will give up too many yards, for the third week in a row, to win this game.

Houston (Give 8) at NY Jets – Houston, the Jets have a problem.  Quick get your ticket in now.  This line has moved 9 points since it opened at 1-point for the home team.  (Tony called a guy who knew a guy to set it at -1 home so he could make some extra money.)  By the time you read this, it probably will be -10 Houston.  Let’s review.  The Jets have no running game, have lost their top tight end, their second best wide out in Santonio Holmes (remember: Cromartie self-proclaimed himself as the best, but obviously needs to worry more about his coverage skills) is out for the year, and now have running back McKnight at corner back.  At least Apollo 13 had the parts needed on the spacecraft that were able to fix their problems.  At this point even Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin couldn’t help bail out Mike Tannenbaum’s horrible personnel decisions.

Last week: 8-7 (Against the Spread); 8-9 (Overall)

Season: 31-31-1 (Against the Spread) 32-35-1 (Overall)

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Dec 4, 2011; Cleveland, OH, USA; Referee Ed Hochuli during the game between the Cleveland Browns and the Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric P. Mull-US PRESSWIRE

Now I’ve heard that the unionized refs are thanking the substitute refs for being so bad, so that they won’t be booed by fans, criticized by writers or yelled at by coaches.  And Mike Boogie from Big Brother thinks it’s a good idea to sacrifice players on their own alliance to keep Chill Town around.  However, they forget the relativity theory of referee criticism: “The amount of criticism and ridicule a referee/judge is subject to is relative to the level of play said referee/judge is presiding over.”  Nowhere in there does it say “NFL refs are excluded.”  Now there will be a grace period since these guys can’t possibly be as bad as the guys in first three weeks, but by the following Monday, “Substitute Refs Come Back” will be on a Seattle doorstep after a blown call, and Kharma, costs the Seahawks a game.

As for yours truly, my picks have suffered from some seriously bad reffing, but Vegas, and the other side of those bets don’t ask for excuses.  They ask for greenbacks.  So I’m forking them over again this week, but all things considered, 2 games under .500 during a 3-week referee debacle isn’t so bad.  That does get you into the NBA playoffs. (I’m looking at you ’10-’11 Pacers.) (The pick is in bold. Green is a winner. Red is a loser. Black is a tie or not played yet.)

Washington (Take 2.5) at Tampa Bay – Washington’s secondary can’t believe their eyes.  A team that gives up more passing yardage than us?   And the over/under isn’t above 50 with the worst two passing defenses in the NFL? These guys will go over 47.5 by the end of the third quarter, if not sooner.  RG3 leads a better offense, with a better rushing game, and a better front 7, so I like them in this close game.  My question: Will RG3 survive this game?  The Redskins have to make sure he takes less hits.  That includes having a big enough lead so that Greg Schiano doesn’t send the full out blitz when the Skins take a knee.

Cleveland (Take 12) at Baltimore – The home fans proved me right last week.  One of the toughest places to play/ref.  No seven second delay was going to work when they started fertilizer chants in perfect harmony instead of “defense” on Sunday night.  Ravens are entering the infamous trap game and so are their fans.  Emotional win late Sunday night, and a game in Missouri next week against a Chiefs team that will be in first by the end of the weekend.  Cleveland has nothing to lose.  They come off their worst game of the season, and Weeden and Richardson need to prove why they were taken in the first round.

Seattle (Give 2.5) at St. Louis – I would say St. Louis plays better at home, but to review, the lambs are a Captain Morgan meltdown and swiss cheese Redskins secondary away from being 0-3.  Seattle’s road loss doesn’t look too bad right now.  Now, they won’t be able to have Golden Tate blatantly shove a defender, then catch a safety, uh, I mean the ball, on a Hail Mary to win.  The real refs are back.  Good news for Seattle, they are playing the Rams, and it won’t come down to that.  Russell Wilson is throwing a respectable 86 passer rating, and Marshawn Lynch has over 100 yards per game rushing.  Running games travel well.

Carolina (Take 7) at Atlanta – I know you think I’m crazy.  Cam Newton has looked horrible.  But remember what I’ve said-  His kryptonite is having no running game.  This week Mr. Newton turns back into Superman.  Carolina doesn’t face a top 10 rushing defense this week like it has in the Panthers two losses.  Cam Newton faces a bottom 10 rushing defense.  Carolina will be able to put up points against this team, and I don’t think Cam will turnover the ball like noodle arms – Manning and Cassel, so this game will be close.  I don’t know if Carolina will win, but I will take the large spread in a high scoring game.

San Francisco (Give 4) at New York Jets – Do I feel nervous taking 5 road teams to start my picks.  YES!  Do I like a team where the spread has moved 5 points since the line opened with the home team favored by 1.  Yes! Yes! Yes!  Three yeses, trump one yes.  Brad Pitt took Angelina Jolie over Jennifer Aniston, right?  Last year the 49ers kept their team in Ohio in between two road games with early starts….and it worked.  So that negates the West Coast team playing an early game on the East coast theory.  Besides, do you think the 49ers defense is a little upset over giving up multiple 80-yard TD drives to a second year QB named Ponder?

New England (Give 4) at Buffalo – I really don’t like taking this many road teams.  But Buffalo is now onto their 3rd string running back.  Fitzpatrick just isn’t good enough to carry this team on his own, and Choice is a good replacement, not a work horse.  As for the Patriots, New England has lost their past two games.  Brady hasn’t lost three in a row since 2002.  Brady and Welker are getting their grove back and Belichick, $50,000 fine, won’t have to worry about attacking footlocker employees for bad calls with the Tuck Rule refs now back from their three week vacation.

Tennessee at Houston (Give 12) – 12 is a lot of points to give for a game, but the Titans gave up more than that last week to Shaun “Who” Hill in less than a minute.  Houston’s special teams will be on notice, and will not give up touchdowns at home unless their defense is on the field.  I know, you’re screaming “trap game”.  Well this is the AFC South, or as the Texans say, bye weeks.  Schuab has won his last six games against the AFC south and he leads a team that is solid on both sides of the ball.  The Mario Williamsless defense is ranked second in the league.

Minnesota (Take 7) at Detroit – I’m fairly certain crowd noise won’t be the problem this week for Detroit.  It probably won’t be a problem for Minnesota either.  Detroit has lost both games on the road, where typically you need a rushing game to travel.  Guess what Detroit doesn’t have.  Guess what they will have to rely on if Stafford can’t play on Sunday.  I’m not counting on Shaun Hill throwing Hail Mary’s to pull out this win.  Minnesota showed it can move the ball and has consistently played in close games this year.

San Diego at Kansas City (Give 1) – As taking notes from my Rule 3 above.  Take a team with a big spread move.  Especially if the money is coming in for the home team.  The line has already moved four points on this game.  Then again, maybe the gamblers realized the Chargers beat up on Tennessee and Oakland.  Kansas City has developed a pass rush, and as long as they can keep the ball out of Cassel’s hands (he has more turnovers than all but one TEAM) they will be fine.  I’ve seen teams come back from down by 18, but to do it with a running game?  Jamaal Charles and the resurgent pass rush will lead this team to a win.

Cincinnati (Give 2.5) at Jacksonville – The Bad Quarterback Axiom: A Blaine Gabbert led team should never be favored over another one that has a winning record. With a minute left to go in the game last week he had 68 yards passing.  Cincinnati puts up points (over 28 per game) and Jacksonville is ranked 28th on defense. I just don’t see how Jacksonville can keep up without a passing game.  Cincinnati might start putting 9 in the box on defense this week.  I’ll keep reminding you, MJD held out, and at some point that will come back to bite the Jaguars.

Miami at Arizona (Give 5.5) – You roll the dice anytime Kolb starts a game, but the bad quarterback axiom does call for them to play a team with a winning record.  I just don’t see how the Dolphins put up many points against the Cardinals.  Arizona is ranked 10th on defense and knows how to create turnovers.  Tannehill is reminiscing the old days when Reggie Bush was healthy and he had a Raider secondary to throw against.  Tannehill – Bush + Arizona Defense  + Kolb = Under 39. Don’t look now, but their schedule is set up where the Cardinals could be 7-0 when they play the 49ers on MNF.

Oakland at Denver (Give 6.5) – Why do you trust a quarterback that waits for the 4th quarter before attempting to lead his team back from double digit deficits and comes up just short each week?  Because Peyton’s last name isn’t Tebow and this week is going up against the 26th ranked passing defense.  Manning has literally only played three games in the past 21 months.  He faced three defenses that play well against the pass.  Now comes in a team that is starting guys that were watching tv a few weeks ago.  Denver is fully aware that the Oakland offense runs through McFadden.  Expect to see Jack Del Rio dare the Raiders to beat them with a depleted WR corps.

New Orleans at Green Bay (Give 7.5) – It’s hard to give up two scores with a Green Bay team that doesn’t average 20 points a game.  But when a Saints team comes marching in that gives up a 18 point lead to a team that is a rushing team, I see A. Rodgers’ offense coming alive.  What got lost in Monday Night’s debacle, is the adjustments Green Bay’s offense made at half.  In the first half Rodgers was sacked 9 times.  Second half: Green Bay had the ball for 36 of the first 42 snaps, and didn’t give up a sack in the second half.  Now they have a full week to dissect what the Saints defense does…or more accurately, doesn’t do.

NY Giants (Take 1.5) at Philadelphia – As long as Michael Vick keeps giving up the ball, I’ll keep taking the points.  Unfortunately Andy Reid looks like he is about 3 more turnovers away from pulling Vick as the starter.  That will mean I’ll have to find my easy wins somewhere else.  I was a little worried about my Giants pick last week, but E. Manning looks like he can take the Raiders’ receivers and make them pro-bowlers.  Defensively, the Giants are playing like the team that made the playoff run last year and Vick will have to throw the ball this week for the Eagles to win.  Turnovers in the first half, Nick Foles in the second half.

Chicago at Dallas (Give 3.5) – Hmmm Tony Cutler or Jay Romo.  Two quarterbacks that look incredible one week, and make you wonder if they are Super Bowl caliber teams.  Then they show up the following week and make ridiculous throws you’d get mad at a junior high quarterback making and throwing tantrums a five year old makes when you take away his favorite toy.  Add in two defenses that are ranked in the top 6, and this game has the makings of one ugly game.  I foresee Jay Cutler getting thrown out of the game for hitting his own offense line and the returning refs looking as confused as the replacement refs on how to assess the penalty.

Last week: 7-10; Overall: 24-26-1.

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