…it’s that it is time to invest in the stock market Redskins Fans!
Since 1967 there has been a Super Bowl. The Packers vs. the Steelers this coming Sunday will represent the 45th battle for league supremacy and crowning of the world champions. The game was originally comprised of the top team from the American Football League (AFL) facing off against the top team from the National Football League (NFL). Since then there has been an alarming correlation between a winning team’s league of origin and the behavior of the stock market the following year. This completely bogus correlation is known as the Super Bowl Stock Market Predictor, and it illustrates the phenomenon that if the team that wins the Super Bowl has its roots in the original NFL, the stock market will increase. However, if the winning team was originally from the AFL, the stock market will decline.
Two very bored researchers decided to test the theory in 1990. Back then, using 20 years of Super Bowl results from the first in 1967 through 1988, the predictor proved to be right 91% of the time!
More recently Professor George Kester of Washington and Lee College has retested the theory for every super bowl up until last years and found that throughout the previous 43, the super bowl champion has correctly predicted the behavior of the stock market 79% of the time. While this shows that the predictor has been less accurate as of late, over time, 79% accuracy might be something worth betting on.
The good news this year? We can root for whoever we want! Both the Steelers and Packers are original NFL teams, meaning the market is bound to increase in 2011. So get out there and invest people! Maybe we can get enough $$ together to buy the team from Dan Snyder!
A spurious correlation is a relationship between two occurrences (like original football league and the stock market) that have no causal connection. It’s hard, if not impossible, to actually take your hard earned money and invest in something that has no rational explanation. If this post doesn’t convince you to throw away some money, it should at the very least provide you with an interesting water cooler topic to bring up at work when you’re sick of talking about all the ridiculous weather.
Predictor’s lack of success over the last ten years (I think it’s safe to place blame squarely on the Giants and Patriots, don’t you?):
Ravens (NFL, formerly Browns) vs. New York Giants (NFL)– 34-7 – Stock Market down – Predictor WRONG
AFL Patriots vs. Rams (NFL) – 20-17 – Stock Market down – Predictor Right
Bucs vs. Raiders (AFL)– 48-21 – Stock Market up – Predictor N/A, Bucs are an expansion team
Patriots (AFL) vs. Panthers – 32-29 – Stock Market up – Predictor WRONG
Patriots (AFL) vs. Eagles (NFL) – 24-21 – Stock Market up – Predictor WRONG
Steelers (NFL) vs. Seahawks – 24-10 – Stock Market up – Predictor Right
Colts (NFL) vs. Bears (NFL) – 29-17 – Stock Market up – Predictor Right
Giants (NFL) vs. Patriots (AFL) – 17-14 – Stock Market down – Predictor WRONG
Steelers (NFL) vs. Cardinals (NFL) – 27-23 – Stock Market up – Predictor Right
Saints (NFL) vs. Colts (NFL) – 31-17 –Stock Market up – Predictor Right
When the Redskins are involved the Predictor is 100%!
1973 Loss to the AFL’s Dolphins –Stock Market down – Predictor Right
1983 Victory over AFL’s Dolphins – Stock Market up – Predictor Right
1984 Loss to AFL’s Raiders– Stock Market down – Predictor Right
1988 Victory over AFL’s Broncos – Stock Market up – Predictor Right
1992 Victory over AFL’s Bills – Stock Market up – Predictor Right