Comments on: Trading Down? http://riggosrag.com/2008/04/14/trading-down/ A Washington Redskins Blog Mon, 08 Mar 2010 19:37:35 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: FalconsFreak http://riggosrag.com/2008/04/14/trading-down/comment-page-1/#comment-633 FalconsFreak Tue, 15 Apr 2008 13:32:00 +0000 http://riggosrag.com/2008/04/14/trading-down/#comment-633 Falcons have THREE 2nd round picks, not two Falcons have THREE 2nd round picks, not two

]]> By: dwagner http://riggosrag.com/2008/04/14/trading-down/comment-page-1/#comment-632 dwagner Tue, 15 Apr 2008 06:00:37 +0000 http://riggosrag.com/2008/04/14/trading-down/#comment-632 <p>Ahh...but here is the thing.  There really isn't any extra guarantee of drafting a star in the first round.  One only has to look at the difference in draft positions of Heath Shuler and Tom Brady to know the truth--it is a total crap shoot.  So my feeling is that the more times you roll the dice the better.</p><p>And remember the thing about these starter percentages.  There is almost no first rounder who doesn't eventually get at least a try out as a starter.  There is too much money at stake not to try.  2nd and 3rd rounders don't get that special treatment.  In other words, those stats have an inherant bias in them that when you correct for, it shows how little the first round matters.  </p><p>I don't have to remind you that Bobby Bethard moved down in the draft as often as he could and it made us better.  Bethard was often accused of not getting "market value" for those trades, but if you trust your scouting and your coaching, you get way more bang for your buck.  Did all of Bethard's picks work out?  Nope.  Not even close.  But more of them worked out than most teams partially because we had so many tries to get it right.</p><p>The final judgment as to whether to trade or not to trade has to do with who is left at 21.  Personally, I think the current draft buzz shows that the guys we're sure about will be gone.  I'd much rather trade down and get "less then market value" than take a guy who we don't particularly like just because it is the first round.  That's how you end up with busts. </p><p>That's the trend you see we bucked with Bethard's picks.  When we selected in the first round we picked Monk or Green.  But when we traded out of the first round we were able to get more picks some of which turned into guys like Mark Rypien (one of two first rounders in a year we traded out of the first round) or Raleigh McKenzie (one of two 11 rounders when we traded out of the first round). </p><p>Admittedly, you can't do it forever.  The Redskins went seven straight years without making a first round pick, and near the end of that run we stopped being able to find the late round gems.  This, plus the salary cap, are the two reasons the 90's were less than stellar.  But selected moments of trading out of the first round will save money, increase the chances of succesful drafts, and rarely hurt your ability to find a Pro Bowler.</p><p>-DW</p> Ahh…but here is the thing.  There really isn’t any extra guarantee of drafting a star in the first round.  One only has to look at the difference in draft positions of Heath Shuler and Tom Brady to know the truth–it is a total crap shoot.  So my feeling is that the more times you roll the dice the better.

And remember the thing about these starter percentages.  There is almost no first rounder who doesn’t eventually get at least a try out as a starter.  There is too much money at stake not to try.  2nd and 3rd rounders don’t get that special treatment.  In other words, those stats have an inherant bias in them that when you correct for, it shows how little the first round matters. 

I don’t have to remind you that Bobby Bethard moved down in the draft as often as he could and it made us better.  Bethard was often accused of not getting "market value" for those trades, but if you trust your scouting and your coaching, you get way more bang for your buck.  Did all of Bethard’s picks work out?  Nope.  Not even close.  But more of them worked out than most teams partially because we had so many tries to get it right.

The final judgment as to whether to trade or not to trade has to do with who is left at 21.  Personally, I think the current draft buzz shows that the guys we’re sure about will be gone.  I’d much rather trade down and get "less then market value" than take a guy who we don’t particularly like just because it is the first round.  That’s how you end up with busts.

That’s the trend you see we bucked with Bethard’s picks.  When we selected in the first round we picked Monk or Green.  But when we traded out of the first round we were able to get more picks some of which turned into guys like Mark Rypien (one of two first rounders in a year we traded out of the first round) or Raleigh McKenzie (one of two 11 rounders when we traded out of the first round).

Admittedly, you can’t do it forever.  The Redskins went seven straight years without making a first round pick, and near the end of that run we stopped being able to find the late round gems.  This, plus the salary cap, are the two reasons the 90’s were less than stellar.  But selected moments of trading out of the first round will save money, increase the chances of succesful drafts, and rarely hurt your ability to find a Pro Bowler.

-DW

]]> By: Redskins Guy http://riggosrag.com/2008/04/14/trading-down/comment-page-1/#comment-631 Redskins Guy Tue, 15 Apr 2008 03:53:03 +0000 http://riggosrag.com/2008/04/14/trading-down/#comment-631 If the only thing you're interested is seeing him start for your team in three years.  Personally, I'd like them to be more than just starters. I'd like to have a better chance at getting someone special.  You're also ignoring current market value.  Even if statistics say it's a good move, I'd argue that we could and should get more for our 1st rounder than just a 2nd and a 3rd.  Perceived value is nearly as important as actual value. If the only thing you’re interested is seeing him start for your team in three years.  Personally, I’d like them to be more than just starters. I’d like to have a better chance at getting someone special.  You’re also ignoring current market value.  Even if statistics say it’s a good move, I’d argue that we could and should get more for our 1st rounder than just a 2nd and a 3rd.  Perceived value is nearly as important as actual value.

]]> By: dwagner http://riggosrag.com/2008/04/14/trading-down/comment-page-1/#comment-630 dwagner Tue, 15 Apr 2008 02:48:43 +0000 http://riggosrag.com/2008/04/14/trading-down/#comment-630 <p>Well, statistically, about 50% of first round picks are starting for the team three years after being picked. Roughly 40% of 2nd and 3rd rounders end up starting. (As a parenthetical, it was true a few years ago, but I haven't seen the numbers lately, that more 3rd rounders end up making it than 2nd rounders).  I don't have a statistics degree, but I'm pretty sure two shots at 40% is better than one at 50%.  While the going rate is probably more like both 2nds, the truth is that a 2nd and 3rd are more valuable than a first.</p><p>-DW</p> Well, statistically, about 50% of first round picks are starting for the team three years after being picked. Roughly 40% of 2nd and 3rd rounders end up starting. (As a parenthetical, it was true a few years ago, but I haven’t seen the numbers lately, that more 3rd rounders end up making it than 2nd rounders).  I don’t have a statistics degree, but I’m pretty sure two shots at 40% is better than one at 50%.  While the going rate is probably more like both 2nds, the truth is that a 2nd and 3rd are more valuable than a first.

-DW

]]> By: Redskins Guy http://riggosrag.com/2008/04/14/trading-down/comment-page-1/#comment-629 Redskins Guy Tue, 15 Apr 2008 02:26:18 +0000 http://riggosrag.com/2008/04/14/trading-down/#comment-629 <p>I don't care how you paint the salary cap, trading a 1st round pick for a 2nd and a 3rd is not a win.  I wouldn't mind if we got a 2nd round and a 1st round next year though. That makes sense. But let's not give our pick away for nothing.   </p> I don’t care how you paint the salary cap, trading a 1st round pick for a 2nd and a 3rd is not a win.  I wouldn’t mind if we got a 2nd round and a 1st round next year though. That makes sense. But let’s not give our pick away for nothing.  

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